Some interesting stats point to a decisive Kerry win!

[Quixote1818]

I was looking at an article in USA Today and it has some interesting stats.

In 1980 Carter lead Reagan by three points going into the debates. After all the debates were over Reagan had taken a two point lead then went on to win by TEN POINTS!!!! Sound familiar???


2004 - Bush lead kerry by 8 points going into the debates. After the debates Kerry now leads Bush by 1 point according to USA Today. If the trend we saw from Reagan Carter hold true then Kerry will win a lot bigger than we think. Tim Russert said that these kinds of elections are usually not very close and he expects undecideds to start falling heavily one direction or the other. A commentator on PBS said that incumbents historically have been very hard to beat however in the past 45 years that trend has changed because of televised debates. Since then Carter was not re-elected, Ford was not re-elected and Bush 1 was not re-elected. Voters seem to now have a flavor for trying something new if what they have seems only average or below average. Kerry has absolutely all the momentum right now. I expect Kerry to win Nationally by at least three points. Also Zogby reported that 49% of voters want someone new. Kerry simply had to show he was more competent than Bush to win and he has done that. All we have to worry about now is an October surprise.

[craiga86]

1. They didn't have electronic voting then though

You never know. I think if all votes are counted, Kerry wins by a landslide, but over course that never happens, and basically it will depend on how many of these votes aren't counted. Your already seeing voter fraud around the country now with a few blatant cases, last year we WON, but the end result wasn't quite what we wanted. Lets hope this election is a bit more fair than the last one.

[Quixote1818]

3. If exit polling contradicts results their will be hell to pay!!!!!

[AndyTiedye]

5. They'll Just Bury the Exit Polls Again

Like they did in 2000 and 2002.

[flyingfysh]

2. there's not much of October left

If * wants to spring an October surprise, he'd better hurry up.

[ROH]

7. Which calendar do you use?

There is still over half of October left?

[Qutzupalotl]

4. One more (anecdotal)

No president with a one-syllable name has won a second term.

[quaoar]

8. Ulysses Grant

Served two terms: 1869-1877

[dolstein]

6. There are two big problems with your comparison

First of all, Carter's approval ratings were much, much lower than Bush's are today. So Carter's standing was much weaker with regard to the electorate as a whole than Bush's standing is today.

Second, Carter faced a badly divided party. He was challeneged by Kennedy in the primaries, and many disaffected liberals ended up voting for John Anderson. The Republican Party is still overwhelmingly united. Bush faced no primary competition, and will likely get the votes of at least 90% of Republicans, comparable to what he got in 2000.

[Quixote1818]

9. You are right and that is why I didn't pick Kerry to win by 10 points

I picked him to win by three or more.