A one-state solution in Palestine is patently unrealistic

[oberliner]

Excerpt:

But Israeli right-wing wishful thinking pales compared to that of Palestinians who appear to believe that if they advocate a one-state solution it could somehow become a reality. Put simply, the vast majority of Israeli Jews would not agree to live in a binational Israeli state. Hypothetically, if for some cataclysmic reason they could no longer live in a Jewish, democratic state in their historic homeland, they would prefer renewed dispersion and Diaspora to life in a binational Arab-Jewish (essentially Muslim-Jewish) state that by definition would not be Zionist and would almost certainly quickly relegate Jews to the status of a persecuted minority. Nor do Israelis intend to let that "cataclysmic reason" come to pass.

Precisely because Palestinians who proffer a one-state solution do not have a Jewish negotiating partner, the threat to somehow revert to this position (most recently voiced by PLO's chief peace negotiator Ahmed Qorei) unless Israel is more forthcoming in two-state solution negotiations is totally counter-productive. Not only does it not soften the Israeli negotiating position - it generates indifference or even hostility.

In traditional "stick and carrot" terms, the Palestinians making this threat are beating themselves with their own stick.

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=5&article_id=95198

[PFunk]

1. A one-state solution for the isreal/palestian problem is IMO the only way to go.

Anything else would just either continue or intensifly the problem. Both groups have claim to the land, It's about time both should learn to live on it together on it.

[BioDan]

2. Did you read the article?

The one-state solution ultimately leads to a Muslim majority, and the end of any semblance of a Jewish state. You are replacing the only Jewish nation with yet another Muslim nation, and creation a situation where it is favourable for the Jewish population to leave. It's a great deal if you want to destroy Israel, but a nuclear bomb would be more effective, as Israel will never accept this form of national suicide.

[PFunk]

3. I did read the article and I don't agree with it. So I stand with what I posted.

The only thing that's holding back a secular one state solution is the right wing etremists on both sides.

[oberliner]

4. Are you opposed to a two-state solution?

How would you feel about an Israeli state and a Palestinian state living side by side at peace with one another?

Is that something you would support?

[eyl]

7. Why don't you agree with it

Whatever your personal feelings on the prederred solution, why do you disagree with the author's premise that most of the people involved do not want that solution?

I can't speak for the Palestinians, but on the Israeli side it's not just the "right-wing extremists" - the majority of Israelis do not with to live in a binational state.

[shaayecanaan]

25. There are a few reasons...

Living standards in Israel are ranked somewhere between those in Cyprus and Slovenia. There are a few reasons for this, but ultimately it is because of low productivity in the ultra-orthodox and Arab populations and the security burden.

Israel could encourage greater productivity amongst the Arabs by allowing them to relocate to areas closer to sources of employment, but Israel has generally hesitated to do so because of concerns about white flight and Arabs taking over Jewish areas, etc.

Low living standards dont bother the Arabs very much, as they never had it very good in the first place. But 43% of American Jews earn more than $100 000 USD. Going from that to something like Slovenia is just not very inviting.

"but on the Israeli side it's not just the "right-wing extremists" - the majority of Israelis do not with to live in a binational state."

There is an Arab proverb that translates something like "whether you win or you lose is not something you choose".

The point being made by Qurei when he invoked the one-state solution was not that Israel would agree to it, but that the status quo was far more difficult to sustain for the Israelis than it is for the Arabs.

As it is now, the Palestinians are asking for the West Bank and Gaza. If demographic trends continue in the north, in thirty years' time they may be asking for the North District as well. If I were Israel, I would be doing everything I can to make the West Bank an attractive destination for Arabs.

Of course, the other prospect that presents itself is that Israel seeks a muscular solution to the Arab problem, given the increasing ultra-Orthodox population and the waning secular one and the corresponding tendency for political preferences to skew to the hard-right. Certainly, most of the Arab states would secretly be delighted to see Israel purging and killing its Arabs, hopefully in front of the TV cameras. Probably would make the Europeans happy as well, finally they would get an antidote to their holocaust guilt.

If you check the boxes, you have a widely despised minority that most of the population regard as a fifth column, you have a system of proportional representation that tends to give influence to extremists (rather like the Weimar republic, wouldnt you say?)

the ducks do tend to line up in a row...

[Vegasaurus]

26. Most educated Israelis do not believe that they are living like in Slovenia

but in any Western educated society, and the majority are very satisfied with living standards.

It is expensive to live in Tel Aviv, for example, but there is industry aplenty, and a good standard of living.

