Is a Palestinian Civil War Breaking Out?

[pelsar]

Hamas and Fatah militiamen have clashed repeatedly in the last three weeks, including on three separate occasions in just the last two days. Early Monday morning, three men were killed in Khan Yunis during a shoot-out between the factions that followed a series of tit-for-tat kidnappings.

http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1192602,00.html

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interesting here how the internal palestenain conflict...their present lack of ability to provide security for their own appears to be of no real interest.....more so its affects on the entire region also seem to be irelevant.

its seems to me...and i'm open for other suggestions, but the general feeling is that whatever happens within the palestenain society is secondary to israel either pulling out of the westbank or disappearing (depending upon the poster)....

meaning the palestenian society may fall in on its face and become one more failed society or one based on religious fanaticism (complete with moral squads roaming...as they have in iran and parts of gaza today)....and all of that would be just fine, as long as israel is not in the westbank.

let me make this even simpler: whether or not the palestenain lives are worsened by israel pulling out now, makes no difference to most of the posters here, let their society be torn by civil war, executions, etc...as long as israel is not occupying....

well, hate to ruin a good simplistic scenario, but a failed or religious palestinean state not only means increased internal violence for citizen palestenian, not to mention no civil rights (is that relevant to the posters here?) but increased attacks on israel...and its subsequent reprisal.

of course if gaza is any sort of measurement, israel will be blamed for the attacks and its reprisals, which then can be used as the excuse for the failed society.

the conclusion?
like the surrounding arab states, the palestenains, they're actual day to day living , their actual civil rights etc is nothing anybody cares about....its only when israel is involved or is imagined to be involved, is there anything to write about, get excited about.

[rpannier]

1. Probably...

If it does...Palestine is probably finished.

[kevinmc]

2. I was thinking that the other day ...look's like it .n/t

[sweetheart]

3. war in the desert

among the bodies of the dead,
shadowed by crumbling towers decayed,
lies the prayers, cries of dread,
spirit of life and truth betrayed.

blood on the sweltering desert sand,
eye for an eye, a millenia waylaid,
egos and fire, my father's last stand,
surround the theft with a wall they made.

Nation of God, buried beneath,
bodies of those who's rot invades,
dead body bomb, surrendered belief,
cycle of death repeated in spades.
Marching crusades, a thousand years of war,
newsmedia tirades, thunderous fears deplore.

[Behind the Aegis]

4. Yes!

Civil war is already happening. It is just now becoming more violent. The reason you see little interest in this topic is because many of those who claim to be pro-Palestinian are simply anti-Israeli. Since this cannot be blamed on Israel directly, I am sure there are those who will be able to do it, there is little interest.

You, as an Israeli, have a vested interest in a stable Palestine. However, those, thousands of miles away, really don't care, as long as the Palestinian people are not under Israeli control. True is, Israel could pull up stakes in the WB today, and chaos would erupt in the area, only to be blamed on Israel. This would be no different, this is a salute to those who love the false comparison to apartheid South Africa, if the Afrikaner government had been replaced with someone like Mugabe. People would cheer the end of "white-only" rule, but fail to address the new terror installed. Short-sightedness seems to be the real global problem!

Finally, you say; "like the surrounding arab states, the palestenains, they're actual day to day living , their actual civil rights etc is nothing anybody cares about....its only when israel is involved or is imagined to be involved, is there anything to write about, get excited about." That is 'it' in a nutshell! However, it is not limited to Palestine. When Israel finally gives up more land (although, it will never be enough, unless she just jumps into the sea), this forum will fold and we will rarely hear of any issues of the Palestinian people, despite conditions being worse than under occupation. It is really quite sad.

[pelsar]

5. Occupation by Egypt or Jordan?

"It's clear that Hamas and Fatah both only care about themselves and having power," said Yunis Abu Sultan, a waiter in Gaza City. "Forget an independent state, we'd be better off if Jordan or Egypt ruled us again."

http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=16536

but egypt not only refused to take back gaza when israel gave them back the sinai..they wont even open the gates to let in intl aid of food and medical supplies to the palestenians today...

The jordanians?....hardly want to be the security force in gaza...not with a large palestenian population of their own.....that would be suicidal as their security forces enfoced their own occupation.

[idontwantaname]

6. timor-leste

hey pelsar
i dont doubt youve heard the news about east timor and the civil divide/clashes which are going on right now... and how australian troops among others have been sent in as a peace keeping force, yet its requested by many that east timor be left to figure out its own political problems and dynamics... as a new state they have to find their way... bloody and difficult is apparently an accepted part of this process.
you can bet indonesia would disagree... but i guess we will see what happens.

