Meeting ‘peak-oil threat’ will cost $20tn: US

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We are only kidding ourselves if we believe the US is going to meet any goals concerning peak oil..

The world needs to spend $1tn a year in alternative fuels, starting 20 years before the peak in conventional oil production, in order to mitigate fuel shortages, a US Energy Department study showed.

Production peaks in Texas, the UK and Norway were examined as part of two studies for the department that advised on “crash course’’ efforts to cope with an eventual shortage of gasoline and other liquid fuels.

The study, led by Robert Hirsch, didn’t predict when world production will peak, though Hirsch told reporters his guess is “within the next five to 10 years.’’

“Conventional oil will peak at some point,’’ Hirsch said at the Oil and Money Conference in London. To lessen the impact, “we have to start a long time before the peak or we’ll have severe liquid fuels shortages worldwide.’’

Conventional oil production peaked in Texas in 1972, North America in 1985, the UK in 1999 and Norway in 2001, and all of those peaks were “sharp and sudden,’’ he said. To offset losses when world output peaks, “unconventional oil’’ will need to be rapidly developed, including heavy oil, oil sands, coal liquefaction, gas-to-liquids and enhanced oil recovery. Vehicle fuel efficiency will need to be improved.

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