MSNBC's State Poll Round-Up: Kerry on the move in AZ, OH!

[VolcanoJen]

They cited the Chicago Tribune's Battleground States Poll, which can be found here:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/specials/elections/chi-0410130235oct13,1,7574555.story?coll=chi-news-hed

Also cited was the Arizona Republic Poll, which I can't find a link for.

---

ARIZONA Likely Voters(from The Arizona Republic)

MOE +/- 5% pts

Bush: 49%
Kerry: 44%

OHIO Likely Voters (from the Chicago Tribune)

MOE +/- 4% pts

Kerry: 49%
Bush: 45%

IOWA Likely Voters (Chicago Tribune)

MOE +/- 4% pts

Bush: 47%
Kerry: 45%

MINNESOTA Likely Voters (Chicago Tribune)

MOE +/- 4% pts

Kerry: 45%
Bush: 43%

WISCONSIN Likely Voters (Chicago Tribune)

MOE +/- 4% pts

Kerry: 47%
Bush: 43%

---

The MSNBC reporter stressed that in the midwest, it appears that issues like health care and the economy are driving the movement toward Kerry.

The Chicago Tribune article has this crucial piece of information at the bottom:

In each of the four states and across much of the country, the number of new voters is believed to have grown considerably, leading some to wonder whether public opinion surveys are capturing a true snapshot of the electorate.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

1. Good news, but I still somehow doubt we lose Iowa.

[LisaM]

2. I can't believe * will take either Iowa or Wisconsin

People there are too smart.

[DU9598]

4. Thanks

I too don't think Bush will take either Iowa or Wisconsin. Don't know if I base that on our intelligence, but Iowa is historically pacifist. I cannot see us voting for a voluntary, unprovoked war maker. It just doesn't fit our political culture. Remember, even Charles Grassley voted against Gulf War I.

[Cha]

12. Glad to have you on the ground there

in Iowa!

[VolcanoJen]

6. I'm just ecstatic that things are turning around in Ohio!

:bounce: :bounce: :bounce:

We've been hit by job losses harder than any other battleground state, and it's about time Buckeyes held Bush responsible.

You know, if we can just win Pennsylvania, and either Florida or Ohio, this thing is in the bag. I have a feeling we'll win all three, PLUS Iowa and Wisconsin. :D

[Kukesa]

9. Think LANDSLIDE in Ohio, Jen -- LANDSLIDE! n/t

[faithnotgreed]

22. you and your daughter have been working hard, i know

thank you so much for getting out the truth and getting out the vote in the great state of ohio!

[Kukesa]

25. Wow! How nice of you. It's the least we can do for our country. n/t

[yellowcanine]

3. Good GOTV should carry Kerry over in all of these states, imo.

I believe Kerry is close enough in all of these states that a good ground game will do it if the reports of voter registration are accurate.

[hippiegranny]

5. it is difficult to believe Bush is ahead here in AZ

all I see is Kerry stickers EVERYWHERE. But then, I am in the "big city" and the religiously insane out in the burbs are probably gearing up the wards to get out en masse for the milli vanilli pRes.

[dolstein]

8. Not if you know anything about Arizona politics

At the presidential level, Arizona has traditionally been a Republican state. While Bill Clinton carried Arizona in 1996, he did so by only 2 points, and having Perot on the ballot likely helped. Gore lost the state in 2000. John McCain, the most popular politician in Arizona, is actively campaigning for Bush.

The fact that Bush is leading in Arizona really shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone. Arizona was always going to be tough for Kerry. Winnable perhaps, but tough. And the fact is, in the final weeks of the campaign, Kerry simply doesn't have enough time or money to go all out in every battleground state. It seems likely that the Kerry campaign is going to focus on states like Ohio and Florida, which appear to be more competitive and where far more electoral votes are at stake.

[expatriot]

7. We will kick *'s a$$ in GOTV here in Arizona

In Yuma County, where DEM's have a VR edge but have not a presidential election (countywide) since LBJ in 1964, VR has risen over 15% in the past 2 months and 22,000 VBM (earlies) have already been sent out. To put that in perspective, in 2000 only 27,000 people voted TOTAL. We have at least a 2,500 VBM over the Republicans and we sent out a LOT (# prolly shouldn't be released) VBM's to Democrats who have never voted before. And this is a county the Republicans count on. We are going to beat them here.

The Repugs are over-confident here. They think they don't have to work. Classic tortoise and the hare.

[Cha]

13. Thank you, for that report from

Yuma!

[demzilla]

20. Yes, something's in the air in Arizona

Our GOTV efforts are going to count for a point or two. The Democratic party has never been this energized or organized.

Our canvassing tells me there are a lot of indys and even Reps who have had it with Chimpy. Reps hold a 5-point registration edge here, but there are a number of moderate Reps who can't abide the religious right and who may have doubts about the war.

Other than welcoming him to AZ for the debate, McCain isn't campaigning actively for Bush here that I have seen.

My sense is we're only slightly behind Chimpy statewide, and that tonight's debate could boost Kerry's momentum here.

Don't count us out.

[Desertrose]

24. Here in N Az I see way more Kerry signs than *

and if I could get my hands on more signs....they'd be out too!!!

I think people are going to be surprised...some of us in a good way and the others...well...not so good.
:evilgrin:

(even my ex...a repub in PA is voting Kerry!!)

[Cha]

10. What's bush done for Iowa in the last

four years that makes it want to go for him instead of how they felt in 2000?

[Sean Reynolds]

11. Kerry takes Ohio, and every Gore state (except New Mexico) and he wins.

Kerry: 275
Bush: 263

[yellowcanine]

16. That's too close for comfort - we need at least 300 to be comfortable.

I am hoping Florida provides the winning edge - or maybe Virginia - that would be sweet.

[StevenD]

14. Up in Florida too!

Talked with a friend of mine on the phone this morning. He is working for the Kerry campaign in Florida. I asked him if he was privy to any internal polling. He told me that they were up by about 2 points in FL based on the campaigns own polls.

[deadparrot]

15. Go, Ohio!

I also tend to think IA will ultimately go blue.

[Norbert]

17. Gas prices, baby. Gas prices.

This and the debate outcomes will be the downfall of bushco. Today on southwest Ohio gas prices went over $2/gallon again. This isn't sitting well with a state populated by fiscal conservatives.

Ohio had one of the must successful voter registration drives of any state. So successful that dirtbag Ken Blackwell is still trying to find out ways to throw out some Dem. voter registrations.

Mark my work. Ohio is going blue.

[AzDar]

18. Here in AZ, I began noticing a HUGE increase in Kerry/ Edwards gear...

in about the last 3 weeks..(related to the debates?)My theory is that people here weren't necessarily influenced by the debates as far as for whom they are voting, but Dumbya's poor performances may have emboldened those supporting Kerry enough to break out the stickers/signs. Here's to more of the same tonight!!

[faithnotgreed]

23. right on azdar! the debates have proven what weve known all along:

kerry is the guy we need

he has integrity and isnt a schmoozer. i value that deeply and would far rather have someone grounded like kerry than any other politician.

[Doosh]

19. but Strategic Vision(R) is at it again

they've completely fucked up electoral-vote.com, I don't know why the webmaster would ever include such a partisan polling group.

[montana500]

21. simple

"they've completely fucked up electoral-vote.com, I don't know why the webmaster would ever include such a partisan polling group."


Because he is on crack.