CCW Permit Holders Much Safer Than General Public.

[GreenStormCloud]

http://www.txchia.org/sturdevant2000.htm



This a comparison chart showing the arrest rates for five years for VIOLENT CRIME, comparing the Texas general mal and female general population with the Concealed Handgun Licensed population.

Blue is the male general population arrest rate.
Dark red is the male CHL arrest rate.

Yellow is the female general population arrest rate.
Light blue is the female CHL arrest rate.

There is no reason to believe that the populations of other states are any different.

[X_Digger]

1. The numbers post 2000 are similar..

http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/administration/crime_records/chl/convrates.htm

Florida also publishes similar stats, but I don't have a handy source for overall FL crime numbers to do the same kind of rate comparison- http://licgweb.doacs.state.fl.us/stats/cw_monthly.html

[virginia mountainman]

2. I have a sneaking suspicion..

That the POLICE, are far more likely to commit crimes, than CCW holders....

Police and other "Sworn staff" crime rates..

Some of you fine folks that are good at finding statistics, could probably find those numbers and post them here..

That would be the finial nail in the coffin for the VPC on this issue..

[divideandconquer]

3. Catapaulting the propaganda from the Texas Concealed Handgun Association!

:rofl: Who did the study? Was it John Loot or Mary Rosh?

<http://www.whoismaryrosh.com/>

[Euromutt]

5. The arrest data are from the TX Dept. of Public Safety

Can you point to an actual flaw in the analysis, or is an ad hominem the only response you can muster?

See, when I, or another pro-RKBA poster, dismisses a "study" from the VPC or a "fact sheet" from the Brady Campaign, that's because we have already demonstrated on this forum, over and over, that both organizations are prone to distorting the truth in their material, by omitting certain facts, fabricating others, drawing invalid conclusions from the presented data, etc. If you can provide evidence of the TCHA routinely fabricating their evidence, then you might be justified in dismissing their stuff out of hand, but otherwise...

Note, by the way, that propaganda is information disseminated for the purpose of influencing opinion. It does not necessarily mean the information is false.

[PavePusher]

7. Still flogging that deceased equine?

By now, surely, you are merely beating the dust....

[proteus_lives]

19. He has to keep his hands moving. Because he's got nothing.

[oneshooter]

8. If you have a problem with the data from the Texas DPS

Then feel free to contact them and explain to them the problem with the information they supply. I am sure that they will take note of any discrepancies you found and reexamine the information and make changes.

Oneshooter
Armed and Livin in Texas


https://www.texasonline.state.tx.us/txapp/txdps/chl/

http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/

[GreenStormCloud]

9. Look. I caught a fish. LOL.

TCHA only made the chart. They didn't compile the raw data. The State of Texas Department of Public Safety compiled and published the raw data. Here is the link for 2007 statistics. http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/administration/crime_records/chl/ConvictionRatesReport2007.pdf

The first number is the total convictions for the entire state. The second number, usually 0, is the CHL holders convicted of the offense. The final percentage, usually 0, is the percentage of CHL holders that were convicted.

To make it easy for you, I have put in bold all categories of offenses in which a CHL holder was convicted.

As of 2009 there were 402,914 active CHL holders in Texas. Population of the state is about 25 million.

That yellow gooey stuff running down your face is egg. Possibly a recalled egg.