[pelsar]

7. actually i know little....

i know what i read about in the papers but i dont know enough to really make an informed comment.

my guess...and it is just that...is that a failed timor wont "affect" the whole region. A failed palestine includes not just the internal struggle, which i believe most emerging states go through, but has the addition of attacks and reprisals involving israel, which in turn get the neighboring states and the rest of the world involved.

when was the last time we saw a protest in California for East Timor?

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what am i getting at?.....that the occupation may be bad...but there are worse things, like a failed state in the westbank. Gaza if it continues this way is at least restricted, they can only shoot at the israeli border towns, Egypt keeps the palestenian present civil war restricted as does israel to within its boundries...the west bank however, if it goes the way of gaza means missles on jerusalem, hadera, and other israeli cities (imagine a kassam/katushya in 10 story apt building)...a far worse scenario will then follow.

the trick is to avoid that......

and the internal society of the palestenians?....if its not based on civil rights, the rule of law, as in democracy, where the people feel not just empowered but responsable, then this war will continue.....and that is the heart of the long term problem

[idontwantaname]

8. the last time...

some in the current palestine solidarity movement had previously been active in the east timor movement... when timor got its "liberation" from indonesia they moved over to I/P

definitely the last thing many here want to see is a failed palestine state... however when we see steps like settlement expansion we cant help but wonder how the israeli govt feels about suchs things as a palestine failed state. perhaps the israeli govt sees the relationship similar to the US' relationship with central/sotuh america?

[pelsar]

9. no plan.....

your assuming there some kind of overall guiding plan, that guides the israeli policy in the west bank.....there isn't. Its more like separate ministries pulling and pushing in their own directions....some feed them monies via various agencies, some take advantage of laws and loopholes, some modify the regulations governing their ministries.

its takes a strong central govt to make bold decisions.....either way. Sharon was one of those, Rabin another, but their rare.....I have my doubts about Olmert but am waiting to see. Maybes hes biding his time, maybe hes being patient, maybe he doesn't have the political strength.

His own history is rather interesting: wife is active in meretz, whereas he started in the far right and was the motivator for the gaza pullout....

i'm not much on guessing what motivates an israeli politician other than family pressure....and our political system while having some advantages for various public interest groups, leaves a bit to be desired in terms of responsablitily toward the voters.

[idontwantaname]

13. politics can be a zoo...

thanks for sharing a bit about the dynamics over there.

[Violet_Crumble]

11. I know a whole lot more...

And, yes, a failed East Timor does affect the whole region. Not yr region, but it certainly affects mine...

I can't speak for California, but there was a shit-load of rallies in my country for East Timor....

I'm sure Indonesians would also trot out the 'occupation may be bad...but there are worse things, like a failed East Timorese state.' It's just as false an argument as when Israelis trot it out. There are so many similarities between the situations in East Timor and the Occupied Territories even though the East Timorese are much further along the path than the Palestinians...

Violet...

[idontwantaname]

12. the oil business

there have not been any rallies since east timors independence. the angle here in the states was to focus of the US govts arms support of the indonesian govt... much in the way we are trying to raise the awareness of the US govts fiscal support of the israeli occupation and caterpillar bulldozers sales whose bulldozers are used to destroy homes.

of couse it is now australian troops, not US, who are currently in east timor.

[pelsar]

14. a false agrument?...

and yet i dont believe the east timorese are shooting rockets at austrailian cities....i dont believe the there are those that want the east timorese to have their own "society" next to australians larger cities where they can shoot missles and mortors...

so there are differences....

more so the idea of expanding gazas civil war in to additional areas does seem quite foolish....that kind of thinking can only lead to additional war and chaos as the palestenains fight themselves, cant control their borders and shoot at israel....

great plan: expand the palestenian civil war and "pray" that they dont end up in a 3-way war....but anything is better then the settlers and occupation...anything..even attempts at establishing some stability or waiting for the palestenains to "stabalize" their society....and who really knows if that will happen.

some palestenians have mentioned egyptian or jordanian occupation some israeli....it appears some dont like living in the middle of a civil war...but what do they know, they just live there....

[Violet_Crumble]

15. Australia didn't invade and occupy East Timor...

That was Indonesia, not Australia. It's just that yr first paragraph sounds as if you think it was Australia that occupied East Timor...

Of course there's differences, though. Indonesia never built settlements and never moved its citizens there in order to try to change the demographics of the territory. Unlike Israel, Indonesia wanted both the territory and the people living in it to be part of Indonesia. Oh, and there's a shitload of oil in the Timor Sea that was a bit of a factor in how other countries responded to things....

