8/17 Drought Update - NM Easing, But Texas, N. Plains States Withering

[hatrack]

The Southeast, Gulf Coast, and Mid-Atlantic: Last week was marked by spotty rains falling over parts of the region, leading to continued improvements for some and worsening conditions for others. Above-normal temperatures during the week also prevailed over most of the region. In those areas the rains missed, some deterioration is noted this week, most notably in central and southern Florida, where short- and long-term deficits continue to mount. Many locations are seeing deficits of 8 to 16 inches on the year (50-70% of normal). This has lead to D0 and D1 expanding southward into the Lake Okeechobee region. Statewide, soil moisture and streamflows have dropped considerably and fire danger is high along the eastern side of the peninsula as well. Along the Gulf Coast, improvement continues this week, with D1 and D2 retreating eastward toward Alabama. Heavy rains in southeast Arkansas have also led to the removal of D3 there, along with a reduction of D3 on the border with Mississippi. Farther north, 3- to 5-inch rains along the Atlantic Seaboard have led to improvements in the D0 along the South Carolina coast, while the lack of rains to the north led to expansion of D0 eastward toward the coast in North Carolina. Meanwhile, in western North Carolina, heavy rains (3 to 5 inches) have led to some improvements on the D1’s eastern side. After a very wet June, dryness has also returned over the past month and is reflected this week in a northward advancement of D0 conditions into northern Virginia, western Maryland, extreme south-central Pennsylvania, and eastern West Virginia. This recent dry spell has returned many locations to totals well below normal on the year in this area.

The Midwest: A cooler and wetter pattern settled in over the region last week, bringing good rains to parts of Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, and Kentucky. This has mostly led to improvements in these areas. The D3 that extended from northern Minnesota over into eastern North Dakota has been reduced and pushed back eastward into Minnesota on the heels of 2 to 3 inches (or more) of rain in some parts. Severe drought (D2) in Iowa has been eliminated in both western and southern Iowa as well after beneficial 2- to 4-inch rains fell. Although impacts to some crops, such as corn, have already been felt, it should provide a good boost to soybeans, streams, pastures, and the upper soil moisture levels. The cooler temperatures have also played an important role in this short-term recovery. In Missouri, the impacts are really starting to pour in throughout the west-central region, where soil moisture and pasture conditions are predominantly very poor as of this writing. Both long- and short-term climatic indicators agree in showing large deficits on the year and a lingering hangover from dryness in 2005. As a result, an area of D3 has been introduced into west-central Missouri this week. Rains in eastern Kentucky led to the removal of D1 there but the D0 has expanded northward out of Kentucky and into southern Ohio where the rains didn’t materialize. To the west, D0 in southeastern Illinois has been removed after the heavy rains of last week.

The Plains and Rockies: Hot temperatures dominated from the Dakotas to the Gulf of Mexico last week. The northern and central Plains also enjoyed moderate rainfall, but their neighbors in the southern Plains weren’t as fortunate. Thus, a mixed bag of improvements and deterioration is noted on this week’s map. In the north, 2 to 4 inches of rain were scattered over parts of eastern Kansas, Nebraska, and the Dakotas. In general, some slight improvements are noted here, keeping in mind that the dryness and heat of weeks past have already done a lot of damage to the region. In the Dakotas, D3 has been removed from North Dakota while a slight pushing (reduction) of the dryness/drought (D0-D4) has been made in eastern and central South Dakota as well. In Nebraska, D2 has been removed and D1 has been reduced to D0 in the extreme southeast corner, which has teetered on the edge of drought off and on all summer. This improvement is noted in eastern and northeastern Kansas, northwestern Missouri, and southwestern Iowa as well with the removal of D1, leaving D0 in its wake. Rainfall amounts here generally ranged from 2 to 3 inches.

