NWS Researchers Predict Decades More Of Western Drought

[hatrack]

GRANTS — Between now and 2025 or 2030, dry years will outnumber the wet years sustaining the current drought, said National weather Service Meteorologist Charlie Lilies. This is a foregone conclusion as far as he and other climate researchers are concerned because of the current and projected weather patterns, El Nio and La Nia, in the Pacific Ocean.

"We are in a drought and it will continue for some time," he said. Based on historical relationships including when negative and positive (weather pattern) oscillations overlap, this historical relationship can be used to forecast the future," he said.

From 1946 to 1977, there was a negative weather pattern oscillation in the Pacific which brought about a 30-year drought, Liles said. From 1978 to 1998, there were wet years.

He wondered if this weather pattern would be negative again from 1998 to 2028. The question climate researchers want to know is are we in another 50 year oscillation, he said. "Based on the historical research we would expect from 1998 to about 2025 or 2030 to have drought years outnumbering the wet years.

EDIT

Global warming could very well have an affect on what's happening in New Mexico as well, Liles said. What will happen in New Mexico with a warmer planet? "The growing season will be longer, requiring more water, snow will be at higher elevations, and so there will be less volume and water will evaporate at a faster rate," he said

EDIT

http://www.gallupindependent.com/2006/july/073106drght.html

[eppur_se_muova]

1. Time to say it again ... read Reisner's "Cadillac Desert". nt