But in other areas the similarities are striking. Just like Israel, Indonesia had the backing of the US for many years, which allowed it to carry out its occupation with impunity. Just like Israel, Indonesia killed foreign journalists. Just like the Palestinians, East Timorese were slaughtered in the name of 'security'...

Yr claiming some Palestinians have said they'd prefer continued occupation to what's happening now? Got any links? I honestly find that very hard to believe...

[pelsar]

16. sorry about the mix up....

i realized i wrote to fast and had to run out (was late)....
the Israel killed foreign journalists..doesnt strike me as relevant to anything more than a smear. Journalists in war zones have no superman qualities and like others get shot. What is interesting is not only is the journalistic presence in israel higher than almost anywhere else in the world, the actual numbers of them shot is one of the lowest for a war zone....so much for the "smear'.

http://www.rsf.org/article.php3?id_article=16088

or:

http://www.newssafety.com/casualties/2006.htm

Israel doesnt even show up on the graphs for the most dangerous places for journalists


or course the palestenians arent known for "freedom of the press' perhaps your remarks were directed at them?

Violence against the media grows

Threats, vandalism, physical attacks and even killings of journalists have increased alarmingly since September 2003, helped by lawlessness and security confusion throughout 2004, especially in Gaza, and were caused by political score-settling and power-struggles among Al-Fatah factions.
Apart from official condemnations, sometimes by Arafat himself, these attacks on press freedom were not seriously investigated and clear efforts were not made to prevent their repetition

http://www.rsf.org/article.php3?id_article=13311
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now for some more interesting facts:

"It's clear that Hamas and Fatah both only care about themselves and having power," said Yunis Abu Sultan, a waiter in Gaza City. "Forget an independent state, we'd be better off if Jordan or Egypt ruled us again."

http://www.middle-east-online.com/english/?id=16536

"Were someone to conduct a secret poll, it would clearly show that most residents prefer the continuation of Israeli power," says "A," an academic and social activist who lives in Umm Tova.
http://www.acj.org/December.htm#1 (originally from haaretz dec 28, 2002)

or a journalist view point:

“You know they’d kill me for saying this, but I miss the Israelis,” one droll local journalist told me after we watched the men beat another photographer and destroy his gear. “Sure they occupied us, but there were fucking rules, man. ‘Go here and we’ll shoot you. Stand there and you’re cool.’ We could work. We could live. Now we have this shit.”

http://www.guerrillanews.com/headlines/9252/Gaza_melts_down

[Violet_Crumble]

17. The West Bank and Gaza aren't Israel...

Israel doesnt even show up on the graphs for the most dangerous places for journalists

That's coz the danger's in the Occupied Territories, which aren't part of Israel...

As for saying foreign journalists have been killed by Israel being a smear, I must remember in future that such smears are only acceptable when it comes to the Palestinians ;)

As for those 'facts', since when have opinions that clearly agree with yr stance been *facts*? I actually thought when you said 'some Palestinians' in yr earlier post, you were actually talking about something like some poll that had been done...

[pelsar]

18. i'm getting careless....

As for those 'facts', since when have opinions that clearly agree with yr stance been *facts*? I actually thought when you said 'some Palestinians' in yr earlier post, you were actually talking about something like some poll that had been done..

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they're opinons....but no polls...i've read about it hear and there, in the news over here...at the sametime when there are polls taken, personal security always tops the list, and presently in gaza...thats whats missing



Just like Israel, Indonesia killed foreign journalists

the way that is written sounds like were targeting them...except that the websites that warn journalist of dangerous places dont even mention

israel or the westbank or gaza....though some journalists in gaza are now getting a bit nervous since israel has left:



“You know they’d kill me for saying this, but I miss the Israelis,” one droll local journalist told me after we watched the men beat another photographer and destroy his gear. “Sure they occupied us, but there were fucking rules, man. ‘Go here and we’ll shoot you. Stand there and you’re cool.’ We could work. We could live. Now we have this shit.”

http://www.guerrillanews.com/headlines/9252/Gaza_melts_...



Nancy Updike's last interview with Abushahla was conducted by telephone because it was too dangerous for her to visit him in Gaza.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5300350

[barb162]

10. Hard to tell

if the factional fighting indicates a low grade civil war or it just means there is some higher level of factional fighting than usual due to the election.

One thing seems certain at least for some percentage of the population and that is, that violence is entering the picture when vote results are not "liked"
Loyal opposition is not what is taking place.

I don't see how an operational and successful society and government coincides with assassinations, street violence by opposition parties, declared intent to destroy another nation, enormous aid needs, high unemployment, etc