(Media-Newswire.com) - Scientists from the University of California, Santa Cruz, and other institutions have analyzed the events of 2005 in a series of papers published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters ( GRL ), and they are busy analyzing more data collected this year. At the back of everyone's mind is a troubling question: Are these unusual conditions part of the natural variability of the California Current system, or do they signal a shift to a new oceanographic regime?
"Once is a fluke, but two years in a row makes you think something might be happening. If it happened again next year I'd be really worried," said Raphael Kudela, associate professor of ocean sciences at UCSC. The conditions are consistent with scenarios for the regional effects of global warming, based on the projections of climate models for future decades. Even if the current changes are not related to global warming, they may be giving us a preview of future oceanographic conditions in a warmer world, Kudela said.
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UCSC researchers monitoring sea lions in Monterey Bay observed unprecedented feeding behaviors in 2005. Normally a strictly coastal species, the sea lions went hundreds of miles offshore in search of fish, the scientists reported in one of the GRL papers. The study was led by UCSC graduate student Michael Weise and professor of ecology and evolutionary biology Daniel Costa ( see related news release ). Kudela and his coauthors--William Cochlan of San Francisco State University, UCSC postdoctoral researcher Tawnya Peterson, and Charles Trick of the University of Western Ontario, Canada--found that the phytoplankton recovered quickly when the winds finally kicked in and upwelling began later in the year. But the animals that graze on the phytoplankton took much longer to respond. "There seems to be a window of opportunity that was missed when the upwelling was delayed," Kudela said. "A key organism is the krill, because krill feed directly on the phytoplankton and they, in turn, are fed on by all kinds of other organisms, from fish and seabirds to whales. So if the krill are affected it has a huge impact."
Phytoplankton blooms are essential for the reproductive success of krill, said Baldo Marinovic, a UCSC research biologist who monitors krill populations in Monterey Bay. "About a week after the eggs hatch, the larvae start feeding, and they can't survive if there are no phytoplankton. The adult krill can survive without the phytoplankton, but they won't reproduce," Marinovic said. "In 2005, the adult krill that had overwintered layed eggs in the spring, but the larvae didn't survive. This year we had a similar situation, although it wasn't as bad because we did have some degree of upwelling." The krill population recovered later in the year, but by that time it was too late for many of the seabirds and other animals that depend on a springtime boom in the krill population. Scientists reported widespread seabird mortality and nesting failures.
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