2004 National Research Council Study: Data on Firearms and Violence Too Weak to Settle Policy Debate

[jpak]

http://www8.nationalacademies.org/onpinews/newsitem.aspx?RecordID=10881

Next time someone posts a claim the More Guns = Less Crime, steer him/her to this...

WASHINGTON -- The role of guns in U.S. society is a subject of intense policy debate and disagreement. However, current research and data on firearms and violent crime are too weak to support strong conclusions about the effects of various measures to prevent and control gun violence, says a new report from the National Academies' National Research Council. A comprehensive research program on firearms is needed if criminal-justice and crime-prevention policy is to have a sound basis.

-- There is no credible evidence that "right-to-carry" laws, which allow qualified adults to carry concealed handguns, either decrease or increase violent crime. To date, 34 states have enacted these laws.

-- There is almost no evidence that violence-prevention programs intended to steer children away from guns have had any effects on their behavior, knowledge, or attitudes regarding firearms. More than 80 such programs exist.

-- Research has found associations between gun availability and suicide with guns, but it does not show whether such associations reveal genuine patterns of cause and effect.

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[Zoeisright]

1. The only evidence and proof I need is the stats on gun deaths in other countries.

That is, countries with strict gun control laws. They make the United States look like a festering bloodbath.

[GreenStormCloud]

3. So somebody isn't as dead if they are killed by knives in that country? N/T

[jpak]

5. Yup

http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/research/hicrc/firearms-research/guns-and-death/index.html

1. Guns and homicide (literature review).

We performed a review of the academic literature on the effects of gun availability on homicide rates. Major findings: A broad array of evidence indicates that gun availability is a risk factor for homicide, both in the United States and across high-income countries. Case-control studies, ecological time-series and cross-sectional studies indicate that in homes, cities, states and regions in the US, where there are more guns, both men and women are at higher risk for homicide, particularly firearm homicide.Publication: Hepburn, Lisa; Hemenway, David. "Firearm Availability and Homicide: A Review of the Literature." Aggression and Violent Behavior: A Review Journal. 2004; 9:417-40.

2. Guns availability and homicide rates across nations. We analyzed the relationship between homicide and gun availability using data from 26 developed countries from the early 1990s. Major findings: Across developed countries, where guns are more available, there are more homicides. These results often hold even when the United States is excluded. Publication: Hemenway, David; Miller, Matthew. "Firearm Availability and Homicide Rates across 26 High Income Countries." Journal of Trauma. 2000; 49:985-88.

3. Gun availability and state homicide rates, 1988-1997 Using a validated proxy for firearm ownership, we analyzed the relationship between firearm availability and homicide across 50 states over a ten year period.
Major findings: After controlling for poverty and urbanization, for every age group, people in states with many guns have elevated rates of homicide, particularly firearm homicide. Publication: Miller, Matthew; Azrael, Deborah; Hemenway, David. "Household Firearm Ownership Levels and Homicide Rates across U.S. Regions and States, 1988-1997." American Journal of Public Health. 2002: 92:1988-1993.

4. Gun availability and state homicide rates, 2001-2003 Using survey data on rates of household gun ownership, we examined the association between gun availability and homicide across states, 2001-2003. Major findings: States with higher levels of household gun ownership had higher rates of firearm homicide and overall homicide. This relationship held for both genders and all age groups, after accounting for rates of aggravated assault, robbery, unemployment, urbanization, alcohol consumption, and resource deprivation (e.g., poverty). There was no association between gun prevalence and non-firearm homicide. Publication: Miller, Matthew; Azrael, Deborah; Hemenway, David. "State-level Homicide Victimization Rates in the U.S. in Relation to Survey Measures of Household Firearm Ownership, 2001-2003." Social Science and Medicine. 2007; 64:656-64.

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[jpak]

7. and more - U.S. Leads Richest Nations In Gun Deaths

http://www.guncite.com/cnngunde.html

ATLANTA -- The United States has by far the highest rate of gun deaths -- murders, suicides and accidents -- among the world's 36 richest nations, a government study found.

The U.S. rate for gun deaths in 1994 was 14.24 per 100,000 people. Japan had the lowest rate, at .05 per 100,000.

<snip>

The CDC would not speculate why the death rates varied, but other researchers said easy access to guns and society's acceptance of violence are part of the problem in the United States.

``If you have a country saturated with guns -- available to people when they are intoxicated, angry or depressed -- it's not unusual guns will be used more often,'' said Rebecca Peters, a Johns Hopkins University fellow specializing in gun violence. ``This has to be treated as a public health emergency.''