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Differences between Israelis' and Palestinians' living standards are similar to the differences in living standards between first world and a third world populations. According to World Bank estimates for 2006, per-capita GDP among Israelis was $18,580, similar to that of Western European countries such as Portugal and Greece. Among residents of the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, the comparable figure was $1,230, similar to developing nations such as Sri Lanka and Honduras.

When comparing the likelihood of Israelis and Palestinians to say they are satisfied with their standard of living, 72% of Israelis say they are satisfied with their current standard of living and just 47% of Palestinians say so. What's more, about half of Israelis (52%) say their standard of living is "getting better," compared to about one in four Palestinians (24%). Palestinians are far more likely to say their standard of living is "getting worse."

http://www.gallup.com/poll/103642/Satisfaction-Gap-Divides-Israelis-Palestinians.aspx

[shaayecanaan]

27. Actually, you're right...

I did a quick check and it turns out Slovenia's per capita GDP is $21,000. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Slovenia) So Israel is in fact significantly worse off.

As for "educated Israelis believing they are not living in a place like Slovenia", I presume that those Israelis can read, and therefore make the same straightforward observation that I just made - namely that in fact Israel is economically less prosperous than those other Eastern European countries. Comparisons to Portugal, an erstwhile dictatorship and the basketcase of Western Europe are just disingenous.

The double whammy is that in fact living expenses in Israel are quite high, whereas minimum wages (about $5 USD an hour) are quite low.

[oberliner]

28. The Economy of Israel page puts Israel's median income between Australia and Ireland

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_israel

Per capita GDP is $28,800 (same source).

[shaayecanaan]

32. See my post immediately below

its important to clarify whether youre talking nominal or PPP

[Vegasaurus]

30. Not exactly

Israelis carry pensions from company to company, so they don't have the retirement funding issues of Americans.

There is national health insurance, so all citizens are cared for.

Higher education has a very small cost, not the tens of thousands of dollars of American universities (both public and private).

These are just a few of the differences.

The $28K GDP is not in any way comparable to a similar amount in the US.

[shaayecanaan]

31. Yes, exactly...

there are two ways of comparing per capita GDP figures:- Purchasing power parity (PPP) and nominal.

PPP figures are adjusted to take into account the cost of living, so that basically persons earning the same PPP earnings in different countries would have a similar standard of living (subject to intangibles such as whether the water is clean, the beaches are nice and the women attractive).

On both bases, Israel ranks around or below Slovenia.

See:-

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita

Ive been to Slovenia, briefly. Not as nice as Croatia (which is a stunningly beautiful country) but a fairly nice place. Like Croatia and Israel, a country that is neither rich nor dirt poor, exactly.

The other thing to remember is Israel is fairly inequitable in terms of its distribution of income. It compares quite badly with Western Europe in that regard:-

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_income_equality

As for the rest of your post, Im not sure why you are suddenly invoking comparisons to the US. Most European nations (including Slovenia) have aged pensions, publicly funded universities, and healthcare.

The very basic point of all this, which I think that I have belaboured and you have failed to concede for long enough, is that Israel is not a wealthy country.

[LeftishBrit]

29. Very little chance that Israelis will 'purge and kill' Israeli Arabs.

And I hope that not too many people would be pleased if they did so, even if it *does* give them PR ammunition against Israel.

The status quo is not good for anyone, in any case, and a peaceful solution needs to be reached as soon as possible.

[shaayecanaan]

33. About the same chance as...

the Sinalese purging the Tamils, the Thais purging the Karen people, etc.

A small but significant chance.

[Vegasaurus]

5. It;s like an upside down world that the Palestinians think this new demand

will gain them freedom or a state.

They could and should have their own state.

There is NO political will from the Israeli populace for a shared state.

The longer the Palestinians push for this, the more the Israelis will turn their back.

It just is unreasonable and idiotic.

[azurnoir]

6. lovely article

but what is not mentioned is that the Israeli "offer" requires the Palestinians to engage in what will surely be a bloody civil war before any Palestinian state can even begin. Now I am sure Palestinian on Palestinian violence is something of a "spectator sport" for some in Israel and else where, complete with the usual crocodile tears and well look at what they do to each other how can WE ever trust them with their own state rantings. All in all a win-win for Israel and a lose-lose for the Palestinians who get nothing but bloodshed and a rubber stamping of a permanent IDF presence in what is supposed to be their country.

As to a one state solution why not a secular state, that could be guaranteed in the deal not Jewish, not Muslim. just Israel. if as is claimed most Israeli's are non-religious is this such a problem or why is they have 22 Muslim countries Muslim being a reference to religion not nationality used as an excuse?

