12. Near East
Since 1993, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) have been cooperating with Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) earth science organizations of Turkey, Lebanon, Cyprus, Syria, Jordan, Israel, Palestinian Authority, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Yemen under the program "Reduction of Earthquake Losses in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (RELEMR)". The European -Mediterranean Seismological Center (EMSC) has coordinated the exchange of seismicity data among these countries. Among the RELEMR goals was the compilation of the regional seismic hazard, which was performed under the GSHAP umbrella.
The Eastern Mediterranean Region, because of its geological structure, seismicity, topography, and climate, has been subjected to many earthquake disasters during the past two thousand years, resulting in great losses of life and property. Earthquake ground shaking and tsunamis, the main causes of past disasters, are expected to continue to be the most dangerous threats to the built environment of each EMR country. Seismicity in the EMR is mainly associated with the northward movement of the Arabian plate. The 1,000 km-long western boundary of the Arabian plate is a complex plate boundary, extending from zones of sea-floor spreading in the Red Sea to zones of plate convergence in Turkey, and lies along the line of the Gulf of Aqaba, the Dead Sea rift, and the Ghab depression. The sense of motion along the transform fault system is left lateral, with the east side moving northward relative to the west side. Total displacement is estimated at about 107 km since Oligocene time, with an annual rate of about 0.5 cm over the last 7 to 10 million years. Seven damaging earthquakes have occurred in the EMR in the last decade. The Ms 7.2 earthquake occurred in 1995 in the central Gulf of Aqaba region caused damage in nearby communities in Jordan, Egypt, Israel, and Saudi Arabia and was felt for more than 700 km; the aftershock sequence lasted for more than 1 year with numerous shocks exceeding Ms 5.0. For the first time, countries in the region worked together to process seismic data using various software packages and a unified data set. The magnitude of the main shock and the robust aftershock sequence demonstrate the threat that earthquakes continue to pose to the EMR.
The probabilistic ground shaking map for the EMR was assembled at ETH Zurich by D. Mayer-Rosa and S. Sellami, on the basis of maps contributions from G. Papakyriacou (Cyprus), S. Riad, E. Ibrahim and M. Sobaih (Egypt), A. Shapira (Israel), A. Amrat (Jordan), M. Al Haddad (Saudi Arabia; Al Haddad et al., 1994), C. Tabet (Lebabon), and M. El Khoubbi (Syria; El Khoubbi, 1997); the RELEMR coordination was ensured by W. Hays of USGS. The resulting regional map is not a calculated map, but rather a smoothed composite map based on the existing ground shaking hazard maps of individual EMR countries. The main difficulty was that the available sources are very different in term of mapping parameters, probability levels and exposure times. The result integrates all the information into a unified map expressing Peak Ground Acceleration expected at 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years (Figure 2). With modifications in both the level and spatial distribution of the peak ground acceleration values, especially at country boundaries, the map was presented at the 1998 ESC General Assembly in Tel Aviv and approved by RELEMR. A new RELEMR Task Group "Hazard Maps and Applications" has now been established to prepare future EMR probabilistic ground shaking hazard maps on a scale of 1:250,000, on the basis of available data on the EMR source, attenuation path, and local site geology parameters.
In plain English:The big earthquake is coming to the region - right up the Gulf of Aqaba and the Jordan Valley - up to Syria - Lebanon - Turkey
Us "Red Cross-Red Crescent - Red Crystal Volunteers out here on the San Andreas Fault ..... take this very seriously"