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[jpak]

8. and this one - high statistical correlation between guns and gun deaths

http://www.gun-control-network.org/GF01.htm

[gejohnston]

26. From Canada up

are mostly suicides. Almost all of Switzerland's are suicides. Try homicide rate.

[eqfan592]

42. Which would actually mean something...

...if it was only gun deaths that mattered. Last time I checked, somebody stabbed to death was just as dead as somebody shot to death.

[friendly_iconoclast]

6. "That is, countries with strict gun control laws." Like Mexico, Jamaica, and Russia?

Please, do explain those to us. I'd like to hear how their "strict gun control laws" are working...

[Spoonman]

11. Please feel free to educate yourself before embarrassing yourself

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_politics_in_Brazil

- all firearms are required to be registered with the state; the minimum age for ownership is 25 and although it is legal to carry a gun outside a residence, extremely severe restrictions were made by the federal government since 2002 making it virtually impossible to obtain a carry permit.

http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/cis/cis_1072.html

Brazil’s murder rate is more than four times higher than that of the U.S. Rates for other crimes are similarly high. The majority of crimes are not solved.

Strict gun control laws, and high crime......festering bloodbath:crazy:

[gejohnston]

12. You mean these countries?

Our fist deaths are higher than the countries you are thinking of. The real question is murder rate.

US murder rate is about 5 per 100K. Japan is about 1.1 Of course, places like DC are worse and Vermont is safer than Japan. Other than UK, DC has stricter laws than most of Europe.

Countries with strict gun laws:

South Africa-34
Jamaica-60
Belize-33
Mexico-15
North Korea-19
Costa Rica-11
All have strict gun control laws.

Other countries with high gun ownership, laws vary:
Canada-1.8
Switzerland (only country that allows open carry of machine guns)- 0.71
Norway-0.6
France-1.3
Finland-2.5

[X_Digger]

14. So, did they have a low muder rate before gun control, or no?

I mean, if what you said is true, there should be a demonstrable result post-implementation, right?

In this case, no, Zoeiswrong.

[spin]

18. Mexico has tough gun control laws and plenty of people ...

in Mexico die because of firearm violence.

[jpak]

20. Mexican drug gangs (that do most of the killing) get guns from US gun shops and gun shows

yup

[gejohnston]

24. That is bullshit and you know it

BATFE never made such claim, Wikileaks and real news sources has most of their guns from the southern border.

Re-enforces my more bongs=more gun deaths

[spin]

25. Right and they also buy all their hand grenades, rocket launchers

and anti-aircraft guns from local gun stores.

'Powerful and lethal'

As they have gained strength, traffickers have been taking on the weaponry to maintain it. Cartel weapons are "increasingly more powerful and lethal," the U.S. Government Accountability Office said in a June report.

Five rocket launchers, 271 grenades, 2,932 assault rifles, a submarine loaded with cocaine, and an anti-aircraft gun were all seized by Mexican authorities between March 2008 and August 2009.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2010-02-10-mexico-cartels_N.htm

U.S. Embassy Cables: 90 Percent of Mexican Drug Cartels' Most Lethal Weapons Come From Central America--Not USA
Friday, April 01, 2011
By Edwin Mora

(CNSNews.com) -- The most lethal weapons used by drug cartels in Mexico are smuggled from Central America, not from the United States, according to U.S. Embassy cables unveiled by WikiLeaks, reported La Jornada, a leading newspaper in Mexico City.

***snip***

The cables from the U.S. Embassy in Mexico City to the State Department in Washington, D.C., reported that lethal weapons, including anti-tank firearms and grenades, were stolen from military forces in Central America and then smuggled into Mexico through the Guatemala border, reported La Jornada on Mar. 29.

***snip***

Drug cartels are increasingly demanding military-style arms such as grenades and light anti-tank weapons, in addition to guns that penetrate bullet-proof vests known as “cop killers” in Mexico, according to one cable.

Among the high-powered artillery that Mexican authorities were able to confiscate from drug cartels, 90 percent came from arsenals of armies in Central America, stated the the U.S. Embassy.
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/us-embassy-cables-90-percent-most-lethal

[Name removed]

37. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[GreenStormCloud]

2. Old study. Made before the 2009, 2010 crime drops. You fail. N/T

[jpak]

9. You have no peer-reviewed published scientific evidence to support that ridiculous statement

and Obama's election had everything to do with the rise in gun sales after 2008

all them paranoid gun and ammo hoarders, and teabaggers done that

yup

[gejohnston]

16. FBI UCR says violent crime dropped.

Also, your bullshit non peer reviewed Joyce Foundation funded schlock with the Harvard name on it has been discussed and debunked before.