ABANDON ENDANGER CHILD CRIMINAL NEGLIGENCE 615 0 0.0000%
ABANDON ENDANGER CHILD IMMINENT DANGER BODI 81 0 0.0000%
ABANDON ENDANGER CHILD W/INTENT TO RETURN 156 0 0.0000%
ABANDON ENDANGER CHILD W/O INTENT TO RETURN 7 0 0.0000%
AGG ASSAULT AGAINST PUBLIC SERVANT 65 0 0.0000%
AGG ASSAULT AGAINST SECURITY OFFICER 1 0 0.0000%
AGG ASSAULT BY PUBLIC SERVANT 7 0 0.0000%
AGG ASSAULT CAUSES SERIOUS BODILY INJ 684 0 0.0000%
AGG ASSAULT DATE/FAMILY/HOUSE W/WEAPON 43 0 0.0000%
AGG ASSAULT IN RETALIATION 3 0 0.0000%
AGG ASSAULT W/DEADLY WEAPON 2,513 7 0.2786%
AGG KIDNAPPING 137 0 0.0000%
AGG KIDNAPPING BI/SEXUAL ABUSE 4 0 0.0000%
AGG KIDNAPPING BI/SEXUAL ABUSE SAFE RELEASE 0 0 0.0000%
AGG KIDNAPPING FACILITATE 1 0 0.0000%
AGG KIDNAPPING FACILITATE SAFE RELEASE 0 0 0.0000%
AGG KIDNAPPING FOR RANSOM/REWARD 0 0 0.0000%
AGG KIDNAPPING FOR RANSOM/REWARD SAFE RELEA 1 0 0.0000%
AGG KIDNAPPING INTERFERE PERFORMANCE 0 0 0.0000%
AGG KIDNAPPING INTERFERE PERFORMANCE SAFE R 0 0 0.0000%
AGG KIDNAPPING RELEASE VICTIM SAFEPLACE 5 0 0.0000%
AGG KIDNAPPING TERRORIZE 2 0 0.0000%
AGG KIDNAPPING TERRORIZE SAFE RELEASE 5 0 0.0000%
AGG KIDNAPPING USE AS SHIELD/HOSTAGE 0 0 0.0000%
AGG KIDNAPPING USE AS SHIELD/HOSTAGE SAFE REL 0 0 0.0000%
AGG ROBBERY 1,663 1 0.0601%
AGG SEXUAL ASSAULT 204 0 0.0000%
AGG SEXUAL ASSAULT CHILD 1,334 16 1.1994%
AGG SEXUAL ASSAULT OF ELDERLY/DISABLED PERSO 13 0 0.0000%
AIDING SUICIDE/SBI 2 0 0.0000%
ASSAULT AGAINST ELDERLY OR DISABLED INDIVIDUA 37 1 2.7027%
ASSAULT AGAINST GOVERNMENT CONTRACTOR/EMP 0 0 0.0000%
ASSAULT AGAINST SPORTS PARTICIPANT 5 0 0.0000%
ASSAULT CAUSES BI CONVICTED ANOTHER STATE 0 0 0.0000%
ASSAULT CAUSES BI RETALIATION W/GOVERN 2 0 0.0000%
ASSAULT CAUSES BODILY INJ 7,620 16 0.2100%
ASSAULT CAUSES BODILY INJ DATE/FAMILY/HOUSE 962 1 0.1040%
ASSAULT CAUSES BODILY INJURY FAMILY VIOLENCE 18,507 24 0.1297%
ASSAULT ON SECURITY OFFICER 5 0 0.0000%
ASSAULT PUBLIC SERVANT 521 1 0.1919%
BURGLARY HABITATION INTEND OTHER FELONY 236 0 0.0000%
BURGLARY HABITATION INTEND SEX OFFENSE 12 0 0.0000%
BURGLARY OF BUILDING 4,255 1 0.0235%
BURGLARY OF HABITATION 4,186 0 0.0000%
CAPITAL MURDER ANOTHER PERSON IN PRISON 0 0 0.0000%
CAPITAL MURDER BY TERROR THREAT/OTHER FELON 21 0 0.0000%
CAPITAL MURDER FOR RETALIATION JUDGE/JUSTICE 0 0 0.0000%
CAPITAL MURDER OF A PEACE OFFICER OR FIREMAN 58 0 0.0000%
CAPITAL MURDER OF MULTIPLE PERSONS 9 1 11.1111%
CAPITAL MURDER PERSON UNDER SIX YEARS OF AGE 1 0 0.0000%
CAPITAL MURDER PERSON WHILE ESCAPING/ATTEMP 2 1 50.0000%
CAPITAL MURDER WHILE REMUNERATION 0 0 0.0000%
COERCE SOLICIT INDUCE GANG MEMBERSHIP 9 0 0.0000%
COERCE SOLICIT INDUCE GANG MEMBERSHIP BI 0 0 0.0000%
CRIMINAL NEGLIGENT HOMICIDE 47 2 4.2553%
DEADLY CONDUCT 1,432 15 1.0475%
DEADLY CONDUCT DISCHARGE FIREARM 203 0 0.0000%
DEADLY WEAPON IN PENAL INSTITUTION 32 0 0.0000%
DISPLAY HANDGUN LICENSE REFUSAL 2ND 0 0 0.0000%
HARASSMENT BY PERSON IN CORRECTIONAL/DETENT 105 0 0.0000%
HARRASSMENT OF PUBLIC SERVANT 110 0 0.0000%
HOAX BOMB WEAPONS FREE ZONE 0 0 0.0000%
