Curious about Gallup's assumption that GOP voters more motivated

[featherman]

in this election. If I read their internals correctly, they are polling GOP "identifiers" as 77% excited about the election versus only 65% for DEM "identifiers". This is their rational for skewing their polls to apparently "predict" a 38-30-32 (GOP-DEM-IND) proportional voter representation in the upcoming election.

The whole idea of "identifiers" versus "registered" bothers and confuses me, however. What does this mean in the end?
If this election follows the 2000 model, there will be a 35-39-26 (GOP-DEM-IND) proportional voting by registration.(Some states don't register by party so this is based on exit polling, I believe.)

Some pollsters claim that, due to patriotic support for this (or any) incumbent, there are now more GOP identifiers but is this borne out in registration changes? To start this thread I am presenting the August 2000 (two party) pcts versus the August 2004 same for the state of Oregon. Some effect but very little change.
AUG 2000: DEM - 52.45% GOP - 47.55%
AUG 2004: DEM - 52.25% GOP - 47.75%

[tritsofme]

1. Gallup doesn't measure party affiliation only party idenification

and their claim is that people may identify with the "team" that is being percieved to be in the lead, so this means that party ID is fluid and not a factor that is set in stone.

[Mr_Spock]

3. There is a certain paradox in what you said there - they can influence

their own results by that reasoning - all they have to do is screw up one poll somewhere along the line and a paradox is put into motion...

[featherman]

5. Yeah, I know, but what does that really mean?

How does it convert to an election predictor? It seems way too fluid a basis for predicting proportional turnout of actual registered voters. Or are the exit polls which showed the 39-35-26 proportions also merely asking for party identification or for actual registration (presuming people actually answer truthfully).

[Mr_Spock]

2. They know everything, we know nothing, so I ignore their arrogant selves

I'm as confused as you about this "motivation" level. To me it sounds like they are assuming a paradigm shift where none like this has occurred in the past. They may be right, they may be wrong - personally I think they are praying every night that they are right. I think this "fuzzy math" these people are purporting borders on the criminal because of the very strong influence polls can have on the results of an election. If they are as wrong now as they were in 2000, there ought to be a criminal case brought against these folks. And if there are no laws governing this polling crap, then we need to make some - because this is serious stuff and these folks need to be held accountable for their actions.

[tritsofme]

4. They seem to see a paradigm shift like no other in this campaign

They seem to see a huge shift in party idenification over to the GOP through the past few years, and these numbers have never been measured any near this hight before, the only comparable election is 1988 when Gallup measured self party idenification at 32% each. And they have asked the exact same question for decades in terms of party idenification.

This is not my experience, this is not what I have seen around, but this is what Gallup has been consistantly measuring over the past few months.

This is latest data I have access to:

September Wave 1
Question: D9 Field Date: 9/24/2004-9/26/2004
In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Mean: N/A Total N: 1006


% N

1 Republican 38.70 389

2 Democrat 31.36 315

3 Independent 26.27 264

4 OTHER PARTY (VOL) 0.18 2

5 DON'T KNOW 1.85 19

6 REFUSED 1.65 17



This is their last poll from 2000:

General Election Tracking Poll Week 9
Question: D7 Field Date: 10/30/2000-11/5/2000
In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat or an Independent?
Mean: N/A Total N: 8197


% N

1 Republican 28.66 2349

2 Democrat 34.38 2818

3 Independent 28.80 2361

4 OTHER PARTY (vol.) 0.83 68

5 DON'T KNOW/REFUSED 7.33 601

Last poll from 1996:

General Election Tracking Poll 1996 week 9
Question: D7 Field Date: 10/28/1996-11/3/1996
In politics, as of TODAY, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat or an Independent?
Mean: N/A Total N: 6114


% N

1 Republican 28.79 1760

2 Democrat 35.80 2189

3 Independent 27.74 1696

4 OTHER PARTY (vol.) 0.86 53

5 DON'T KNOW/REFUSED 6.80 416

Last poll from 1992:

Presidential Election October Benchmark
Question: D10 Field Date: 10/23/1992-10/25/1992
In politics, as of TODAY, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat or an Independent?
Mean: N/A Total N: 1602


% N

1 Republican 29.58 474

2 Democrat 36.39 583

3 Independent 31.07 498

4 OTHER PARTY (vol.) 1.13 18

5 DON'T KNOW/REFUSED 1.84 29

Last number from 1988:

Voter Perceptions of the Presidential Campaign
Question: qn19 Field Date: 10/20/1988-10/21/1988
In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Mean: N/A Total N: 1641


% N

1 Republican 32.88 539

2 Democrat 32.79 538

3 Independent 31.56 518

4 Other 0.30 5

0 Don't Know 2.48 41


Last numbers from 1984:

The Gallup Poll #244G
Question: qn902 Field Date: 10/26/1984-10/29/1984
In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Mean: N/A Total N: 2711


% N

1 Republican 33.68 913

2 Democrat 37.60 1019

3 Independent 25.84 700

4 Other party 1.63 44

0 Undesignated 1.25 34

[Mr_Spock]

7. I saw your data in another post - I just think they are mis-focused

I just don't believe their "random" sample is the same group of people as in previous samples - it just doesn't make sense and your historical data shows that. I mean, Bush is a moron though I do think people are overly influenced by this "War on Terra" lie that the Repukes are claiming. If this data is true, and people in this country really are that gullible, good people are going to lose rights and civil war is inevitable. I hope this isn't the case.

[Awsi Dooger]

8. I'm trying to understand that data

They must think, or have subsequent sample evidence, that the 1000 person September block is representative. A survey of 1000 SHOULD be sufficient, but I have seen exceptions and severely doubt this degree of change. I realize it was the latest data you have access to.

[secular_warrior]

9. yes - there must be system wide electoral reform

The corporate media conglomerates hijacking the airwaves (e.g. Sinclair, Fox), the corporate Pundits and polls impacting momentum and outcome, and of course the problem we have with counting the votes (Diebold, Jeb purges, etc). And that's for starters.

These people are all contributing to the White Christiano-fascist hegemony of not only America, but the world.

[Mr_Spock]

11. I hope we can reform the system before the fascists take over

Sounds like alarmist talk now, but one terrorist event later and we're all wishing we were more diligent.

[naufragus]

6. in the polls i have taken

they ask you to rate your support, say 1-5.

bush is the incumbant and had no challengers, they know who he is..he is the president so they must show respect..."good" repugs will give him a 5

kerry has been thru primaries, many dems have just started to know him -- some are still staunch for dean or clark...so he probably gets more 3s and 4s.

[bagnana]

12. if that is how they are measuring enthusiasm then their

polls are ridiculous. How many articles have been written about the unprecedented hatred of Bush and co. as being the major motivating factor for dems?

[secular_warrior]

10. Anyone with an ounce of common sense

knows Democrats are foaming at the mouth to drive this unelected group of criminals out of the White House. The GOP cannot be half as motivated as we are.

The corporate media and their polling organizations are going to lose their credibility with the public after this election. They were wrong in 2000, wrong about Iraq, wrong in the Dem primaries and they are wrong now.