[LeftishBrit]

8. Do you not think...

that establishing a binational state would lead under present circumstances to bloody civil war between Palestinian groups, as well as to civil war between Palestinians and Israeli Jews? E.g the division between Palestinian secularists and Islamists would certainly increase, in attempts to determine the nature of the government.

It's interesting that on the one hand you seem to think that a two-state solution of the sort described here would *inevitably* result in civil war among Palestinians, yet you don't seem to regard civil war - both within Palestinians, and between Palestinians and Israelis, as a danger in a single state. Why is this?

[azurnoir]

9. This is an excerpt from Ha'aretz

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's latest peace offering (Israel would annex 7 percent of the West Bank and compensate the Palestinians with territory in the Negev, which would be equivalent to 5.5 percent of West Bank land; an agreement on the future of Jerusalem would be postponed to a later date; there would be no right of return for Palestinian refugees to Israel; and the entire plan would be implemented after Hamas is removed from power in the Gaza Strip).

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1011859.html

Perhaps you interpret differently, but just how would Hamas be "removed" at least anytime soon?
Elections, what if they win again? This clause and its implications for the Palestinians has been largely ignored, and makes the whole so called "offer" almost laughable the Palestinian leadership such as it is, was right to turn it down.

[LeftishBrit]

10. In that case...

how do you expect Hamas and its supporters to accept a *secular* binational state, as keeps being suggested?

I am not necessarily supporting all the current Israeli proposals with regard to the two-state solution. I just regard a one-state solution as *impossible* to implement at this stage; therefore some sort of two-state solution is the only possible one.

[azurnoir]

11. Same way as the utra-religious Jews

by being the minority, it is that simple. Neither group will like it and yes there will be violent acts by both sides, there already are and those acts are directed both ways at each other and at their own. The at there own factor could be the unifying force between both Israelis and Palestinians who simply want to live their lives normaly, the vast majority on both sides IMO.

[Vegasaurus]

12. The majority of Palestinians say they support violent resistance

It is the minority, apparently, who simply want to live their lives normally.

Pity, but the reality is that Hamas, the militants, and all their supporters have no intention of living with any Jews.

They intend to take back Israel by force, and Israelis are just not stupid.

I don't know how much clearer I can be.

[azurnoir]

13. Present the poll please

the one that you have strumpeted repeatedly, the one I know of was taken days after operation "Hot Winter".

[Vegasaurus]

14. My pleasure

ISRAEL/PALESTINE: Most Palestinians favor violence over talks, poll shows

Most Palestinians favor violence over talks, poll shows
By ETHAN BRONNER
International Herald Tribune
RAMALLAH, West Bank: A new poll shows that an overwhelming majority of Palestinians support the attack this month on a Jewish seminary in Jerusalem that killed eight young men, most of them teenagers, an indication of the alarming level of Israeli-Palestinian tension in recent weeks.The survey also shows unprecedented support for the firing of rockets on Israeli towns from the Gaza Strip and for the end of the peace negotiations between Palestinian and Israeli leaders.

The pollster who conducted the survey, Khalil Shikaki, said he was shocked because it showed greater support for violence than any of the surveys he had conducted over the past 15 years in the Palestinian areas. Never before, he said, had a majority favored an end to negotiations or the firing of rockets at Israel.

http://warvictims.wordpress.com/2008/03/18/israelpalestine-most-palestinians-favor-violence-over-talks-poll-shows/

[azurnoir]

15. Yep just like I thought March 18, 2008

the one taken a couple of weeks after operation "Hot Winter", when how mant Palestinian civilians, many of them children were killed? Wonder what a poll on "should Arabs be expelled from East Jerusalem?" would have said around April 22?

[Vegasaurus]

16. No, this poll was taken after the seminary murders

and as the article states,the poll showed greater support for violence than any of the surveys he had conducted over the past 15 years in the Palestinian areas.

[azurnoir]

17. So those were supposed to even the score?

still and none the less taken after the Yeshiva murders or before makes little difference, there is another poll taken well before the Yeshiva murders

"A poll by the group showed most Israelis would not be willing to accept an Arab neighbor, half of the public would not be willing to receive an Arab visitor in their home, and 40 percent believe that the State should encourage Arabs to emigrate from the country."

do you think that number went down?

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3231048,00.htm

should this poll be taken as the "final" word

edited for several spelling errors

[LeftishBrit]

20. The point is...

that you seem to be implying on the one hand that the Israeli and Palestinian hawks are too numerous and influential to permit a two-state solution, yet somehow at the same time not numerous and influential enough to prevent a successful one-state solution. As a peaceful one-state solution would be much MORE difficult to establish than a two-state solution, isn't this a bit contradictory?