HOAX BOMBS 3 0 0.0000%
IMPROPER PHOTO/VISUAL RECORDING AROUSE/GRA 16 2 12.5000%
IMPROPER PHOTO/VISUAL RECORDING W/OUT CONSE 2 0 0.0000%
IMPROPER RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EDUCATOR/STU 14 0 0.0000%
INDECENCY W/A CHILD EXPOSES 246 3 1.2195%
INDECENCY W/CHILD SEXUAL CONTACT 1,161 4 0.3445%
INDECENT EXPOSURE 571 3 0.5254%
INJURY CHILD/ELDERLY/DISABLE RECKLESS SBI/MENT 43 0 0.0000%
INJURY CHILD/ELDERLY/DISABLE W/INT BODILY INJ 484 2 0.4132%
INJURY CHILD/ELDERLY/DISABLE W/INT SBI/MENTAL 58 0 0.0000%
INJURY CHILD/ELDERLY/DISABLED CRIMINAL NEGLIGE 31 0 0.0000%
INJURY CHILD/ELDERLY/DISABLED RECKLESS BODILY 88 0 0.0000%
KIDNAPPING 72 0 0.0000%
MANSLAUGHTER 73 1 1.3699%
MURDER 371 2 0.5391%
MURDER UNDER INFLUENCE OF SUDDEN PASSION 4 0 0.0000%
OWNER/OPER/EMP GROUP/NURSE W/INT DISABLE/EX 0 0 0.0000%
OWNER/OPERATOR/EMP GROUP/NURSE W/INT VIOL 0 0 0.0000%
OWNER/OPR/EMP GRP/NURSE NEGL.PC 22.04(a)(1) 0 0 0.0000%
OWNER/OPR/EMP GRP/NURSE NEGL.PC22.04(g) 0 0 0.0000%
OWNER/OPR/EMP GRP/NURSE RECKLESS PC 22.04(e) 0 0 0.0000%
OWNER/OPR/EMP GRP/NURSE RECKLESS PC 22.04(f) 2 0 0.0000%
PLACE WEAPONS PROHIBITED 75 0 0.0000%
PROH WEAPON 159 0 0.0000%
PROH WEAPON SWITCHBLADE/KNUCKLE WEAPONS F 3 0 0.0000%
PROH WEAPON SWITCHBLADE/KNUCKLES 939 4 0.4260%
PROH WEAPON/WEAPONS FREE ZONE 1 0 0.0000%
PUBLIC LEWDNESS 277 0 0.0000%
ROBBERY 1,791 0 0.0000%
SEXUAL ASSAULT 321 0 0.0000%
SEXUAL ASSAULT CHILD 661 6 0.9077%
SEXUAL ASSLT BIGAMY 0 0 0.0000%
SEXUAL ASSLT PROH/PURPORT SPOUSE 3 0 0.0000%
SEXUAL ASSLT PROH/PURPORT SPOUSE UNDER 14YO 3 0 0.0000%
TAMPER W/CONSUMER PRODUCT 0 0 0.0000%
TAMPER W/CONSUMER PRODUCT SBI 0 0 0.0000%
TAMPER W/CONSUMER PRODUCT THREAT 0 0 0.0000%
TERRORISTIC THREAT 1,594 6 0.3764%
TERRORISTIC THREAT AGAINST PUBLIC SERVANT 38 0 0.0000%
TERRORISTIC THREAT CAUSES PECUNIARY LOSS OF 9 0 0.0000%
TERRORISTIC THREAT IMPAIR PUBLIC/GOV SERVICE 16 0 0.0000%
TERRORISTIC THREAT INTERRUPT PUBLIC PLACE 163 0 0.0000%
TERRORISTIC THREAT OF FAMILY/HOUSEHOLD 464 2 0.4310%
TRAFFICKING A PERSON CAUSING DEATH 0 0 0.0000%
TRAFFICKING OF PERSON 8 0 0.0000%
TRAFFICKING OF PERSON YOUNGER THAN 14 YOA 0 0 0.0000%
UNL CARRY HANDGUN LIC HOLDER 15 9 60.0000%
UNL CARRY HANDGUN LIC HOLDER ALCH PREM/CORR 4 0 0.0000%
UNL CARRY WEAPON/WEAPONS FREE ZONE 9 0 0.0000%
UNL CARRYING WEAPON 3,738 29 0.7758%
UNL CARRYING WEAPON ON ALCOHOL PREMISES 46 0 0.0000%
UNL POSS FIREARM BY FELON 1,356 0 0.0000%
UNL POSS FIREARM BY FELON WEAPONS FREE ZONE 5 0 0.0000%
UNL POSS FIREARM INVOLVING FAMILY/HOUSEHOLD 15 0 0.0000%
UNL POSS METAL OR BODY ARMOR BY FELON 11 0 0.0000%
UNL RESTRAINT 270 0 0.0000%
UNL RESTRAINT EXPOSE TO SBI 42 0 0.0000%
UNL RESTRAINT LESS THAN 17 YRS OF AGE 27 0 0.0000%
UNL RESTRAINT OF PUBLIC SERVANT 0 0 0.0000%
UNL TRANSF CERTAIN WEAPONS U/18 WEAPONS FRE 0 0 0.0000%
UNL TRANSF CERTAIN WEAPONS/WEAPONS FREE ZO 0 0 0.0000%
UNL TRANSF HANDGUN UNDER 18YOA 0 0 0.0000%
UNL TRANSF OF CERTAIN WEAPONS 34 0 0.0000%
UNL TRANSP OF PERSON FOR PECUNIARY BENEFIT 1 0 0.0000