[jpak]

17. But did they say it was due to guns sales? Nope - and US gun ownership has declined

Gun hoarders not influence the crime rate

yup

[gejohnston]

21. Gun ownership declined?

Where? So why are NICS background checks up?
Maybe the real reason is that drug sales are down, lowering profit margin of gangsters and drug dealers. You realize the typical bong owner contributes more to "gun deaths" than almost all gun owners combined?

[jpak]

22. Gun hoarders, straw buyers for drug gangs, etc.

yup

[spin]

36. I'm sure that some people are indeed hoarding guns as an investment ...

and drug gangs may be increasing their arsenal but I doubt if those two factors explain the increase in firearm sales.

If the number of gun owners was actually dropping in a significant manner, the gun owners that I know would be buying up all the used weapons. Used firearms are often a great buy because most people don't go shooting all that often. If such firearms receive reasonable maintenance they are just like a new firearm.

I keep finding news stories like this:

Gun permits surge in state
Worries on crime, stricter laws cited

By Peter Schworm and Matt Carroll
Globe Staff / December 20, 2009

The number of gun permits issued in Massachusetts surged by more than 15 percent over the past two years, reversing nearly a decade of steady declines and marking a pronounced departure for a state known for its antigun sentiment.

The magnitude of the rise, evident in nearly every corner of the state, surprised law enforcement officials, and gun advocates and opponents alike.

Some saw it as an echo of similar spikes across the country after President Obama’s election, when heavy gun sales were attributed to fears that he would impose strict new gun laws. But with more women and elderly residents signing up for gun classes in Massachusetts, many said the increase here has also been driven by worries about crime and a growing sense of vulnerability in the wake of the financial collapse and lingering fallout of the damaged economy.

“I think it’s a sign of the times,’’ said Mike Burchman, who teaches gun courses in Hop kinton, where the number of permits rose 25 percent. “There’s a general insecurity, and people are looking for personal protection. In the past two years, I’ve seen a real shift.’’
http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2009/12/20/gun_permits_surge_in_state/

More Texas women becoming first-time gun owners
Updated: 3/07/2010 2:40 pm

MIDLAND, Texas -- There has been an increase in the number of women in west Texas signing up for firearm classes.

Whether it's to face their fear of guns, or just have peace of mind in knowing they can protect themselves, more women are picking up handguns and learning the basic skills needed for protection.
http://www.woai.com/news/local/story/More-Texas-women-becoming-first-time-gun-owners/jJZ8mXpbSkiQTJNQozWfBg.cspx

People who own a large collection of firearms (hoarders) and criminal drug gang members are not usually taking gun safety courses.

[S_B_Jackson]

49. The weekend before last, we added 4 women to the "this is my first gun purchase" club

several of us had been discussing our weekend plans & I'd stated an intention of hitting the what is one of the larger shows here in Houston - the Houston Gun Collectors Association gun show - with my wife. One of the ladies chipped in that she'd like to go with us as she'd been considering buying a gun for some time...

Of couse, I didn't have a problem, and told that we'd probably catch breakfast at a local place about 9am and then would go to the show - my wife would be glad for the company. So lady #1 was happy, and a day or so later got to talking with a couple of other ladies during lunch.....and a couple more wanted to go as well, and one was going to bring her daughter.

We ended up making a day of it....all the ladies came prepared to buy - and they did. Mom and daughter ended up getting We ended up getting a couple of M&Ps mom in .40, her girl in 9mm. One of the ladies picked up a good, used S&W 642 revolver. The lady that had initially joined us fell in love with a Russian Makarov. I tried to talk her out of it because they're not gentle to shoot, but this was her decision.....afterwards we went to the range, and she found out that she really didn't like the Makarov, but she did like my CZ-83...so I see a straight swap coming in the near future.

All of the ladies will be taking a basic gun safety course next weekend - this sounds like it's going to become a weekend get together thing for them...and two of the ladies will be getting CHLs when they feel that they're proficient with their pistols - if I were laying money on it, I'd bet that all 4 will end up getting a carry permit within a year.

Great way to spend a morning/afternoon. :thumbsup:

[gejohnston]

27. since you just said gun owners don't influence crime

what is your problem with gun ownership?

