Energy Bulletin - Skrebowski Skewers CERA's Cockeyed Optimism

[hatrack]

EDIT

POR: Cambridge Energy Research Associates just came out with a new report—"Expansion Set to Continue: Global Liquids Productive Capacity to 2015"--that projects a 25% production increase between now and 2015. Can you comment? We realize you’re off on an extended trip to Australia momentarily, so you probably haven’t had a chance to look at the full report…

Skrebowski: Very briefly, consider a few of the key facts from CERA’s summary:
CERA has higher Russian production than the Russian government.
CERA projects higher OPEC production than even OPEC claims on its website. In terms of some individual fields they have higher output than OPEC claims.
In 2009 they project production from Uruguay, despite the fact that the Petrobras house magazine (latest issue) says it's a 2011 start-up for a project they've only just sanctioned.
BP’s start up in Angola by 2009 is another implausibility zone (among many).
As if that was not enough they have global production several million b/d higher in 2011 than the IEA's new Medium Term Market Report (this only goes to 2011). As the IEA is usually criticized (correctly) for being too optimistic, CERA's estimates (which escalate dramatically after 2011) are frankly just plain fantasy.

This raises two immediate questions: First, did CERA just start with the answer -- 110 million b/d in 2015 -- and then work backwards to fit? Second, on whose behalf or behest are they issuing this nonsense?

Chris Skrebowski, with the Energy Institute (London), has edited The Petroleum Review since 1997. He has spent his entire working career in the oil industry, split roughly two-thirds as an oil journalist and one-third as a planner/market analyst within the industry (for BP, Saudi Arabia, etc.)

EDIT/END

http://www.energybulletin.net/19304.html

[acmejack]

1. well obviously Mr Skrebowski can't be correct!

His conclusions aren't nearly as agreeable. We ceate our own realty, that's what we empires do. Didn't you get the memo? Sheesh, get with the program, willya?

[IrateCitizen]

2. Skrebowski is the only analyst to review ALL global "megaprojects"...

... upon which the flow of oil vitally depends. I trust his judgment perhaps more than any other analyst out there.

Certainly more than Daniel Yergin and CERA, who have proven themselves to be little more than shills for the oil industry. I especially liked the way Skrebowski pointed out that CERA's projections for both OPEC and Russian production were higher than those published by OPEC and Russia themselves.

[Strelnikov_]

3. "On Whose Behalf Or Behest Are They Issuing This Nonsense?"

Well, who would profit from the delaying of a transition from petroleum energy sources? Don't want the addicts to find out the supply may be on the verge of decline and the price about to spike. They may make other arrangements.

Peak oil = Peak profits.



(Although I now think that the looming turf war over which crew will control the stash will render most of these predictions moot)