[azurnoir]

24. I implied nohing of the sort

in fact a reasonable explanation of the political system in Israel and Jerusalem and how the right wing could take hold was given to me

pelsar Tue Jul-22-08 03:41 AM
Response to Reply #12

13. jerusalem politics....

the mayor is haridi ..his constitutes are mainly the religious element. The whole concept of a multiparty system, designed to give the minority parties are say...is a major failure. It gives way too much power to those minority parties.

stick with the two party system.....its the better one

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=124&topic_id=216363


As to one state vs two stae neither solution will be happening any time soon

[subsuelo]

18. What people don't get - is that we already have arrived at one state

It isn't about offering "solutions" or arguing for or against one-state vs two. That's beside the point completely.

The *reality* is - we're already at a single state. There is one state existing in the region, with two large reservation camps filled with millions of native people. And we have past the point at reaching a two-state agreement.

So whether or not anyone likes it or promotes it or have some interesting opinion on it - it doesn't matter.

We are already at a one state solution. The matter is over. Time to deal with that reality and move forward.

[oberliner]

19. Uri Avnery: "There are those who say: It already exists."

“There are those who say: it already exists. Israel already rules one state from the sea to the river, you only need to change the regime. So, first of all: there is no such thing. There is an occupying state and an occupied territory. It is far easier to dismantle a settlement, to dismantle settlements, to dismantle ALL the settlements – far easier than to force six million Jews to dismantle their state"

http://palestine-mandate.com/2007/11/palestine/is-there-any-realistic-alternative-to-a-two-state-solution

More from Avnery:

“You can talk of a Single State from the Mediterranean to the Jordan River, define it as bi-national or supra-national – whatever the term used, in practice it means dismantling the State of Israel, destruction of all that was built for five generations. This must be said out loud, without any evasions. That is exactly how the Jewish public sees it, and certainly also a large part of the Palestinian public. This means the dismantling of the State of Israel. I am a bit disturbed by the fact that these words are not said explicitly."

[subsuelo]

21. What does Israel expect then

If the "deepest aspiration of the Israeli public" is to have a state with Jewish majority - then what in gods name are they doing undermining a two-state solution every day with continued colonialist expansion beyond 67 borders - it's just utter stupidity. What does anyone expect is going to be done with the millions of pesky natives forced into reservation camps/occupied territories. Force them to keep considering less and less, then cry and complain about the growing number of voices observing that two state ain't gonna happen?

Oh boo-hoo, we just won't accept that. Poor us for forcing the millions of native Palestinians into ghettos and taking their land and now we've taken so much it's become the thing we hate the most - a single state with a couple of large reservation camps.

I stand by my claim - that what people don't get - is that we already have arrived at one state. Pity that Uri Avnery is among those that don't get it. And judging by his comments here, he really doesn't get it. It's just too late for a two state solution. Time has passed us by and now we need to deal with the reality of the situation. There is nothing immoral about these observations.

[LeftishBrit]

22. What do you say to this particular comment by Avnery

"It is far easier to dismantle a settlement, to dismantle settlements, to dismantle ALL the settlements – far easier than to force six million Jews to dismantle their state"

[Vegasaurus]

23. Your opinion doesn't change the reality on the ground

Jewish Israelis are not giving up their state.

Are you suggesting that the world force their hand, by military means?

Other than that, there will be NO SINGLE STATE any time in the immediate future.

There is absolutely no political will for this among Israelis, including right wing, centrists, and left wing thinkers.

No one wants a single state.

So quit your talking about it, because it isn't happening, at least now, while the two people can't even agree on any part of a final two state agreement.

Your opining about them living together is a waste of cyberspace.

[azurnoir]

34. No one is asking

Israeli Jews to give up their state and they already share it with "gasp" Israeli Arabs, as to single state only time will tell and the Palestinians have that and numbers on their side, yes their misery will increase if Israel keeps expanding the settlements, you have pointed that out quite gleefully many times.

[Vegasaurus]

35. Who has glee?

Show me a single post where I expressed glee at Israeli expansion of settlements.

And Jews are not sharing their state willingly, because soon they will all be ousted for yet another Arab state.

Sorry, not going into the ovens willingly this time.

[Vegasaurus]

36. Still waiting for you to show where I showed GLEE

You often draw untrue conclusions, assign beliefs that people don't have, or misstate views.

Here is your chance to correct yourself.