Peak Oil And The Problem Of Infrastructure

[4dsc]

For all those that believe we can engage in unlimited growth with limited resources!!


Most schemes for a post-oil technology are based on the misconception that there will be an infrastructure, similar to that of the present day, which could support such future gadgetry. Modern equipment, however, is dependent on specific methods of manufacture, transportation, maintenance, and repair. In less abstract terms, this means machinery, motorized vehicles, and service depots or shops, all of which are generally run by fossil fuels. In addition, one unconsciously assumes the presence of electricity, which energizes the various communications devices, such as telephones and computers; electricity on such a large scale is only possible with fossil fuels.

To believe that a non-petroleum infrastructure is possible, one would have to imagine, for example, solar-powered machines creating equipment for the production and storage of electricity by means of solar energy. This equipment would then be loaded on to solar-powered trucks, driven to various locations, and installed with other solar-powered devices, and so on, _ad absurdum_ and _ad infinitum_. Such a scenario might provide material for a work of science fiction, but not for genuine science. The sun simply does not work that way.

It is not only oil that will soon be gone. Iron ore of the sort that can be processed with primitive equipment is becoming scarce, and only the less-tractable forms will be available when the oil-powered machinery is no longer available - a chicken-and-egg problem. Copper, aluminum, and other metals are also rapidly vanishing. Metals were useful to mankind only because they could once be found in concentrated pockets in the earth's crust; now they are irretrievably scattered among the world's garbage dumps.

The infrastructure will no longer be in place: oil, electricity, and asphalt roads. Partly for that reason, the social structure will also no longer be in place: intricate division of labor, large-scale government, and high-level education. Without the infrastructure and the social structure, it will be impossible to produce the familiar goods of industrial society.

http://www.countercurrents.org/po-goodchild290906.htm

[WHEN CRABS ROAR]

1. Change is constant

The big problem is to stop production of weapons.

[4dsc]

2. Change will not stop peak oil from occuring

Nothing will change the fact that oil will peak worldwide in your lifetime. Is that constant enough for ya!!

[WHEN CRABS ROAR]

3. Didn't say that. I agree

[gristy]

4. I suggest one just ignore this guy

He talks about the need for solar powered trucks and other solar powered machines. He claims that metals cannot be retrieved from dumps. He claims that large-scale electricity is only possible with fossil fuels. Wrong, wrong, and wrong. The planet's ability to support us all is going down the tubes, but this guy is not the guy to chronicle it.

[bhikkhu]

5. A wake up call is still a wake up call

whether you agree with the future predictions of the caller. I think any reasonable person would agree change is inevitable, and is also incredibly difficult on a cultural level. I waver between pessimism and hope myself, and weigh both.

[Ready4Change]

6. Problem: Using an oil-based mindset to imagine a non-oil based future.

A problem we are having is the result of fossil fuels being such a powerfully convenient power source. They have been easy (cheap) to get, are available in multiple forms good for many uses. They can do it all. One stop shopping, with the side effect of poisoning our climate.

So, if you use this mindset of One source must do all, the future doesn't seem possible. Solar can't power trucks at night. Biodeisel farming can't sustain industrial power needs. It's not always windy. It's not always sunny.

If you insist that ONE thing do it all, the future doesn't work.

I think, if you consider using potential sources in places they fit, that the future may work very well indeed.

[XemaSab]

7. Decentralizing power will be relatively easy

if we start planning for it today.

[bhikkhu]

8. Interesting thought -the mining of the future may be in the trash dumps

of the 20th century.