Bakhtiari calls the Peak and predicts 55 mbpd by 2020.

[GliderGuider]

This topic really belongs on the Peak Oil board, but E/E gets more traffic, and I think the Peak Oilers will all see it here.

This is yet another stake in the ground by a heavy hitter. Samsam Bakhtiari was a senior expert with the National Iranian Oil Company. He is now a consultant who has been publicizing the concept of Peak Oil for a number of years. He has just declared "The End of the Modeling Phase" for Peak Oil. In other words, it has happened, and there is no point trying to model it any more. Furthermore, two very different models he trusts have both pointed towards a production of 55 million barrels per day in 2020, down from 84 mbpd today. That is about 10 mbpd lower than I was expecting by then, and I consider myself to be a "fast crash doomer".

The similarity of the results obtained by two very different models --- the WOCAP and the GBM --- should help bring 'Peak Oil' modeling to a close, as according to these models the peak of global oil production has now been reached. Furthermore, the two models' similar forecast for a global oil supply of 55 mb/d by 2020 can now be considered as being the most accurate and reliable forecast for the future production of the international oil industry.

[hogwyld]

1. Civilisation had a good run

while it lasted. I forsee the end of man with his resource wars ad infinitum.

[Strelnikov_]

2. And this figure represents a 3.2% depletion rate

from today. Optimistic? possibly.

And how long will will it take the nations automobile fleet to turn over? Oh, that's right, 14 years+/- (Hirsh 2005).


And they report hybrid sales are down.

[Delphinus]

3. Approximately

how much (oil) would we be saving if we weren't over in Iraq and Afghanhistan?

[GliderGuider]

4. Oil use in Iraq

According to this source the US military is burning 350,000 barrels of fuel per day in Iraq. Afghanistan probably adds another 50,000. Add to that the decline in Iraqi production of 800,000+ barrels per day due to the occupation and the resulting civil war.

Over 1.2 million barrels per day are being kept from the global market due to this war. That's 1.5% of the world's total consumption.

[Delphinus]

7. Thanks, Glider.

Just one more reason all the supporters of the boy king should be wanting to pull out ... more fuel for their vehicles.

[4dsc]

5. 55 by 2020??

I wonder when TSHTF because we are seeing more and more reports like this yet nothing is moving the herd yet..

[GliderGuider]

6. Look for the stampede to start in September.

That's my prediction for when the issue will finally hit the front pages. The triggers will be US gas prices, a realization that US imports are dropping because of Cantarell's decline, a sideways admission by KSA that their decline isn't voluntary after all and some kind of fuel crisis in Britain.

The other triggers could be an attack on Iran and Katrina II in the Gulf. By September I think we'll see LOTS of movement.

[happyslug]

8. Buy Gasoline today at $2.60 per gallon, sell in September For $5 a gallon

You will not have a better return on investment.