I don't see how anyone could score this debate as a win for Bush

[dolstein]

I thought Kerry missed plenty of opportunities tonight. But he still turned in a pretty thoughtful and articulate performance. The fact is, Kerry has been pretty consistent throughout this series of debate. And I think he's accomplished what he set out today -- he has proven himself to be a credible alternative to the incumbet. Only a partisan Republican would come away from these debates frightened about the prospect of a Kerry presidency. The independents and undecided had to be reassured by Kerry's calm, steady and downright confident presence, as well as his obvious command over a wide range of policy matters. He has demonstrated that he is up to the job, and in doing so, he has effectively neutralized the last argument the Bush campaign had left. Bush clearly couldn't get reelected based on his job performance. The only thing he could do was to brand Kerry as an unacceptable alternative. Bush clearly failed.

But let's not get overconfident. A lot of things could happen in the last few weeks to shake up this race, including a terrorist attack, the capture of Osama bin Laden, or measurable improvements in Iraq. We still don't know what effect Sinclair will have. And there's still time for Kerry to make a gaffe that the Bush campaign will no doubt exploit.

But if none of these things happen, if the campaign simple moves into autopilot, I think Kerry can pull this one out. I believe it would still be very close, with no more than 2% separating the candidates in the popular vote, and with no more than 20 or so electoral votes separating them.

[Bucky]

1. Good analysis, but I still don't like over confidence. It's Goreish.

They seem to have oversold the "Kerry is an idiot" message. This, ironically lowered expectations for Kerry to look competant. Obviously they had the wrong messengers for that particular line of attack as well. Their switching over to the standby "liberal from Taxachusetts" attack shows that even they know a losing strategy when they see one.

If you don't count the economy or foreign policy that is.

[KellyPaDem]

2. Are you kidding me?

These people can turn the war in Iraq and the fact that they DIDN'T find weapons of mass distruction into a GOOD thing. As much as I hate to admit it, the b/c campaign is great at making nothing into something and vice versa.

[dolstein]

3. Did you read my second paragraph?

I'm saying there are a lot of things that can happen.

But there's also the possiblility that that things could get frozen in place. I think a lot of people, particularly the partisans on each side, are simply going to tune out at this point.

I certainly don't underestimate the ability of Bush/Cheney to seize the agenda. But I'm not a defeatist either. Some of the new people Kerry has added to his campaign, particularly people like Joe Lockhart and Mike McCurry, have proven their worth.

[killbotfactory]

4. If Bush doesn't pee himself, or projectile vomit on the moderator..

Repubs will try and spin it as a win.

All Bush has are soundbytes and lies.

Whenever Kerry points out one of his failures, all he can do is spout nonsense about Kerry not being credible.

It's sad that some people like the man and can't see through his bullshit.

[Julien Sorel]

5. Two things can happen.

One is the spending disadvantage catches Kerry at the end. Bush has more money at his disposal, I think both from the 75 million matching funds, and from the "non-candidate" groups like the Swift Hoaxers. The disparity in ad spending has the potential to favor Bush.

The other, and the huge problem I see, is the media. The coverage they gave Gore at the end of 2000 was unfair, and tended to reinforce the image of Gore Bush was trying to paint. If they play ball again, it can hurt Kerry badly. The media certainly played ball with the whole Swift Hoax thing, having them on at every opportunity, and inventing bizarre rationalizations that dovetailed perfectly with Republican talking points: "If Kerry can't defend against this, then he can't protect the country from terrorism!" was the general thrust.

It feels like there's an eternity between now and election day for some kind of anti-Kerry theme to take root and fester, and this time there will be no nationally televised debates to show people what Kerry is really about. He has to depend on the "professionalism" of fat, mean spirited hacks like Too Much Candy Crowley, and people of her ilk, to get a fair shake.

Crowley was already parroting Bush talking points after the debate tonight, from what I read. Her line was, "If people want a good debater, then Kerry is that," which is word for word what the Republicans said after the first debate. I have no doubt she's going to keep that kind of shit up right until November 2nd, and there are a whole lot of people like her covering Kerry (most of them are slimmer, however).