No more business as usual-peak oil

[4dsc]

http://www.energybulletin.net/19180.html

Damn good read..

ALI SAMSAM BAKHTIARI is a retired "senior energy expert," formerly employed by the National Iranian Oil Co. (NIOC) of Tehran, Iran. He has held a number of important positions with NIOC since 1971. He is currently attached to the director's office in the Corporate Planning Directorate of NIOC, and specializes in questions related to the global oil, gas and petrochemical industries. This alone ought to pique your interest because Bakhtiari has the ear of the most important decision-makers in Iran. What is he telling them?

Fortunately for us in the West, Bakhtiari is also an independent consultant who writes and speaks to a worldwide audience on the subject of oil depletion in general, and Peak Oil in particular. His tribal name, Bakhtiari, means "companions of good fortune," and the story of his life is somewhat emblematic of that meaning. Based on what I have seen, Bakhtiari has a gift for understanding, and a unique ability to share this gift with others. There are few more qualified people in the world who can discuss Peak Oil. So when Bakhtiari talks, people ought to listen.

And as an aside, anyone within the Western diplomatic or military community who deals with Iranian issues at almost any level needs to understand what Bakhtiari has been telling the leadership of Iran. What do the mullahs know about oil that you may not know? It might just explain a few things about Iranian behavior.

Oil at $100-150 per Barrel

In a recent public address to the Senate of Australia, Bakhtiari stated that "I can see a range of $100-150 not very far into the future." He amplified this statement as follows:

"We are entering an era in which we know nothing much, where we have a brand-new set of rules...One of these new rules, in my opinion, is that there will be in the very near future nothing like business as usual. In my opinion, nothing is usual from now on for any of the countries involved. And the lower you are in the pile, the worse it is going to get."

Bakhtiari believes that the world is at Peak Oil, producing about as much conventional oil on a daily basis as will ever be produced, now about 84 million barrels per day. From here on, the oil markets of the world will be dealing with the ongoing effects of oil field depletion and irreversible production decline. By 2025, Bakhtiari expects that the world's daily production of conventional oil will fall to a level between 50-55 million barrels of oil per day. Bakhtiari counsels that the world's governments, industries, and people accept the fact and begin to prepare. There is no time to lose.

[brokensymmetry]

1. Essential reading!

Kicked, nominated - if I could, I'd shout
it from the rooftops.

Thanks for posting it, 4dsc.

[pstans]

2. Thanks for posting

[elocs]

3. If you want to find out more about Peak Oil than you may ever have

wanted to know check out: http://peakoil.com/forums.html There is lots and lots of information. There are lots of different opinions about how bad it is going to be up to those who believe it will be the end of the world as we know it (teotwawki), but you just need to find a level you believe is possible and separate the wheat from the chaff. Very interesting reading on all kinds of subjects.

[4dsc]

4. I like this quote

Addicted to Oil and Cold Soup

"Whether we like it or not," said Bakhtiari in a recent posting, "all developed societies are addicted to crude oil and its myriad derivatives." However, he continues, "Many decision-makers are trying to park 'Peak Oil' in the farthest corner of their minds (praying it will go away), and remain in denial that there is no replacement for oil." Bakhtiari amplified this comment in another discussion:

"Nobody likes the idea of Peak Oil. Firstly, you have the politicians. Naturally, a politician will never say that there is such a thing as Peak Oil. It is suicide to give bad news, so a politician will never do that...Secondly you have the media. The media do not like Peak Oil. Why? There is no sponsorship for Peak Oil. The oil companies do not like Peak Oil because you should not say that your soup is cold; you should always say that it is very hot and very tasty, yes? So nobody wants to hear of this phenomenon of Peak Oil."

Mr Bakhtiari is so right when he says "Nobody likes the idea of Peak Oil".