8/24 Drought Monitor - North & South Plains Terrible, Deep South Worsening

[hatrack]

The Southeast, Gulf Coast, and Mid-Atlantic: Dryness returned to the Mid-Atlantic region and with it the introduction of moderate drought (D1) conditions to Virginia, Maryland, and West Virginia. Precipitation deficits are greater than 8 inches for the year in several locations, with Lynchburg, Virginia, at 8.56 inches below normal and Danville, Virginia, at 8.01 inches below normal for the year. After a very wet July through much of the region, abnormally dry (D0) conditions were expanded to include the southern half of New Jersey, all of Delaware, and eastern Pennsylvania, where short-term dryness is common throughout the area. Several locations are recording record low precipitation totals for August, with Philadelphia, Alltentown, Wilmington, Atlantic City, Trenton, and Reading all at all-time record lows, with some records going back to the 1860s. The leading impacts at this time are related to agricultural concerns, as the region still benefits from heavy rains earlier in the summer that shored up water supplies. In North Carolina, widely scattered precipitation was not enough to hold off further deterioration of drought conditions in the state. D1 was introduced to the northern Piedmont region and D0 was expanded to the coast. Agricultural concerns as well as reduced streamflows were the main triggers for this expansion. Farther to the south, drought categories in Georgia were expanded owing to both short- and long-term dryness. Streamflow and soil moisture conditions through much of the state are also worsening.

Along the Gulf Coast, some improvements in the D0 conditions on the western side of the Florida peninsula were granted as a result of reports of up to 5 inches of rain. Most of the Gulf Coast states were held in check this week, with reports of 1-inch rainfalls or more quite common through the region. The D2 conditions in northwest Arkansas were expanded slightly where dryness continues and impacts are being observed.

The Midwest: Cool and dry weather dominated conditions over much of the Midwest this last week. Temperatures were generally 2-4°F below normal, with the coolest temperatures through Iowa, Wisconsin, and Illinois. Heavy rains fell in southwest to south central Iowa, where drought conditions were improved. D1 conditions were pushed back to the south and to the north, leaving D0 behind. D0 was expanded in an area from southwest Iowa through north central Illinois and into central Wisconsin. This area has experienced short-term dryness and has also shown reduced streamflows and soil moisture deficits. The area of D2 in west central Missouri was expanded to the south and east because of continued dryness and agricultural impacts in the region.

The Plains and Rockies: The central Plains continued the wetter trend this week, with parts of Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota recording the most rain. Flooding rains took place over parts of south central Nebraska, where official COOP reports of more than 4 inches were common and some unofficial reports of more than 7 inches left water standing in fields, small streams over their banks, and some roads being washed out. This rain was too late for much of the dryland corn in the region, but should allow a better yield on soybeans. These rains allowed widespread improvements over much of central Kansas and into southeast Nebraska. All of the D2 was removed from south central Nebraska and D1 was also improved, pushing the D1 line farther to the northwest. In Kansas, a reduction of D0 allowed a drought-free area to be placed in the north central part of the state, while a great deal of D1 was removed in climate divisions 7 and 8. Rains over the D3 and D4 regions of South Dakota allowed for improvements as well this week. The D4 region was reduced on the northern and eastern edges, while the D3 was brought back along the Missouri River. In southeast South Dakota, the D2 and D1 regions were reduced in the Sioux Falls area, where more than 4 inches of rain has fallen so far this month and precipitation for the year is 2.08 inches above normal.

The southern Plains experienced another week of above-normal temperatures, with departures of 6-8°F above normal in Oklahoma and north central Texas. The panhandle and west Texas did receive rains this week that led to improvement of the drought categories. In the panhandle, a shift to the east of the D0, D1, and D2 categories reflects widespread 1- to 2-inch rainfall amounts, along with the wetter pattern of recent weeks. West Texas showed improvements from continued rains in the region. El Paso has recorded 6.39 inches of rain for the month of August, bringing their yearly total to 11.03 inches, which is 5.81 inches above normal. The drought designation for the region shifted drought categories to the east, increasing the area of D0 and reducing the areas of D1 and D2 accordingly. The D4 region in north central Texas was expanded to the south owing to continued dryness in that region. The D4 region in southern Texas was also expanded to the south to the Laredo area. Laredo has received only 7.82 inches of precipitation this year, which is 55% of normal. San Antonio has recorded only 13.40 inches of precipitation from September 1, 2005, to August 21, 2006. This is the third driest on record for that period, with records going back to 1885. Along the Texas Gulf Coast, the areas of D1, D2, and D3 were expanded to the east, further tightening the drought gradient that exists from the coast inland.

The West and Southwest: The wet pattern continued for much of the Southwest. Monsoon rains continued to bring precipitation into the region, allowing for continued improvements in the drought status of the region. In New Mexico, D1 and D0 conditions were reduced over much of the state. A large area free of drought designation exists in central New Mexico and a new drought-free area was introduced in northeast New Mexico. After a dry start to the year, many locations in New Mexico are at or above normal for the year, and flooding concerns across the state have superseded drought concerns. In Arizona, the wet pattern has allowed for many hydrological issues to improve and is shown in the current drought status. The Salt/Verde reservoir system has actually increased water storage by 8000 acre feet of water in the last week and is at 65 percent capacity, which is above normal for this time of year. In southern Arizona, the D3 and D2 were reduced in response to the recent rains. The precipitation values in this region are still 70 percent of normal for the Water Year in southern Arizona, holding off further improvements at this time.

Alaska: A wet pattern continued to bring rains over much of Alaska, even severe weather in Anchorage, with hail being reported. Precipitation reports were quite impressive, with Yakutat and Portage Glacier reporting more than 7 inches of rain and Talkeetna recording more than 6 inches. With the widespread heavy rains in the D0 areas and Water Year values close to normal, the D0 areas were removed this week.

Hawaii: A fairly dry week in Hawaii. No changes were implemented as impacts related to the dryness have not been observed.

Looking Ahead: The next five days (August 24-28) continues with the wet pattern stretching from the desert Southwest through the central Plains and into the Great Lakes region. Precipitation will also be likely over much of the Gulf Coast to the Florida peninsula. Temperatures during this time are going to be coolest in the areas of precipitation, but much of the country will see normal to slightly above normal temperatures for this time of year. The trough that dominates the west at the start of the period will slowly migrate across the country, with frontal timing being the main trigger for precipitation and temperature fluctuations.

For the ensuing 5 days (August 29-September 2) a trough will continue to move through the Great Lakes region and into New England, increasing precipitation chances over much of the east coast of the United States. The outlook for the western and central United States is better than normal chances of being dry during this time frame, with the monsoon rains continuing in parts of the Southwest. Temperatures during this time are expected to be above normal for the western and central portions of the United States and coolest over the Mid-Atlantic, in the center of the mean trough pattern. Alaska is forecasted to be cooler than normal with above-normal chances for precipitation along the southern coast. The pattern for Hawaii shows increasing chances of precipitation as moisture becomes more available.

Author: Brian Fuchs, National Drought Mitigation Center

http://drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

[NMDemDist2]

1. we got rid of our drought in NM

with big floods

[NNadir]

2. After an abnormally wet early summer, we are seeing drought here

in New Jersey.

I've seen a lot of withered corn, actually to the North of line drawn on the map for our DO areas.

I live near Trenton.

Wide swings, wide swings...

[amandabeech]

3. Same here in the Harrisburg, PA, area.

What started out as a bumper crop is looking rather dry, although the soybeans look better.