Intelligence Failures Come in Many Shapes and Sizes

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Intelligence Failures Come in Many Shapes and Sizes

The commission appointed to look at U.S. intelligence failures relating to the Iraq war should look at the decisionmaking at the highest level of government, and might contrast President Bush's approach with that of another wartime president, Dwight David Eisenhower.
President Bush has appointed a commission to look into the apparent intelligence failures in the run up to the war against Iraq. Intelligence failures can come in many shapes and sizes. Witness Pearl Harbor, predictions about the state of the Soviet economy, or, indeed, September 11. But the greatest intelligence failures in history are made by political leaders, and do not originate with the intelligence analysts and spies who provide information to decision-makers. Two wartime presidents—Dwight David Eisenhower and George W. Bush—confronted confusing and contradictory signals about a potential threat facing the nation, and each was forced to choose from multiple sources. History shows that the retired Army general chose wisely. When the history of the war against Iraq is written, it may reveal that the former lieutenant in the Texas Air National Guard did not.

Keeping the country secure from threats is, by the president’s own admission, his “most solemn responsibility.” Identifying and protecting against threats requires an understanding of an enemy’s capability and intent to do harm.

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Intelligence Failures Come in Many Shapes and Sizes