electoral-vote.com has become obsolete

[montana500]

I just found out they are run by a Rover. Please ignore this sight from now on.

Also ,ad to this that today he used the polls from two Repubican polling firms (strategic vision and rasnussen) over a new abc/Chicago Tribune poll in Ohio, Wisc, and Minnesota.

Ignore this guy, he has been playing us for fools.

[rocktivity]

1. And he complained yesterday he's under the forces of alien hackers?

That certainly has a Rovian ring to it.

:headbang:
rocknation

[endnote]

29. It's a STUPID SITE because it takes no MOE info into account!

Believe me. Statistically it's a silly site. it makes no sense to arbitrarily say that a 3% lead is a mid-size lead if you don't take into account the margin of error. A 3% lead with a MOE of 4% is not a lead. A lead of 2% with an MOE of 1% is real.

[Name removed]

2. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Arancaytar]

3. So he's lying when he says that

"I am a Kerry supporter. I am open about that. Despite my political preference, I have bent over backwards to be scrupulously honest about all the numbers, and have carefully designed the main page to be strictly nonpartisan. Only the third row of menu items below the map contains material that could be considered pro-Kerry (e.g., jokes about George Bush)."

Considering the constant oscillating of his result, I wouldn't be surprised if they're unreliable, but where did you find the Rove evidence?

[Warpy]

6. It's only vaguely circumstantial

He's been using the latest results, not filtering them for bogus polls by GOP organizations using tiny samples and suspect methods. The biggest culprit skewing this site seems to be Survey USA, allied with the Gannett Publishing Corp. and using samples of only 500-600 people, most probably from the subscriber lists to Gannett's decidedly GOP newspapers. Their polls are pretty reliably pro Bush, and since they're done with such alarming frequency, they skew the electoral-vote.com map nicely to Bush.

Why would the Bushies bother? Well, consider the psychology of telling people that another Bush term is simply inevitable. Why bother to make the effort to vote for the certain loser?

Whether or not this guy is in bed with Rove is debatable. However, he's doing the Rovian work of trying to discourage Democratic voters very nicely by running suspect polls.

[Renew Deal]

4. I won't ignore him.

I just don't take it seriously. His archives are loaded with all of the polls including the ones he doesn't use. We all know Strategic Vision is full of shit.

[yellowcanine]

9. I have problems with his use of Rasmussen as well - in general, I think

a person running a site like that has to make some distinctions about polling methodology or else take an average of all polls within the past week or so. It is just nuts to put Rasmussen on the same level with Zogby, for example, and replace a Zogby result with a Rasmussen result just because the Zogby result is one day older.

[Onlooker]

5. What's your evidence?

His site is one of the better sites, and often awards Kerry more electoral votes than other sites. He has posted his methodology and has stated that he is a Kerry supporter. I think his site is pretty good, especially because it's updated every day.

[montana500]

7. a friend of mine is the source

but look at the polls he uses. He uses Rasmussen and Strategic Vision, both (r) pollsters.

[LoZoccolo]

17. Ha what if he's just some guy that thinks so. n/t

[demokatgurrl]

22. He uses every poll he can get his hands on,

I think. I don't see it- any further reasons why you say that?
I like the state graphs- they show interesting (proKerry) trends lately too.

[Lerkfish]

24. a friend of a low count poster....hmmm..damn that's incriminating.

(/sarcasm)

[quaoar]

8. I think he's trying to be fair

He posted this today:

"Personally, I have my doubts about Strategic Vision, but I am sticking to my rule of using the poll with the most recent middle date, and breaking ties in favor of the shortest poll, and averaging tied shortest polls."

The Strategic Vision polls are what is skewing the map in Bush's favor today.

[Teaser]

10. Come off it.

Your "source" is wrong.

The guy at electoral-vote.com is a Kerry supporter. He uses all polls, Republican and Democratic.

You don't know what you are talking about.

[MarkTwain]

12. I Agree Completely....

... his site has been one of the best and most consitent in its methodolgy.

This smear is deplorable and until the author of this thread can fully support his charge of an affiliation with Rove with something far more substantive than an anonymous "friend" as the source and a challenge of one or two polling mechanisms, I will consider this just another specious attempt at "shooting the messenger" as opposed to accepting the message.

Moreover, to do this to an avowed Kerry supporter who has been devoting significant time, energy, and effort, I can only say: nasty; very nasty, indeed. Shame on this thread!

[LiberalCat]

11. My problem is its lack of consistency.

The numbers bounce up and down a great deal, like the opinions of a bipolar undecided.

Also, to use various polls and not account for bias tells us nothing.

[BUSHOUT]

13. Read his front page....I think he's trying to be fair.

See where he says:

I started to average the recent polls, but so many people complained, I dropped the idea. To compare the pollsters, see the pollsters page. Personally, I have my doubts about Strategic Vision, but I am sticking to my rule of using the poll with the most recent middle date, and breaking ties in favor of the shortest poll, and averaging tied shortest polls.

He's starting to have "doubts" about strategic vision, and so he should! It's a GOP pollster....but that can't be proved. It's well known accross the internet though. His rule is unless a pollster is caught with pants down by media, he continues to use them.

But it sounds like he'll start cutting them out. THEN well start to see some more accuracy.