[jpak]

28. I don't have a problem with gun ownership - I have a problem with 30 round mags

shall issue CCW without a permit, open carry everywhere, guns in schools, churches, public buildings, legislatures & bars, and fucked up GOP/NRA castle laws

yup

[gejohnston]

31. Why?

How do you feel about cop bars?
How about high school shooting teams/rifle clubs?
what makes churches special? Why should it be up to gov and not the church's management?
You support duty to flee, how would forcing someone to flee their home (if they have a back door) civilized? It sounds feudal to me.
Do you understand castle laws?
The ability of the individual to armed self defense is one of the pillars of the enlightenment according to John Locke and Thomas Paine, please explain how your views are liberal.
Since all of the carry laws being repealed were passed by conservatives trying to suppress the labor and civil rights movements (which is why Vermont never passed any gun laws), why should liberals support them today?

[gejohnston]

32. I have no problem with bong owners

If they grow their own and do not line the pockets of organized crime. If the gov would give up on the WOD, make it legal then I would have no problem with them at all.

[spin]

39. So you have no problems with a Glock 17 which has a 17 round standard magazine? ...

interesting.

Questions:

1) How do you have shall issue CCW and not have a permit?

2) Are you opposed to licensed CCW? It would appear that you are not as you listed as one of your problems, "shall issue CCW without a permit"?

Comments:

I personally have no interest in carrying openly and I can see how this method of carry hurts the cause of gun owners in states where people are not familiar with it. This is probably an issue that would best be decided on a state by state basis. Open carry may be accepted in more rural states but could be a problem in states such as Pennsylvania, California or Florida.

I can see advantages and disadvantages to allowing licensed concealed carry in schools. I would have no problem with the concept of issuing a permit with a higher standard to allow a person to carry a concealed firearm in a school or campus environment. In Florida, armed security guards are required to pass a more involved class than a concealed weapons permit holder and face a far more difficult qualification course on the shooting range.

Why would a church be a place where a licensed person is prohibited from carrying a firearm. While church shootings have happened, how many school shootings were caused by concealed permit holders in a church? Interestedly enough, a church shooting was stopped by a VOLUNTARY security guard with a concealed weapons permit at the New Life Church in Colorado Springs, Colorado. source: http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/14817480/detail.html

While alcohol and guns are a bad mix, I can see no problems with a person who is not drinking having a licensed concealed weapon in a bar. Such a person may be a designated driver and his presence may insure that the inebriated people he will drive home are not a danger to other drivers.

I do believe that there are places where firearms are not appropriate such as public meetings or court rooms. In the area I live, there have been armed police in the building who offer a measure of security. Our town meetings are not a gun free zone as the local police chief is always present and is armed.

Castle doctrine laws if properly written enable a honest person to use a firearm in legitimate self defense without fear of prosecution by a district attorney who hopes to gain political favor or from lawsuits by the members of the criminals' families. For a person such as myself who is legally handicapped because of a bad back and hip they enable me to "stand my ground". Running away or retreating is difficult if not impossible.

I notice you used the term "mag" to describe what most people who have little knowledge of firearms call a "clip". Was this a mistake or are you far more knowledgeable about firearms than you lead people to believe?

[jpak]

46. Actually - I would like to see them limited to 6 rounds

yup

[eqfan592]

47. Wow..

...how very arbitrary of you.

[GreenStormCloud]

48. Are you aware that a magazine change take only a second?

The VT killer, Luby's killer, and the Ft. Hood killer all reloaded several times. The VT killer reloaded 17 times. None of them used an extended magazine.

[eqfan592]

43. So you mean you have a problem with a lot of things...

....that have not been linked in any way to an increase in the crime rate? Ok then...

[Spoonman]

30. Speaking of peer-reviewed published scientific evidence

and Obama's election had everything to do with the rise in gun sales after 2008

all them paranoid gun and ammo hoarders, and teabaggers done that

I'll simply re-state your own words - "You have no peer-reviewed published scientific evidence to support that ridiculous statement":spank:

Democrats NEVER buy guns...........:rofl:

[gejohnston]

4. did it look at just gun violence or violence regardless of weapon?

Either way, you won't see this in any Brady press release.

[jpak]

10. It is an NRC release - the research arm of the National Academy of Sciences

not Brady

fail

yup

[gejohnston]

13. read closer

I said You will not see it in a Brady release meaning that it shoots their claims in the ass.

[spin]

15. How do you answer my claim that more guns does not equal more crime?

I agree that there are too many factors in the violent crime rate formula to simply state that the fact that there are more firearms in civilian hands has caused a drop in the crime rate.

