The Next Big Thing. (alternative fuel and its hype)

[4dsc]

A really good read here..

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2450#more

The Hype: TDP Will Save the World

In May of 2003, Discover Magazine published Anything Into Oil. It was a look at a technology called thermal depolymerization (TDP), which could take any organic material and turn it into oil. This was a high profile write-up with a lot of hype, and the technology of Brian Appel and his company Changing World Technologies (CWT) was really going to change the world.

(snip)

This is the same mistake that proponents of tar sands, GTL, oil shale, cellulosic ethanol, and many others have run into. They believe that oil prices will rise, and yet their costs will magically remain where they were. In fact, what happens is that as oil prices rise, all the costs associated with these various projects rise. That’s why oil shale has been imminent for 100 years. That’s why ExxonMobil is scrapping GTL plans. And that’s why tar sands costs have skyrocketed. A poster has referred to this trend as The Law of Receding Horizons.

[skids]

1. I guess he forgot to read the ENTIRE wikipedia article.

And there was more bad news:

Turkey-oil plant closed due to foul odors

SPRINGFIELD, Mo. - A foul-smelling plant that turns turkey byproducts into fuel oil was ordered closed by the governor Wednesday until the company finds a way to clear the air.

Renewable Environmental Solutions Inc. in the southwest Missouri community of Carthage had agreed in May to improve its odor-control systems after state and city officials sued, alleging the smell posed a public nuisance.

The company also was cited six times by state environmental officials this year, Gov. Matt Blunt said, but the smell continued.

Well, at least there were "no smokestacks bellowing chemical-laden smoke."

...but from the very same wikipedia article he quoted above...

Smell complaints

The pilot plant in Carthage was temporarily shut down due to smell complaints. It was soon restarted when it was discovered that few of the odors were generated by the plant<5>. Furthermore, the plant agreed to install an enhanced thermal oxidizer and to upgrade its air scrubber system under a court order<6>. Since the plant is located only four blocks from the tourist-attracting town center, this has strained relations with the mayor and citizens of Carthage.

According to a company spokeswoman, the plant has received complaints even on days when it is not operating. She also contended that the odors may not have been produced by their facility, which is located near several other agricultural processing plants<7>.

In December 29, 2005, the plant was ordered by the state governor to shut down once again over allegations of foul odors as reported by MSNBC<8>.

As of March 7, 2006, the plant has begun limited test runs to validate it has resolved the odor issue.<9>.

As of August 24, 2006, the last lawsuit connected with the odor issue has been dismissed and the problem is acknowledged as fixed.<10> In late November, however, another complaint was filed over bad smells.<11> This complaint was closed on January 11th of 2007 with no fines assessed.<12>

...methinks someone is riling up the NIMBYers.

While his point about the "The Law of Receding Horizons" should be well taken, but at the same time, it appears some meta-skepticism is in order here. TDP does have the potential to utilize feedstocks which are not as competively priced as turkey waste turned out to be, and never will be. That was definitely an error on the companies part, placing their plant as they did right next to what they thought was a low value feedstock but actually turned out to have other buyers. They tried to speculate on legislative reaction to bovine encephalitis -- they gambled and they lost on that one. Had they built the plant in Europe where the laws did what they expected them to do, the story would have been entirely different, not to excuse them from taking a huge risk with their investors' money.

They probably would not have made their target price just the same, that was indeed a bit overhyped, but they made a decent showing and seem to still be in the game.

[suziedemocrat]

3. The plant is open again. The town is still complaing about the odor.

And the TDP plant is convinced the odor is not coming from their plant. (The TDP plant is in the center of town from what I've read.) Btw, the local turkey plant that was supplying offal to the TDP process was sold by Con-Agra. Who knows if those new owners changed something to create the odor.

[skids]

4. Always wondered...

...why wood stoves didn't come with an external air intake similar to the description there of the preheat tubing, running inside the exhaust vent.

[pscot]

2. I read that article in Discover at the time.

It seemed a little over the top, but I thought, "What the hell. This is a science mag. They must vet this stuff pretty carefully." Quel surprise. Rapier does a nice job explaining how and why Thermal Depolymerization flopped. It's a cautionary tale. Bottom line, where energy production is concerned, there are a lot of moving parts. All the costs are not immediately apparent and enthusiasm can easily cloud judgement.

[wtmusic]

5. "Even Newt Gingrich acknowledges that we built

the richest nation on earth in large part because we had cheap and plentiful oil. Clearly, we should be skeptical of any scheme that purports to change that basic equation."

:rofl: Good point there