[w4rma]

14. I'm going to keep using him. I trust him. (nt)

[BUSHOUT]

15. WTF is a "rover" anyway?

[LoZoccolo]

16. I've been to London, seen seven wonders...

I know to trip is just to fall.
I used to rock it, sometimes I'd roll it,
I always knew what it was for.

There can be no denyin'
That the wind 'll shake 'em down
An' the flag we're flyin'
Is the new flag of the land.

If we could just join hands. If we could just join hands.
If we could just join!

- Led Zeppelin, "The Rover"

[BUSHOUT]

18. Ah, to the Brits a "rover" goes a walkin' cross the beautiful countryside.

But what's an internet rover in the context of he who posted this rightwing trash?

[demokatgurrl]

23. I think the proper term is "Rovian" n/t

[wadestock]

19. Wait a minute....

I've been reading this daily....this sounds like an off the cuff attack to me...this guy has been attempting to come up with more meaningful methodologies than most....including multiple polls and performing averaging to try and avoid what might be certain biases. But just today he talked about going away from the averaging because people were complaining. One criticism I do have is too many shifts in approach...but I took this to mean he was actually trying to find a better way.

Of all the electoral predictions I've watched over the last week...he appears to be the only consistent one which showed an electoral shift to Kerry after debate 1.

Meanwhile...as you can see on the TV news and most others....most of the US map has stayed red.

I find the daily explanations and insights, especially yesterday's message that his server has been attacked in a big strategic way.... impossible to contrive to the point that you could believe this guy is a freeper. This guy has MANY times come up with some good insights into how many of the pollsters might be playing games.

[Clinton Crusader]

20. He's a Kerry supporter...

I dont see this happening.
:kick:

[RichardRay]

21. Horse pucky

Follow his results for a few weeks, see what happens as new polls come out, check his commentaries on how each changes the presentation and his regular critiques of how some pollsters work. Read the background material he provides.

In other words, PAY ATTENTION, don't just go off on some rant because you don't like what your buddy saw yesterday.

Try to keep up, OK?

Richard Ray - Jackson Hole, WY

[montana500]

25. nice, but no cigar

How about *you* try to keep up.

Why is he using partisan pollsters? If not for Rasmussen and Strategic Vision, Kerry would be up 300 + EV votes. Todays Tribune polls, along wih the latest ARG would have Kerry up in Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Florida.

There is no democratic counter to the daily Rasmussen polls or the strategic vision, so they *should not be posted*. Only mainstream polls should be considered. His methodology is clearly wrong.

The question is, why?

[montana500]

26. ?

A new Chicago Tribune poll with Nader in Iowa has Bush in the lead.
A new Chicago Tribune poll with Nader in Minnesota has Kerry in the lead.
A new Chicago Tribune poll with Nader in Wisconsin has Kerry in the lead.
A new Chicago Tribune poll without Nader in Ohio has Kerry in the lead.
A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Kansas has Bush in the lead.
A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Rhode Island has Kerry in the lead.
A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Texas has Bush in the lead.
A new Survey USA poll without Nader in New York has Kerry in the lead.
A new Survey USA poll without Nader in Oregon has Kerry in the lead.
A new Market Solutions Group poll without Nader in Minnesota has Kerry in the lead.
A new Rasmussen ($) poll without Nader in Wisconsin has Bush in the lead.
A new Rasmussen ($) poll without Nader in Alabama has Bush in the lead.
A new Rasmussen poll without Nader in Iowa has Kerry in the lead.
A new F-D University ($) poll without Nader in New Jersey has Kerry in the lead.
A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll with Nader in New Jersey has Kerry in the lead.
A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll without Nader in New Jersey has Kerry in the lead.
A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll with Nader in Wisconsin has Bush in the lead.
A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll without Nader in Wisconsin has Bush in the lead.
A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll with Nader in Pennsylvania has Bush in the lead.
A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll without Nader in Pennsylvania has Bush and Kerry tied.
A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll with Nader in Ohio has Bush in the lead.
A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll without Nader in Ohio has Bush in the lead.
A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll with Nader in Iowa has Bush in the lead.
A new Strategic Vision ($, GOP) poll without Nader in Iowa has Bush in the lead.

[RichardRay]

27. Because it's a polling summary

not a partisan site.

The information from the site is the result of watching it day after day over time, not from glancing at it once or once in awhile. In that time you'll see the changes as the partisan polls kick in and then age and fall off. You'll learn what's going on by seeing it happen over time; you'll draw your own conclusions.

Have you read his background material? His descriptions of each polling organization, their methodologies, their strengths and weaknesses? Have you downloaded to raw data and gone through it to learn how each day's updates effect the map he presents? Have you compared his results with single polls from outside the universe he includes?

The site is not sound bites (data bites?), it needs to be followed over time. If you just look at a single poll result all you get is data, and only a single data point at that. Information comes from making sense out of the data, and I believe electoral-vote.com provides information AND the underlying data. If you find a reason to doubt the information be presents then go ahead and take a look at the data and see where the difference arises, but don't dismiss him as a 'Rovian operative'.

Richard Ray - Jackson Hole, WY

[IIgnoreNobody]

28. His site merely collects and distributes polling data.

If you don't like his site, ignore it. Branding him as a 'Rover' becuase you wish he ignored certain polls is childish.