[friendly_iconoclast]

37. I get 182 felony convictions from 402,914 people = 0.00045% of CHL holders

or 1 per 2214 (rounded up)

[SteveM]

11. H-h-h-heh-heh-heh, He said cat. Cat in crypt. Crapped, crept out again.

[cleanhippie]

15. Typical hit and run inflammatory BS.

[Callisto32]

23. You don't like me, so if I compile data it stops being good?

What a screwed up view of reality.

[Pullo]

4. Crap, I just unrec'd this by mistake

My apologies to the OP x(

[PavePusher]

6. No worries, I just helped restore the balance. 8>) n/t

[GreenStormCloud]

10. That's OK. N/T

[eallen]

12. There's at least one flaw in the analysis

A Texas CHL is not available to felons or to those charged with certain misdemeanors. Which makes it somewhat fallacious to compare CHL holders in arrest or crime statistics to the general population. The interesting question isn't whether a CHL holder is any more or less likely to commit a crime than the general population, which includes those most likely to commit crimes and thereby disqualified from holding a CHL, but whether a CHL holder is any more or less likely to commit a crime than someone else with similar background. I.e., exclude the disqualified from both groups.

Also, I wouldn't be surprised if Texas CHL holders differ from those in other states. Unlike some states, Texas requires both class time and demonstration of gun handling skills in order to acquire a CHL. Including minimum accuracy. Which means those who acquire a CHL are somewhat more motivated and practiced than in states where the requirements are less. And that may differentiate them statistically.

:hippie:

[X_Digger]

13. Can you tell when walking down the street who is or is not a CHL holder?

Can you tell by looking who is or is not prohibited by law from carrying or even touching a gun?

No? Then it's a perfectly valid comparison. You can't choose not to be around CHL holders if you're out in public.

[GreenStormCloud]

14. That would be a very expensive study.

A comparison of conviction rates is a cheap study as the stats are already there and only need be run off the state's hard drives.

Most states have requirements similar to Texas, although some states are looser.

