Violent Criminals Cause Violent Crime

[Indy Lurker]

This data is from 2003, and shows that in 2003 76,459 Felons who were in prison for violent crimes were released.

The median time spent in prison was 2.6 years, with 6.9 years for homicide, and 9.4 years for murder. Based on re-arrest rates for released prisoners, as shown in the graph, an estimated 44,346 have been re-arrested by some time in 2006, including an estimated 9,443 who had previously killed someone.

Using an average prison time of 2.6 years and an average time before arrest of 1.5 years (half the 3ys). and only 58% of each successive group being arrested, I estimate these 76,459 felons will be arrested for 178,000 more crimes in the next 15 years.


If there is truly an interest in reducing criminal violence, it seems like we should stop letting violent criminal out of prison every 2.6 years.



Data below is from tp://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/dtdata.htm#time


..................................................Releases....Median Yrs......Est to be re-arrested within 3 years
Violent offenses...................................76,459........2.6........44,346


Homicide.............................................6,396........6.9.........3,710
Murder/nonnegligent manslaughter...........3,779........9.2.........2,192
Murder................................................2,907........9.4.........1,686
Nonnegligent manslaughter........................872........8.0...........506
Negligent manslaughter..........................2,326........3.8.........1,349
Kidnapping...........................................1,744........2.8.........1,012
Rape...................................................4,652........5.7.........2,698
Other sexual assault.............................10,757........2.9........6,239
Robbery..............................................22,385.......3.3........12,984
Assault...............................................26,746.......1.7........15,513
Other violent.........................................4,070........1.4.........2,361

[SlipperySlope]

1. Why did you post this in Guns?

There is nothing in your post about guns or gun-related public policy.

[SteveM]

2. Thanks for the post. More guns DO NOT equal more crime...

"There appear to be no strong causal connections between private gun ownership and the crime rate... It is commonly hypothesized that much criminal violence, especially homicide, occurs simply because the means of lethal violence (firearms) are readily at hand, and thus, that much homicide would not occur were firearms generally less available. There is no persuasive evidence that supports this view." -- Wright, J.D., Rossi P.H., Weapons, Crime and Violence in America: Executive Summary (198l; Washington, D.C., USGPO).

This should be good reading for those who chant the mantra that the volume of guns in society somehow causes "gun violence" to increase. Oddly enough, it appears releasing violent felons back into society seems to be the real culprit.

[iverglas]

3. people cause slips and falls

Nothing to do with the banana peels they drop on the floor.

They do it by sheer force of will.

Just the way people persuade retailers to hand over the contents of their tills. They stare at 'em, really really hard.