Rethinking America's Cars

[4dsc]

http://www.fcnp.com/624/peakoil.htm

The author once again hit the nail on the head when he writes "Number one is that hardly anybody recognizes there is a problem". Until then its business as usual. Shop, spend and waste.. The American way!

Anyone who studies peak oil for very long soon learns that oil-for-export is going to dry up a lot faster than oil-for-domestic-consumption and those countries that import most or all of their motor fuel are going to have problems very soon. Here in the US , with our 10 million barrels a day (b/d) gasoline habit, we are going to be leading the pack to new ways of motoring.

Our cars will very quickly come to be valued for one characteristic: how far can they go on a gallon of gas. To get through the first decades of peak oil, only those that get very high mileage, or preferably do not use liquid fuels at all, will be affordable or useful for most of us.

Manufacturers certainly can make 40-mpg cars— Europe is full of them. They know how to make 100-mpg cars— Volkswagen had one for a while that got 235 mpg. They know how to make plug-in hybrids that can do a lot of their running on off-the-grid electricity. Satisfactory, affordable batteries appear to be on the way. Detroit even knows how to make electric cars that require no fossil fuels at all.

There are two major problems in getting from today's world to one in which our motor vehicles consume only a fraction of the fuel they currently use. Number one is that hardly anybody recognizes there is a problem, and number two is what to do with the America 's inventory of 200+ million cars and light trucks. There’s unlikely to be enough money or production capacity to replace them with little, ultra-efficient cars after oil imports take a precipitous drop.

[Kolesar]

1. Our minivans are getting fatter

I decided to read some old specifications at www.edmunds.com . The 1985 Plymouth Voyager, in all it's leaf-sprung, 2.2 liter glory, weighed 3400 pounds. By 2000, a Ford Windstar, with a crash rating that could take you through a brick wall at 35 mph, weighed 4000 pounds. Now you can buy a minivan from many makes with more doors than ever, complicated seats that fold down, and lots of parts like antilock brakes and all that crap that weigh in at 4300 pounds. They added 900 pounds. Oink, oink.

[TreasonousBastard]

2. Aside from the production problem mentioned...

just how are most people going to afford to replace 200 million cars? And what about the environmental effects of building those replacements if we have the means?

Squeezing the last mile out of a gallon is a good idea, if people take it seriously-- which history shows is unlikely for a while. Look how many people, even here, insist high gas prices are a plot.

The word we dare not speak is "rationing."

[4dsc]

3. Ding, ding, ding, we have a winner

just how are most people going to afford to replace 200 million cars? And what about the environmental effects of building those replacements if we have the means?

Ask the tough questions and you'll get no answer for sure.. The transition to another alternative energy source is not going to be easy which is why any talk of a transition is being ignored..

Our future lies in a world where our collective energy needs will have to be greatly REDUCED!!

[Strelnikov_]

6. "That Of Which We Shall Not Speak"

http://www.markfiore.com/animation/petro.html

[LSK]

9. they are going to make new cars ANYWAYS

Its just how things go. How many 20 or 30 year old cars do you see? I drive a 12 year old one and most of the time its the oldest thing around.

[TreasonousBastard]

10. 10-15 million new cars a year...

are sold around the country. I don't see many beaters around here, either, but I live in a fairly wealthy area. A lot of rhinestone cowboy (or rather, farmer) types around here who just have to have the biggest pickup Ford or Dodge makes every year. (And 50' boats are being sold as fast as they can get here-- that's maybe 50-100 gallons per HOUR when they're on the way to the fishing grounds or Connecticut.)

So, this means up to a 20 year cycle to replace all 200 million cars. Of course, not all of them are not going to be replaced for various reasons.

What will probably happen is that the gas guzzlers will be sold at a hefty discount to people who can't afford the newer efficient cars, causing more problems. And the new gas guzzlers will still be sold to those who can afford them.

So, the problem will be solved, but not soon and not easily.

[Ready4Change]

12. My answer:

"just how are most people going to afford to replace 200 million cars?"

Within 5 years, most of those 200 million cars will be replaced, regardless their milage ratings. Most people who buy new cars will buy another to replace their now "old" car within 5 years. That old car will be bought by someone who will drive it another 5 years, and then it will most likely be dumped.

So, if high milage vehicles become THE car to have, 1/2 of the cars on the road will be hight milage vehicles within 5 years, and all within 10.

It doesn't have to be all 200 million cars at once.

"And what about the environmental effects of building those replacements if we have the means?"

In the next 5-10 years 200 million cars will be built, regardless. The only question is: will they be Priuses, or SUVs?

[Ezlivin]

4. Recycle the 200+ million cars?

Since it takes less energy to recycle and use materials perhaps we could initiate a massive "car recall" program. There are tons of useful metals and plastics still remaining in those 200+ million cars.

Don't ask me for details. Mongo is only pawn in game of life.

[Dover]

5. That's why we are seeing the huge used car discount lots cropping up

Can't remember the name of them right now, but they seem like they are ready to deal with a huge volume.

I imagine auto companies will try to dump their inventories on 'emerging' economies (3rd world).

[NickB79]

7. The US already dumps crappy used cars on Mexico

I just sold an old Ford Taurus this summer as a trade-in on a newer car. I told them all the things that were wrong with it (break problems, transmission problems, some body damage, etc) and the guy told me not to worry, they would fix it as best they could up and send it down to Mexico! I had no idea they do this.

[LeftyMom]

8. A lot of wrecked cars wind up down there too

Or bought on the cheap, fixed up and kept barely running by immigrants here in the US (one side effect of not being able to get a DL or insurance is that there's no incentive to get a car that isn't a cheap rattling deathtrap, when you know the cops will tow it if they pull you over.)

[tinrobot]

11. There were hardly any cars in 1906

By 1926, the figure was in the tens of millions.

In 1976, hardly anyone had a personal computer, by 1996 they were everywhere.

In 1996, there were 20 million people on the web, by 2006, there were billions.

A lot can change in a decade or two.

It is now 2006 - we can do a lot by 2026 if we put an effort into it.