Iraq may hold twice as much oil (100 billion barrels)

[Dogmudgeon]

from the Financial Times (of London), the source for a posting on The Oil Drum (Another 100 billion barrels of oil found in Iraq?).

Iraq may hold twice as much oil

Iraq could hold almost twice as much oil in its reserves as had been thought, according to the most comprehensive independent study of its resources since the US-led invasion in 2003.

The potential presence of a further 100bn barrels in the western desert highlights the opportunity for Iraq to be one of the world’s biggest oil suppliers, and its attractions for international oil companies – if the conflict in the country can be resolved.

If confirmed, it would raise Iraq from the world’s third largest source of oil reserves with 116bn barrels to second place, behind Saudi Arabia and overtaking Iran.

The study from IHS, a consultancy, also estimates that Iraq’s production could be increased from its current rate of less than 2m barrels a day to 4m b/d within five years, if international investment begins to flow.

That would put Iraq in the top five oil-producing countries in the world, at current rates.

(more at link)

Keep in mind that since 1999, petroleum reserve estimates for Iraq have varied between 30 and 300 billion barrels.

--p!

[GliderGuider]

1. It sounds all "Oh, Wow!" till you read on a bit

Then it sounds all, "Uh, Riiight..."

I actually went to the website of IHS and found the underlying press release. It's transparently an attempt to sell their maps to oil producers seeking new oil fields ... While I have no doubt that IHS has been able to put its hands on data on known oil fields, I just don't see how their number for additional resources is anything other than a marketing coup based on wild-assed guesses, as they themselves admit.

[Dogmudgeon]

2. All to maintain the illusion

I am beginning to think that there is some powerful denial at work in the oil industry.

In a rational world, we'd be saying, "well, the cheap oil is gone, time for the transition plan to kick in." But it seems as if the oil interests themselves are even forgoing crisis profiteering to maintain the illusion of normalcy.

They may have good reasons too. First and foremost, if the Saud family were to lose their grip on Arabia, they could well end up slaughtered en masse. But the shared threat is the possibility of inducing a global economic panic and crash. What good are obscene profits if the financial world is stricken for decades?

As I wrote, I've seen that 30-to-300 billion barrel Iraqi oil reserve estimate spread cited in the past eight years, as the situation "warranted". Not only are we approaching, or at, Peak Oil, but we can't even get accurate data.

--p!

[Strelnikov_]

3. This brings back memories of those heady days six years ago

when they still thought the Caspian region held 200+ B bbl of reserves.

Then, reality stepped in:

However, in December 2001, just after US troops took over the capital of Afghanistan, British Petroleum (BP) announced disappointing Caspian drilling results. According to Dale Allen Pfeiffer, an oil industry analyst and former researcher for Michael Ruppert’s www.fromthewilderness.com website, after three exploratory wells were analyzed, it was reported that the Caspian region contains much less oil than originally reported, although there are vast amounts of natural gas. Also, it was discovered that Caspian oil is of poor quality, with up to 20 percent sulfur content, which makes it expensive to refine and creates huge volumes of environmentally damaging waste products.

In 2002 the consulting group PetroStrategies published a study estimating that the Caspian Basin contained only 8 to 39.4 bb of oil. Shortly after this report was discussed in the petroleum news sources, BP and other Western oil companies began reducing their investment plans in the region.