Farther south, Oklahoma and Texas continue to feel the brunt of the recent heat (4-8° above normal) and dryness. On a relatively positive note, northern Oklahoma did see favorable rains for a change, with scattered 1- to 4-inch totals being reported from the Panhandle eastward to the north-central part of the state. In general, the only rains of note in the entire state of Texas were confined to the Panhandle and once again to the Gulf Coast. As a result, this week’s map generally shows some subtle improvements in Oklahoma and worsening conditions in Texas. The D3 in northern Oklahoma has been pushed southward to reflect the recent wetness, but conditions are still quite severe here. It will take a persistent change in the pattern to reflect favorably on pasture and soil moisture conditions in the region. The D2 has once again crept back into the northeastern reaches of the state. The large area of D4 straddling the Oklahoma/Texas state line has actually expanded this week because of the unrelenting heat and dryness that has plagued the region all year. In Oklahoma, this D4 region has advanced westward and a tad northward. In Texas, most of the D4 expansion is noted westward and slightly southward. In southern Texas, D2 has once again advanced south to form a steep gradient between the fortunate and unfortunate along the Gulf Coast. In southwestern Texas, the D4 has pushed a bit to the east and south, bounded by San Antonio in the east and the Texas/Mexico border to the west. Totals here are still running 25-50% of normal (8- to 16-inch deficits) on the year. A recent report issued by economists with the Texas Cooperative Extension service shows that the drought of 2006 has already (preliminary results) set a modern-day record of $4.1 billion in economic losses, with major losses occurring in both the livestock and cotton industries.

The West and Southwest: The “monster monsoon” continues as the tap stayed open yet again for many parts of the Southwest. New Mexico and Arizona seemed to benefit the most save for the flooding associated with the hard and heavy rains (more than 2 to 4 inches). They are still a welcomed sight when considering the fact that the region was passed over when it came to snow this past winter. Even though the active rains of this monsoon have been plentiful, they won’t lead to a huge increase in water supply. It will provide for a nice green-up, but the larger reservoirs are very low and will need a big winter to help them recover. The improvements to this week’s map reflect the short term, as many locations within these two states are running well above 200% of normal during the monsoon-to-date period. Year-to-date and Water Year-to-date totals are still lacking in Arizona, however. Changes of note this week include a change from D0 to normal in west-central New Mexico. In an incredible turn of fortune, they are now actually above normal on the Water Year. Changes were much more subtle in Arizona, where the longer-term deficits are still high. A slight improvement in southeastern Arizona is depicted this week, with a slight 1-category pushing westward to reflect the heavy rains of last week and 60-day totals.

In looking north, we see dryness invading again in earnest across Montana and Wyoming, where D3 has now spread across most of southern Montana and down into western Wyoming, connecting the pockets of D3 that were isolated in the past. The D1 has also pushed westward into Montana’s Bitterroot region.

Alaska: As summer winds down, good rains continued to fall on both areas of D0 within the state. A slight trimming of D0 is noted this week, but the regions remain mostly intact.

Hawaii: Most of the islands saw little precipitation last week, leading to unchanged conditions this week.

Looking Ahead: The next five days (August 10-14, 2006) are expected to feature a high pressure system working its way in from the West into the mid-section of the country over the weekend, bringing warmer temperatures to virtually all of the United States. As for precipitation, the best bet for good rains is found in New Mexico and on a transect from the Texas Panhandle northeastward up through western Oklahoma, Kansas, eastern Nebraska, northern Missouri, and southern Iowa. North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota should see favorable rains as well. The Ohio Valley and Gulf Coast down into the Florida peninsula could share in the wealth as well.

For the ensuing 5 days (August 15 – 19, 2006), temperatures are expected to heat up over the western half of the country as a ridge sets up camp, with the downstream troughing leaving the Great Lakes region, the Ohio Valley, and the Mid-Atlantic in cooler air. Southern Florida is expected to be warmer than normal as well. Under the ridge, precipitation is expected to be below normal, although the monsoon seems to be immune to it during this period as rains are expected to be above normal in the Four Corners region. The other areas having better odds of seeing above-normal precipitation are the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and the entire Atlantic Seaboard from Florida up to Maine.

[soothsayer]

1. Where's HAARP when you need it?

[4dsc]

2. Drought disappearing in Iowa

With much need rain over the past 2 weeks, the thought of drought has all but disappeared from the radar.. Although I don't know how it will help with crops already effected by lack of rain.. Crops in Western Iowa look like crap compared to eastern Iowa..