People are saying the new Gallup poll oversampled Republicans....

[rockymountaindem]

but where's the link people? You know better than to post stuff like that with no link....

[KittyWampus]

1. The Irresponsible Posting Of Poll Information Should Be Stopped NOW

off to post a note to Skinner.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. Exactly...

if you discuss numbers provide a link...

what's so hard about that?

[KittyWampus]

3. Not Just A Link, But Internal Information As Well

[dolstein]

4. Here's the issue

A lot of the people making this criticism are relying on exit poll information from 2000, which showed a much higher percentage of democrats than do the current Gallup Polls. The problem with this argument, however, is that it assumes there are been no change in the partisan composition of the electorate since 2000, which strikes me as completely unrealistic.

There is, however, a disagreement among pollsters are to whether these polls should be weighted based on partisan identification. Some pollsters do, others (and I believe Gallup is among them) do not. Those that don't weight their polls say that because partisan identification is constantly changing, a unweighted random sampling of voters will produce more accurate results.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

5. Rassmusen and Zogby both have the same exact numbers today

that works for me.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. Democrats Have An Edge In Identification

http://people-press.org/commentary/display.php3?AnalysisID=95


I'll make an assertion and see if it can be refuted...


I don't think there has been an election in the last forty years where more Republicans showed up at the polls than Democrats...


When Republicans win big such as in 1972 and 1984 it is because they do well with independents and attract the votes of many Democratic defectors...

[rockymountaindem]

7. Haven't people shown you, personally, Dolstein, in two other threads

that Democrats continue to lead in registration 33-29 percent? Why do you continue to say that it's possible the Republicans are ahead now and that Gallup's decision to assume that 40% of the voters will be Republicans? It's not reality, and if you'll read some of the replies to your other posts on this matter you'll see what I mean.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

8. It's Willful Ignorance

Not ignorant as in being stupid because obviously the poster is very bright but ignorant in ignoring certain facts...



Could nine percent more Reps show up at the polls than Dems?


It's theoretically possible but not within the realm of reality....

[Warpy]

12. Read it and weep

Gallup has admitted weighting their polls 38% pubbie, 30% independent and 32% Democratic.

This is what real voter registration looks like: http://people-press.org/commentary/display.php3?AnalysisID=95

As you can see, giving the GOP 38% is beyond wishful thnking and all the way into raw delusion.

Pollsters who don't weight their samples, who use large, random samples might have more accurate results, but there again, we have to consider that these are land line telephone polls, and rely on their respondents having a total lack of modern telephone technology. In other words, their respondents are more likely to be rural or elderly, and therefore slightly more conservative than a truly random sample might be. Add to that the fact that the "likely voter" is one who voted both in 2000 and 2002, and we all know what happened in 2002, and you complete the picture of why pubbies are oversampled.

Polls right now are junk, and they're not likely to get any better as time goes on. The best thing we can do is to ignore them and VOTE, and tell everyone we know to do the same.

[DaveinMD]

9. Gallup

is the only poll that has such a big margin for either candidate. That makes it an outlier. There is other evidence to suggest the partisan split is not 7 points. The new voter registration figures for one. I would venture to guess that the partisan breakdown in even at worst. Remember it was a 5 point advantage last time. I don't trust Gallup. Remember, they had Bush up by 13 shortly before the 2000 election.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. It's Disturbing Cuz The Average Joe Takes Gallup As Gospel

because of their long history...

[DaveinMD]

11. Dems

will turn out hell or high water this year. I don't worry about this poll. I think we are tied or have a slight lead.