I would love to see a two year study. Find 1,000 CCW holders, 1,000 gun owners who could get a CCW but don't, 1,000 non-gun owners who otherwise qualify to own a gun, and 1,000 random citizens and track them for a couple of years.

[Taitertots]

17. That is obvious and not a flaw

It is an obvious reason why legal concealed carry permit holders are nothing to be concerned about. It is a major example of why legal concealed carry works, and this data demonstrates it.

[Callisto32]

24. I don't see how this is a problem, since felons are part of the general population?

That is like saying you can't get data about felons in general without ruling out all of the population that aren't eligible to be felons. There would be no way to make that comparison.

We are comparing ONE group, against ALL OTHERS in the population.

You're statement about them being more motivated and practiced is shaky at best. It is like relying on the crap-can, extremely basic requirements many police departments put on qualifications and saying they are "trained marksmen." Every LTCF (PA CHL) carrier I know (this is many) would likely be able to shoot circles around many, many police officers.

[RSillsbee]

32. I have to agree

If you start with a pool of people that are able to pass a criminal back ground check in the first place then how can you not have a lower over all crime rate?

I’d like to see the data set for legal gun owners versus legal non gun owners.

Then I think we can make a better judgment.

Having said that, however, if you can pass the criminal background check and you’ve been to the class why not let you carry a gun?

[slackmaster]

33. Interesting comment, eallen

:hi:

[Glassunion]

34. I do not see the flaw...

We are looking at a specific group "CHL" holders and that is the point of the report and graph.

Yes, criminals cannot qualify for a CHL and are therefore exempt from the CHL group. You see the point of the report and the reason that Texas gathers such information is that when Texas(and several other states) were considering allowing for Concealed Carry, there were those who stated that there would be blood in the streets and that crime would go up. This is why Texas gathers this information to see if there would be a trend among CHL holders being more prone to commiting crime now that they were armed.

So before CHL went into effect you had one group of people. The General Population.
After CHL went into effect you have 2 groups of people. The General Population and CHL holders.

The main point of the study was to see if blood was indeed running in the streets and crime was increasing which is being caused by the CHL holders. It is not as you can see from the reports. Also you can see that crime overall is declining.

If you look at the study from the web page, you should read the conclusions section...
- Arrest data for Texas CHL holders indicate that violent crime is not a consequence of handgun ownership or possession.
- Arrest data for Texas CHL holders indicate that murder and non-negligent manslaughter is not a consequence of handgun ownership or possession.
- Arrest data for Texas CHL holders indicate that negligent manslaughter is not a consequence of handgun ownership or possession.
- Arrest data for Texas CHL holders indicate that forcible rape is not a consequence of handgun ownership or possession.
- Arrest data for Texas CHL holders indicate that robbery is not a consequence of handgun ownership or possession.
- Arrest data for Texas CHL holders indicate that aggravated assault is not a consequence of handgun ownership or possession.
- Arrest data for Texas CHL holders indicate that other assault is not a consequence of handgun ownership or possession.
- The arrest data for Texas CHL holders indicates a much higher crime rate than that indicated by conviction data.
---- As of April 30, 1999, for those CHL holders who were arrested for violent crime, 22% have been convicted for the crime for which they were arrested, 33% have been convicted of a lesser crime, and 36% have been adjudicated as not-guilty.
- Less than two percent (1.9%) of the arrests of CHL holders for violent crimes that possibly involve weapons (murder, manslaughter, rape, robbery, aggravated assault) were classified as “family violence” crimes.
- Arrest data for Texas CHL holders indicate that non-violent crime is not a consequence of handgun ownership or possession.
- Data are not available that would enable a determination of the positive effect on public safety that the Texas Concealed Handgun Law may have.

8.1.1 Methods should be created to measure the Texas Concealed Handgun Law’s positive effect on public safety.
8.1.2 Data on the use of a handgun by a CHL holder, whether the weapon was fired or not, should be collected.
8.1.3 For each incident noted above, the police officer and CHL holder should (separately) evaluate whether the possession of a handgun by the CHL holder prevented, caused, or had no effect on the commission of a crime.

