58 year supply in ANWR?

[toddzilla]

Some guy told me that we have an estimated 58 year supply of oil in ANWR, and we only disturb like .1 % of the reserve to get at it.

i know it's false, but i don't know much about it other than this sounds like wishful thinking.

any links or help you guys can give me is appreciated.

[TheFarseer]

1. maybe they could pump on it for 58 years

but it certainly will not supply the US with ALL of our oil for that long. I don't think the entire world can supply us with 58 years.

[mhr]

2. 6 to 12 Billion Barrels Per USGS, Daily US Consumption 20 Million Barrels

12 Billion barrels divided by 20 million barrels per day equals:

600 days = 1.6433 years!

6 Billion barrels divided by 20 million barrels per day equals:

300 days = 0.83 years!

So there is realistically somewhere between 1/2 to 2 years worth of US consumption in the ANWR range.

[Salviati]

3. a bunch of hooey to be sure...

taking numbers from the American Petrolium Institute pages (So these aren't some 'left-wing tree-hugging' numbers here) ANWR optimistically has 16 billion barrels of recoverable oil. In April 2004 the US imported oil at a rate of 12.2 million barrels per day.

Assuming that this rate of oil importation remains constant and the rate of production of other domestic sources also remains constant (which is a complete and utter fantasy) the oil in ANWR would last 1312 days, or about 3.5 years.

[toddzilla]

4. thanks!

links are broken though.. i went to the api site, but i'm not sure where or what you searched for to get the info.

[Salviati]

5. That's too bad...

That the links don't work. I always like hoisting people on the pitard oof their own numbers...

[toddzilla]

6. i found some of it.

it doesn't matter because this guy always ignores me when i make a fool of him. I only do it because many other people follow our online arguments.

thanks again.

[northzax]

7. if ANWR is such a great place to drill

why is it that no major oil company, rapacious exploiters that they are, is interested in developing it without significant gov't subsidies? If there was really 58 years of recoverable oil there, ExxonMobil or ChevronTexaco would be on that like flies on shit. but they aren't. they don't want to develop it without the gubmint building all the infrastructure. ANWR is like missile defense, a fantasy that companies are perfectly willing to go along with, as long as Uncle Sam picks up the tab.

[hatrack]

8. USGS gives a 5% chance of there being as much as 16bbl

A more likely number is probably around 5-7 bbl.

[Viking12]

9. Some links

USGS Fact Sheet on ANWR

http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs-0028-01/fs-0028-01.pdf

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2001. Potential impacts of proposed oil and gas development on the Arctic Refuge’s coastal plain: Historical overview and issues of concern. Web page of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Fairbanks, Alaska. 17 January 2001.

http://arctic.fws.gov/issues1.html


The EIA-DOE also published a report in March or Paril of this year that did a financial analysis which concluded that drilling NAWr would reduce oil prices by less than $.50/barrel. Conveniently that report has been buried at the EIA-DOE website.