8/29 Drought Monitor - SE Worse, N. Plains Slightly Wetter

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National Drought Summary -- August 29, 2006


The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilized include the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast web page used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

The Southeast, Gulf Coast, and Mid-Atlantic: Dryness continued across the Mid-Atlantic region with moderate drought (D1) conditions expanding southward from central Maryland, across Virginia and into north central North Carolina. D0 conditions also remained over the rest of Maryland, Delaware, and much of Virginia and North Carolina. Abnormally warm and dry weather has persisted over the area for much of the month with temperatures averaging 2-4°F above normal and precipitation percentages less than 60% of normal. Virginia reported top soil moisture deteriorating from 31% short or very short at the start of the month to 77% currently. Streamflows are also a concern as many gauges are reporting in the lowest 10th percentile. Farther to the south, dry conditions in Georgia were eased due to rains during the first half of the week.

Along the central Gulf Coast and Florida, persistent showers and thunderstorms spread 2 to 5 inches of rain, improving conditions across most of the area. Low stream flows across the northern half of Florida, however, still kept it abnormally dry.

The Plains and Midwest: Thunderstorms brought moderate to heavy rains (1 to 4 inches) to a large area from the Texas panhandle northeastward across Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, northwestern Arkansas, Missouri, southern Iowa, and the western edge of Illinois. Heavy rains (up to 5 inches) fell in west central Missouri, eliminating the D3 and reducing the D2 drought areas. Northwestern Arkansas also received heavy rains as drought was reduced to a D0. Drought categories were lessened over most of the remainder of the area as well. Moderate to heavy rainfall also reached from eastern North Dakota southeastward across the southern half of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and into northern Illinois. This resulted in improvements and the elimination of the D0 areas in southern and central Wisconsin and northern Illinois.

In contrast, in the southern Plains, the D4 in the lower Rio Grande Valley was pushed northeastward into central Texas as a result of more hot and dry weather. Very little rain fell while temperatures averaged 4-8°F above normal. Dallas/Fort Worth had recorded 19 straight days with temperatures in triple digits. However, a strong cold front pushed southeastward out of the northern High Plains during the latter half of the week into central Texas at week’s end. On Monday, Dallas/Fort Worth reported their first below-normal reading since July 26.

The Rockies, West, and Southwest: The wet pattern continued in the Southwest. Monsoon rains brought scattered precipitation into the region, allowing for some improvements in the drought status. In New Mexico and southeastern Arizona, the D1 and D0 conditions were reduced.

In the central Rockies, rains eased the dryness somewhat but the drought categories remained mostly unchanged. Little or no rain in the northern Rockies brought no change in the drought classifications.

Due to some agricultural and fire danger concerns, an abnormally dry area has been introduced into the Northwest. Although normals are low during August (.3 to 1 inch in the affected region), little or no rain has accumulated during this period.

Hawaii: Another dry week in Hawaii. No changes were implemented as impacts related to the dryness have not been observed.

Looking Ahead: Ongoing or forecast weather that could affect dry or drought areas during the next 2 weeks include: 1) Tropical Depression Ernesto tracking north toward the mid-Atlantic region, bringing soaking rains from Florida northward to Virginia and Maryland through September 2; 2) below-normal temperatures over central and eastern parts of the nation; 3) above-normal rains the next 2 weeks over the southern Rockies into west Texas; 4) continued warm and dry in the Northwest.

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