New Newsweek Poll Kerry 46% Bush 48% Nader 1% Undecided 5%

[unfrigginreal]

Too Close to Call
With the debates behind them, the contenders in the race for the White House remain locked in a dead heat in the latest NEWSWEEK poll

Oct. 16 - With just 17 days remaining in the race to the White House, President George W. Bush and Sen. John Kerry remain locked in a dead heat, according to the NEWSWEEK poll, taken after Wednesday’s final debate in Arizona. In a three-way race with Independent candidate Ralph Nader, 48 percent of all voters say they would reelect Bush while 46 percent prefer Kerry.

Removing Nader, who draws just 1 percent of the vote, bumps the Kerry-Edwards ticket up to 47 percent, reducing the incumbent’s statistically insignificant lead to one point and suggesting that the independent candidate could pull a small number of votes away from the Democrat on Nov. 2. Before the debates began on Sept. 30, the Republican ticket held a commanding 11-point lead.

Results based on likely voters (as opposed to all registered voters) give the incumbent the edge, with Bush-Cheney pulling 50 percent of the vote and Kerry-Edwards drawing 44 percent in a three-way race (Nader still gets 1 percent). This suggests that turnout will be critical in determining the outcome of the election: Kerry now leads Bush 57 percent to 36 percent among those who identify themselves as first-time voters. The number of voters who say they are still open to switching candidates is actually fairly small, but still large enough to determine the popular vote winner: One in ten (11 percent) registered voters are still uncommitted.

Bush has a clear advantage with women, who prefer him 49 percent to 43 percent. Kerry has a slight edge with men, 50 percent to 46 percent. Kerry commands 50 percent of the youth vote (with Bush at 41 percent) and 54 percent of the senior vote (to Bush's 39 percent.) But Bush dominates the 30-49 set (56 percent to 39 percent). Voters aged 50 to 64 are split evenly, with 46 percent backing Bush and 48 percent Kerry.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6260444/site/newsweek/

[rockymountaindem]

1. What are the internals?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

9. The Poll's Internals Make No Sense At All

Bush is losing among men but winning among women...


That stands over two decades of voting behavior on it's head...

[rockymountaindem]

15. That's definately odd.

I don't know what to believe anymore... Perhaps I should log off and just wait it out until election day :)

[BootinUp]

17. I don't even want to read the article

for some reason.

Can anyone tell me how the flying F they justify these numbers (internal numbers on women?)

[DemocratSinceBirth]

23. Even Reagan Cleaned Mondale's Clock The Gender Gap Existed

nt

[natrat]

18. that fear thing that repubs promote may have

taken its toll on female voters-i heard this woman call into cspan and she said "I'm voting for Bush because he will protect me"---a complete load of shit but that may be what's going on

[rockymountaindem]

21. No, there were other polls showing us with at 12 point lead with women.

I think this "security moms" thing is a story created by the media. Most of them were going to vote for Bush anyway.

[freeplessinseattle]

25. must be his animal magnetism (nt)

[private_ryan]

28. that's all I needed to discount this

even freepers would agree that the opposite is true

[nixonwasbetterthanW]

2. early voters questions:

Are early voters always weighted toward Democratic side? Or is this an indication that Kerry folks are significantly more motivated to actually cast ballots?

[IndianaGreen]

3. here is the link

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6260444/site/newsweek/

turnout will be the key....

[rndmprsn]

8. don't you love it how when kerry is up by a couple points its...

"too close to call", but when the same happens to shrub, its usually this..."bush SURGES ahead!"

ugh!

[IndianaGreen]

29. This election will be determined by turnout

I am adjusting my work schedule so that I can have a couple of hours left before the polls close to drive as many people as I can to their polling places. Even though Indiana is a solid red state (an argument can be made about changing the law to allow for proportional allocation of Electoral votes), it is important to get people to vote for our liberal Democratic candidates that are running for federal, state, and local office. They often have more of an impact in our lives than the Beltway crowd.

So if you live in a solid red state, we still have good progressive candidates to elect to office.

[Tesibria]

4. link please?

[Tesibria]

6. gracie! sorry!

[DemFromMem]

5. Groan, MSNBC has Newsweek guy on suggesting Kerry's Momentum stopped

He said that the third debate did not help Kerry and the Mary Cheney fallout may have helped Bush.

He did note, however, that Kerry is doing quite well with newly registered voters and this is the wildcard. So, again, if we get our people out, we win. Forget the polls. Turnout is the deciding factor.

[Doosh]

7. 48-47 w/o Nader, pretty much a dead heat, at this point...

...we need to focus more on individual state polls rather then national polls.

[Doosh]

10. what was the last newsweek poll?

[rjbny62]

26. last Newsweek Poll: Sep 30-Oct 2 had Kerry up 2%

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Sept. 30-Oct. 2, 2004. N=1,013 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 4 (for all registered voters). Sept. 30 interviewing limited to Pacific and Mountain time zones, after the presidential debate concluded.

.

"Suppose the election were being held TODAY and you had the following three choices for president and vice president: George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans; John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats; and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo, the independent or third party candidates. Who would you vote for?" If none of these: "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Bush and Cheney, the Republicans; Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats; or Nader and Camejo?"

.

Bush/
Cheney Kerry/
Edwards Nader/
Camejo Other (vol.)/
Undecided
% % % %
ALL 45 47 2 6
Men 45 47 2 6
Women 44 48 1 7
Republicans 89 6 2 3
Democrats 12 86 0 2
Independents 37 42 4 17
.

Trend:
9/9-10/04 49 43 2 6
9/2-3/04 52 41 3 4
7/29-30/04 42 49 3 6
7/8-9/04 44 47 3 6

[unfrigginreal]

11. This poll is REALLY screwed up

Yeah, Bush leads with women and Kerry leads with men. Right.

These folks have no credibility whatsoever.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. See Post Nine...

Also, link the Washington Post Poll...

www.washingtonpost.com

I think Bush leads around 10 among men but Kerry leads around 8 with women...

The reason this comes out as a 48-48 race is because women are a larger percentage of the vote....

These polls are giving me a headache...

[59millionmorons]

12. This poll is ass backwords

Kerry leads among men and Bush leads among women. I think it is safe to disregard this poll.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

22. Double Checked Wash Post...

kerry's winning by 8 among women on losing by 10 among men...

Don't forget these polls have a confidence level of 95%...


This is the one poll out of twenty you can throw in the crapper...

These polls are making my head spin...

[BootinUp]

13. No way Bush has a lead with women.

I just refuse to believe it.

Election exit polls will show that as the biggest miscalculation of all time.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. I Think The Cheney Comment Hurt Us A Bit With Women

with the emphasis on the word "bit" but not by this amount....


And I didn't see anything which would cause a fourteen point shift in the male vote in our favor...

Princenton Research...

They are giving polling a bad name....

[BootinUp]

24. What makes you think that comment

would hurt with women, I mean disproportionately vs. with men?

I tend to think it would work the other way if at all.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

27. I Think The Comment Hurt Just A Little Bit..

I'm not a woman but women are more empathetic...

I can see a woman thinking that Kerry hurt the Cheney's feelings..

Who knows...

I just know that Kerry is not losing the women vote while winning the male vote...

[The Zanti Regent]

19. Folks, this is NEWSPEAK's typical GOP lies

This is after all, NEWSPEAK, which houses such liars as Whoreward Fineman and Lying Mikey Kiss My Assikoff!

[DaveinMD]

20. I wouldn't believe

any poll that has Kerry leading with men and losing with women.