[Canuckistanian]

16. Yes, but are they safer than the Clockwise Permit Holders?

:evilgrin:

[backwoodsbob]

18. debate worthy

but we need the clockwise violent crime numbers

:hide:

[FunkyLeprechaun]

20. Hmm...

Data that's over 10 years old. And almost certainly before things went to shit in the US.

Hope they do an update data report soon because I think it's laughable that you're praising a 10 year old data. Oh, and they didn't even revise it to include the years 2001-2009, makes me wonder if the data had significantly changed to discredit the original hypothesis of the study.

[oneshooter]

21. See my post #8. n/t

[Callisto32]

25. Recent data is often not available.

I have fairly extensive experience in using such data, and we often had to work with numbers 5-10 years old.

Also, note that the overall rate of violent crime has been in DECLINE, despite things "going to shit." Why would we expect to see an uptick in CHL holder violence rates, except for blind prejudice?

[onehandle]

26. Mainly, it's not a study. It's a thin band of information.

Fleshed out in a high school 'I gotta fill this page' sort of way.

[GreenStormCloud]

28. Has anybody claimed that it is a study?

It is some important information, presented as a graph.

Obviously, you don't like that it proves that CHL holders are safer than the general populace.

[cleanhippie]

31. Is calling something "high school" your insult du jour now?

This is the second time today I have seen you use that reference.


But we should not expect a reasonable, rational response from you anyway......

[GreenStormCloud]

27. See my post #9. It is the 2007 state convictions report.

2007 is the most recent state report.

[X_Digger]

29. Didn't read the replies, did you?

http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/administration/crime_records/chl/convrates.htm

"The Criminal History conviction data is not considered "final" until a year after the conviction. Each report is generated for the current year minus 2 years (ie. the 2006 Conviciton Rates Report was run in mid 2008 to allow for "final" conviction status on the 2006 Criminal History records)."

We should have the 2008 report any day now.

[Callisto32]

22. Interesting.

The overall arrest rate looks to be going down, but the CHL rate is a little higher/stable. Is this because there are many more CHL's than in 1996, I wonder?

[friendly_iconoclast]

30. Note: none of the naysayers have ANY hard evidence that this is wrong

Of course, they may come up with some. I'll be rereading the complete Oxford English Dictionary while they're looking....

[Glassunion]

35. Another couple of notes on the report...

If you read the report in depth...

The arrest data for Texas CHL holders indicates a much higher crime rate than that indicated by conviction data.
"For those CHL holders who were arrested for violent crime, 22% have been convicted for the crime for which they were arrested, 33% have been convicted of a lesser crime, and 36% have been adjudicated as not-guilty."

Also...

I has been brought up that it is an unfair comparison as people with prior convictions that would make them exemt from holding a CHL are lumped into the General Population group(thus raising their probability for commiting a crime).

Let's look at the General Population rates for each year. We will subtract 56% off of the top of the general population. This is an incredibly inflated rate as the DOJ reports that 56% (between 1990 and 2002) of violent felons had a prior conviction(could be anything not just what would exempt you from a CHL), 38% had a prior felony conviction(would exempt you) and 15% percent had been previously convicted for a violent felony(not sure of the difference).

We will look at all of the males subtracting out the 56% from just the GP that would have exempted them from the report.

1996 GP Rate: 720 CHL Rate: 106
1997 GP Rate: 698 CHL Rate: 175
1998 GP Rate: 656 CHL Rate: 157
1999 GP Rate: 622 CHL Rate: 154

http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/newsroom/pressreleases/2006/BJS08062006.htm
http://www.txchia.org/sturdevant.pdf

[X_Digger]

36. Here's an updated chart up to 2007, slightly different..

I compared the conviction rate rather than arrest rate of CHL holders (per 100k permit holders) to the conviction rate of the general public (per 100k population > 21 yoa).



Population data: http://www.dshs.state.tx.us/CHS/popdat/detailX.shtm
Conviction data: http://www.txdps.state.tx.us/administration/crime_records/chl/convrates.htm

[friendly_iconoclast]

38. Well done. And the chances of the prohibitionists successfuly refuting it are...

...about the same as me starting at wide reciever for the Patriots this Sunday.

[GreenStormCloud]

39. Thanks. I have copied that chart. Good work. N/T