However recent firearms sales in our nation have been at an all time high.


source: http://www.ammoland.com/2011/02/21/usa-the-most-heavily-armed-country-earth/

And the violent crime rate has been falling.


source: http://bjs.ojp.usdoj.gov/content/glance/cv2.cfm

If an increase in the number of firearms would by itself cause an increase in violent crime the data would show it.

[jpak]

19. Nonsense - gun ownership has declined - gun hoarding has increased

http://www-news.uchicago.edu/releases/07/070410.norc.guns.shtml

<snip>

Among the other findings in the study are:

Gun ownership in the United States has declined in the past 30 years. It has gone from a high of about 55 percent in the mid-1970s to 35 percent in the most recent GSS survey.

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Gun Ownership in U.S. Declining

http://www.allgov.com/Top_Stories/ViewNews/Gun_Ownership_in_US_Declining_110429

Fewer Americans own guns these days, according to a new report that shows a three-decade decline in the percentage of personal and household ownership of pistols and rifles. Using data collected by the federal government, the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago, which has been tracking such figures since 1972, determined the percentage of American households that reported having any guns dropped more than 40% from 1977 to 2010. Also, the percentage of Americans who reported personally owning a gun dropped more than 32% from 1985 to 2010.

In 2010, only 32.3% of U.S. households owned guns and only 20.8% of individuals claimed personal gun ownership. The number for women was 9.9%.

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[gejohnston]

23. assuming they were honest in the latest polls.

This is kind of an anti shot in the foot. If only 20.8 of Americans own guns, then your more guns=more crime meme is about to crash. Since then, Canada might be slightly lower but the level of noncompliance with registration laws are high enough that this number is too low.

United States 39 %
Norway 32
Canada 29.1
Switzerland 27.2
Finland 23.2
France 22.6
New Zealand 22.3
Australia 19.4
Belgium 16.6
Italy 16
Sweden 15.1
Spain 13.1
Germany 8.9
N. Ireland 8.4
Scotland 4.7
England/Wales 4.7
Netherlands 1.9

[spin]

29. My daughter worked as a census taker last summer ...

and couldn't get a large number of people to tell her how many people lived in their homes, even when she explained how the data collected would be used to benefit our county.

People DO NOT trust the government today and a high percentage will deny that they own firearms to any stranger who is conducting a survey. I know a good number of gun owners who prefer to keep the fact that they own firearms secret from strangers possibly with good reason.

[ileus]

34. Most everyone's gunz I know were lost duck hunting a while back.

[spin]

41. Exactly. (n/t)

[eqfan592]

45. You hit the nail on the head.

Lots of unfortunate duck hunting accidents these days....

[lawodevolution]

33. Trends around the world indicate more guns = less murder

[S_B_Jackson]

35. Still making the strawman arguement, aren't you?

Next time someone posts a claim the More Guns = Less Crime, steer him/her to this...

The claim is not that More Guns = Less Crime, the claim is that More Guns =/= More Crime.

There's nothing new in this study, it's well known by almost everyone it seems, except you.

[jpak]

38. There is no data indicating more guns = less crime

yup

[spin]

40. If you notice most of us do not claim that more guns = less crime ...

we say that more guns does not equal more crime.

There is one hell of a difference in the two statements.

However, it is possible that that fact that more people have firearms and concealed carry has indeed caused the violent crime rate to fall.

Imagine that you are a criminal and you have no fear breaking into occupied homes. One day you find yourself confronting an armed homeowner. You run. Later that night while you are smoking a joint or knocking off a twelve pack of Bud, you thing about the encounter. You may well decide to avoid breaking into homes which just might have some terrified person with a handgun, or God forbid, a 12 gauge shotgun. You decide it's much safer to just break into homes when no one is there.

Or imagine you make money by mugging people. One night you walk up to some old fart on the street or in a parking lot who is obviously out of shape and an easy target and you pull your knife or gun and say, "Give it up, M. F. or I'll f..king kill you." You think he is reaching for his wallet but instead he pulls a .357 magnum. You decide to run. Later you decide to stop screwing around with people on the street because normally you only get a wallet with a few bucks and a debit card. you decide it's far easier to rob a convenience store where the clerks aren't armed because of company policy and are trained to just hand the cash over.

I can't find any statistics to prove this, so I will just present this as a logical possibility. Of course, only the experienced criminals will reach such decisions and the younger criminals will have to learn the lesson the hard way.

I have no idea if you have ever had a firearm pointed at you. I have on several occasions and I will tell you that it's an experience you never forget, nor do you want it to happen again.

[S_B_Jackson]

44. That's a beautiful strawman, you've built jpak....

problem is that YOU are the only one making that argument.