Third debate looms as Kerry expands lead

[montana500]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6225300/

Bush, Kerry
stump ahead
of final debate
Democrat expands lead
in national tracking poll
Updated: 10:47 a.m. ET Oct. 11, 2004WASHINGTON - Two days before their final debate, John Kerry promised to work for the middle class and energy independence while President Bush launched a foray to Western battleground states.



Meanwhile, a new Reuters/Zogby poll showed that Kerry had expanded his lead over Bush to three points. The Massachusetts senator held a 47-44 percent lead over Bush in the latest three-day tracking poll, up two points from Sunday. Bush’s support dropped one point and Kerry’s support rose one point in the new poll.

The close race turns up the pressure for Wednesday’s final debate in Tempe, Ariz., when the White House rivals will have another chance to make their case to voters on domestic issues.

The poll found six percent of likely voters are still undecided about the race with barely more than three weeks to go until the Nov. 2 election, and 16 percent of the voters who identify themselves as independents are undecided.

Bush made small gains among young voters and Kerry picked up strength among women voters ahead of the debate — the final chance for both candidates to speak directly to an audience of millions of voters.

“Wednesday’s debate is vital because many sub-groups remain close and because so many independents have yet to make up their minds,” pollster John Zogby said.

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The poll of 1,214 likely voters was taken Friday through Sunday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The rolling poll will continue through Nov. 1 — the day before the election.

The last two days of polling came after Bush and Kerry battered each other over Iraq, jobs and taxes during a debate on Friday. The economy and Iraq are consistently listed as the top issues in the race.

A tracking poll combines the results of three consecutive nights of polling, then drops the first night’s results each time a new night is added. It allows pollsters to record shifts in voter sentiment as they happen.

Setting the stage for his Wednesday meeting with Bush, Kerry told a small crowd in Albuquerque on Sunday that Bush worked for the special interests, not their interests.

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“The president makes his choices,” Kerry said. “The president’s chosen the oil companies and the power companies. He’s chosen the drug companies over you.

“When I’m president, I’m fighting for the middle class in America.”

Speaking to voters in a state that supports major government research labs in Sandia and Los Alamos, Kerry said he would push those scientists to develop alternative fuels.

“We’re going to get them moving to get us into alternative, renewable energy. We’re going to start making America energy-independent,” the Massachusetts senator said.

Bush takes a day off the trail
Bush, meanwhile, spent one day off the campaign trail, relaxing on Sunday at his central Texas ranch and engaging in informal preparations for the debate.

On Monday, he stops in the far southeastern corner of New Mexico for a morning rally in the town of Hobbs, to begin several days of travel in the West, considered a second-tier battleground region behind the upper Midwest and big swing states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida.

Later Monday, Bush hosts a lunch fund-raiser in Denver for Republican Pete Coors, who is running for a Senate seat being vacated by GOP Sen. Ben Nighthorse Campbell, and has another campaign rally at the scenic Red Rocks amphitheater.

Starting last week with a retooled stump speech and highlighted in their second debate, held Friday in St. Louis, Bush has delighted Republican supporters with a harder-hitting stance against Kerry.

Hoping to stunt the momentum the Massachusetts senator gained from a much-praised showing in the first debate and a week of difficult news for Bush on Iraq and the economy, aides are signaling the anti-Kerry arsenal is far from depleted.

'A lot more' in Kerry's record
“There’s a lot more in (Kerry’s) record that the American people are going to hear and know about by the time it’s all over,” said Karl Rove, Bush’s chief political adviser.

Looking ahead to the final debate, set to focus entirely on domestic issues, Bush is devoting more time to talking about Kerry’s record on taxes, health care and other domestic issues.

In the process, he is seeking to drive home two main characterizations of his rival: that Kerry is a die-hard liberal who lacks credibility because he tries to paint himself as otherwise. It’s the domestic version of the weak, flip-flopping image the Bush team has tried to attach to Kerry on Iraq and the war on terror.

[My Pet Goat]

1. I'm sure glad the Zogby poll is getting some...

big media attention in the form of MSNBC and Reuters. I'll take it.

[Norquist Nemesis]

2. Don't forget to vote in the interactive poll

if you haven't already. :)

[snippy]

3. Rove is going to try and force Kerry and Edwards off the issues.

“There’s a lot more in (Kerry’s) record that the American people are going to hear and know about by the time it’s all over,” said Karl Rove, Bush’s chief political adviser.

Rove wants to put Kerry and Edwards on the defensive. Rove has done this several times in the last few months. Kerry can't fall into this trap. He needs to hammer on the fact that as the scrutiny of the candidates by the voters is increasing Bush is all of a sudden trying to change the subject.

[regnaD kciN]

5. The one thing I'm worried about...

...is that, after the debates, there will be nearly three weeks left before the election. That's three weeks where the only coverage will be "dueling soundbites" and campaign ads -- an ideal time for the Bush campaign to stage another multi-million-dollar saturation ad campaign attacking Kerry's character, hoping to make people consider the debates "so last month" while recasting the election as a referendum on Kerry's alleged "betrayal of his fellow troops," "tax-and-spend Massachusetts liberalism," etc., etc. (In this, the Sinclair gambit is, I suspect, only the tip of the iceberg.)

Since there aren't going to be any more major events that will draw extended news coverage, Kerry's campaign is only going to be to combat this with ads of their own -- I hope they have both the financial resources and a good strategy for handling the sure-to-come Repug onslaught.

[snippy]

6. Exactly. Kerry needs to talk about the economy and Iraq.

He can not spend the last three weeks talking about what Rove wants to talk about.

[AndyTiedye]

7. and many more "Major Policy Speeches" aka Free Bush* Ads

Boosh has unlimited access to the media, whereas Kerry will be able
to buy a few minutes a day, tops.

It looks as if McGreevy has been blackmailed into throwing NJ to Boosh.
Maryland is at risk because of Diebold.
Wisconsin is much more reddish than it should be.
Florida is still Florida and still own3d by the BFEE.
I am confident that more voters will vote for Kerry,
but that's not good enough to win, as we saw in 2000.
We have an uphill fight.

[Downtown Hound]

4. That's what I'm talkin' about!

Yeah baby!