Mexico's energy problems hurt U.S.(getting closer to peak?)

[4dsc]

http://www.thedesertsun.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060806/COLUMNS03/608060309/1238/business

America's energy doomsday clock could be inching closer to midnight with the news that Mexico's primary oilfield may be ready to crater. If these dire predictions turn out to be correct, such a development could deal a body blow to the United States' desperately needed oil supplies.

With 2006 demand calling for 22 million daily barrels, domestic U.S. supply is down to less than 8 million barrels a day. Of the average daily imports exceeding 12 million barrels, Mexico has been counted on to deliver 20 percent of that amount. In fact, additional offshore discoveries in the Gulf of Mexico were expected to add to that total. However, due to the excessive depth of these reserves, and the prohibitive cost of extraction, Mexico is not capable of pursuing that option at this time.

Compounding this problem, energy experts now believe that the Cantarell Oil complex, which had reached 2.1 million barrels a day two years ago, is now in sharp decline. It could be as low as 520,000 barrels a day by the end of 2008, with further downturns after that.

This unexpected shrinking of the world's second-largest oil complex, which has made up the lion's share of Mexico's production of 2.5 million barrels, jeopardizes about 90 percent of Mexico's exports, most of which are headed for the U.S. Only America's northern neighbor, Canada, which is expanding its oil sands capacity, may be left to make up this shortfall.

[larrysh]

1. This is one reason wife and I are moving to Mexico in 2008........

As a matter of fact, we just got back from spending a week in Ajijic
July 30th thru Aug 4th. Wonderful city on Lake Chapala, 30 minutes
south of Guadalajara. A bit pricey on the housing side (a 2 bedroom, 2 bath home, with a decent size yard, starts at $150,000. Once past that, the cost of living drops quite a bit. The going rate for a maid
(something we could never afford here) is $12.50 per day. A gardener
$15.00 per day. Fresh produce at the market is cheap as you are buying
direct from the farmer. Electricity is subsidized by the government
and is very inexpensive, especially when you consider the climate in Ajijic is cool practically year round. We never once saw an air conditioner, not in the bed and breakfast where we sayed, nor in the houses we went thru to get an idea what is available. Every day we ate our noon meal at an outdoor resturant and it was quite pleasant. Here in Houston you wouldn't eat outdoors at 8pm at night, much less at noon in July. Moving to Mexico requires a couple to prove an income of only $1500.00 per couple or $1,000 if single. Teachers, SSN retirees,
many people on disability can prove that. And, you can work in Mexico as long you kleep a very low profile. We met a number of Americans who own businesses there and have hired other Americans to work for them. You just have to be quiet about it and not make your neighbors mad or they will turn you in and you risk being deported. Anyone seriously
considering leaving the U.S. if Repugs keep the White House in 2008
should consider the Lake Chapala area.....a much slower and more peaceful way of life.....Handwriting is on the wall for oil, gas, and electric bills here for years to come....

[eviltwin2525]

2. We need to connect this with the Saudi report earlier today...

which said their biggest field has seen its production plummet from 5.5 mbpd to just over 3 mbpd. Also the BP alarm that Prudhue Bay would be off-line for at least a week (maybe MUCH longer) due to widespread corrosion found in the main feeder pipeline. People, altogether that's HALF of that 22 mbpd figure! You're not looking at $5 gasoline -- you're looking at $5 and NO gasoline.