The hurricane oracle speaks...

[phantom power]

There's a nice discussion of hurricane factors with illustrations, which is best read at the link, but here is the prediction:

Summary
The relatively quiet hurricane season we've been enjoying is not going to last. A very active period will start, as soon as the atmosphere destabilizes a bit more. If one believes the long-range 2-week outlook from the GFS model, the current quiet period should last another 4-12 days. Around August 21, I expect it will appear that a switch has been thrown, and the Atlantic will be very active indeed. Expect our first hurricane in the Atlantic by August 26, and a very active September. However, I do expect we will get many recurving storms that will miss land, and that this hurricane season will be similar to the ones we experienced in 1995-2003.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=462&tstamp=200608

[skids]

1. Yeah, things started really churning over the weekend.

Though the stills don't do it justice. The jet stream has been twisting and turning and that brown spot in the middle used to be a smooth stripe across the the whole atlantic with fast straight winds -- now it's been sliced and diced. The big low center of circulation up in Eastern Canada was down to 989 pressure at one point and seems to be causing all sorts of havoc.

[Warpy]

2. I imagine the same pattern that is drowning New Mexico

is what has kept storms washing out before they have a chance to turn into anything.

I hope it breaks down soon. I'm gonna have to build an Ark if it doesn't.

[depakid]

3. I wouldn't curse the rain in New Mexico

I'd welcome every bit of it (be kinda nice if it came a little more evenly- but still).

[Warpy]

4. I didn't until last night.

The roar of torrential rain kept me up all night.

ENOUGH, already. Roads are washed out, new arroyos have opened up, cement diversion channels have been breached, houses all over town have been flooded and people have lost everything. Now we're being warned about skeeters and West Nile and equine encephalitis.

It's time to go back to being a desert.

[Boomer]

5. Welcome to the new "normal"

Thanks to global warming, weather extremes will become the norm.