With a Post Script re: Simmons, Lovins and China
Everyone reading the Peak Oil Review knows the general story about China and energy. China has the world’s fastest growth rate in energy consumption. Its domestic oil production growth is slowing, its oil imports are rocketing, coal consumption continues a worrisome climb, etc. This writer recently had the opportunity to spend two weeks in China. What follows are some man-on-the-street observations that help put a little flesh on the data bones.
The Demand Side
Normal Beijing traffic (14 +/- million people, according to most folks there) is probably worse than anywhere I’ve seen in the states, including D.C. Freeway traffic is often so slow that bus operators prefer surface streets, even during mid-day traffic.
Drivers on city streets tend to go slower than in the US, partly due to narrower lanes and to more sharing of space with other modes: electric bikes, regular bikes, three-wheeled delivery vehicles (powered and pedaled), most in an adjacent marked lane.
The electric bike? It tools around at around 10-15 mph. I think it could be the fastest way to get around during rush hour. No wonder Lee Iococca foresaw it as a great application in China.
We observed few minor scrapes and fender-benders there, but no totaled vehicles, in part due to the slower speeds. Men out-numbered women drivers 9-to-1 (on-the-fly survey).
One guide said it was much faster to take a taxi (40 minutes) than to try the over-crowded subway system (double that time). That didn’t make intuitive sense…
Buses were heavily used, often jammed. A favorite phrase: “take the #11 bus”—walk on your two legs.
On freeways and elsewhere in the largest cities, it appears that painted lanes are suggested guidelines rather than rules; New Yorkers would feel right at home. In Shanghai, a red light seemed to mean slow down. Local guide: “We don’t obey traffic lights here unless we have to.”
EDIT (Mods: These are bullets, so I've gone a bit longer than I would otherwise).
http://www.energybulletin.net/30254.html