Mexico's Gun Supply and the 90 Percent Myth

[bossy22]

For several years now, STRATFOR has been closely watching developments in Mexico that relate to what we consider the three wars being waged there. Those three wars are the war between the various drug cartels, the war between the government and the cartels and the war being waged against citizens and businesses by criminals.

In addition to watching tactical developments of the cartel wars on the ground and studying the dynamics of the conflict among the various warring factions, we have also been paying close attention to the ways that both the Mexican and U.S. governments have reacted to these developments. Perhaps one of the most interesting aspects to watch has been the way in which the Mexican government has tried to deflect responsibility for the cartel wars away from itself and onto the United States. According to the Mexican government, the cartel wars are not a result of corruption in Mexico or of economic and societal dynamics that leave many Mexicans marginalized and desperate to find a way to make a living. Instead, the cartel wars are due to the insatiable American appetite for narcotics and the endless stream of guns that flows from the United States into Mexico and that results in Mexican violence.

Interestingly, the part of this argument pertaining to guns has been adopted by many politicians and government officials in the United States in recent years. It has now become quite common to hear U.S. officials confidently assert that 90 percent of the weapons used by the Mexican drug cartels come from the United States. However, a close examination of the dynamics of the cartel wars in Mexico — and of how the oft-echoed 90 percent number was reached — clearly demonstrates that the number is more political rhetoric than empirical fact.



Read more: Mexico's Gun Supply and the 90 Percent Myth | STRATFOR
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110209-mexicos-gun-supply-and-90-percent-myth

[Hoopla Phil]

1. K and R n/t

[X_Digger]

2. Have you heard the latest meme?

WaPo is at it again..

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/28/AR2010122803737.html

Military and law enforcement officers there have seized some 60,000 weapons that were used in these crimes and traced to the United States.

That link leads to another WaPo story.. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/12/AR2010121202663.html

Federal authorities say more than 60,000 U.S. guns of all types have been recovered in Mexico in the past four years, helping fuel the violence that has contributed to 30,000 deaths. Mexican President Felipe Calderon came to Washington in May and urged Congress and President Obama to stop the flow of guns south.

Now, if you find the statement from Calderon made before congress, it's a bit different..

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2010/05/mexican_president_challenges_c.html

Just to give you an idea, we have seized 75,000 guns and assault weapons in Mexico in the last three years. And more than 80 percent of those we have been able to trace came from the United States — from the United States.

Notice that Calderon did not say that 80% of the guns seized came from the US- he said 80% of the guns seized that were able to be traced.

Now where did WaPo get that magic 60,000 number? Well, 80% of 75,000 is.. *drumroll* 60,000!!

When you look for an actual count, you find this GAO report-

http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d09781t.pdf

Adding up the numbers from 2007 and 2008, you get a total of- 9,760. If you add in 2009's 4,449 - http://www.mayorsagainstillegalguns.org/downloads/pdf/issue_brief_mexico_2010.pdf -- you get 14,209. -- not 60,000.

A more accurate figure, based on verifiable facts, would be 19% of those guns seized- not 90%-- 14,200 not 60,000.

[one-eyed fat man]

3. Figures don't lie, but liars figure. N/T

[Pullo]

5. 19% would be more accurate but ......

..... still to high to back up claims the antis. They imply these weapons are coming from the US civilian market. I'm guessing a sizable portion of those 14,000 guns were supplied to the Mexican government directly by Uncle Sam.

Mexican army deserters take their hardware with them when change employers.

[spin]

6. Good work. You have just debunked the propaganda ...

that our government has been trying to feed us.

Obviously, many in power believe in the mushroom theory of governing. Keep the citizens in the dark and feed them bullshit.

[Hoopla Phil]

4. Project gun walker Docs RELEASED and a letter from Grasslely. This is about to blow up.

Rosetta Stone: David Codrea Posts Grassley Letter to Eric Holder with Project Gunwalker DOCUMENTS."The best way to honor his memory is to come clean."

http://sipseystreetirregulars.blogspot.com/2011/02/rosetta-stone-david-codrea-posts.html

Just follow the link. Copies of the letter and the documents are there.

[AtheistCrusader]

7. Nice, and from a solid source too.

Thanks for the link. Highly useful.