11 AM AST 8/1 - TS Chris 100 E Antigua Max Sust. 40 WNW 10 MPH 1009 MB

[hatrack]

000
WTNT33 KNHC 011429
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 AM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

...CHRIS APPROACHING THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS...HAS NOT
STRENGTHENED...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.3 WEST OR ABOUT 100
MILES...160 KM...EAST OF ANTIGUA.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE A MORE
ACCURATE ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF CHRIS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
NEAR 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CHRIS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...17.3 N...60.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

3-Day Cone:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/145031.shtml?3day?large

5-Day Cone:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/145031.shtml?5day?large

[skids]

1. What I want to know...

Is what's that cyclonic motion north of cuba/PR doing? Looks like a big dry area about to suck in a chunk of moisture.

And Chris looks like it got sliced in two with a meat cleaver. This would be so much more exciting if I was a climatologist I imagine.

[hatrack]

2. 2 PM AST 8/1 TS Chris 65 ENE Antigua Max Sust. 40 WNW 10 MPH 1009 MB

000
WTNT33 KNHC 011757
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
200 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

...CHRIS NEARING THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST OR ABOUT 65
MILES...110 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR
OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS APPROACHING CHRIS
AND WILL PROVIDE A MORE ACCURATE ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS TO
NEAR 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH CHRIS.

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...17.6 N...60.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/011757.shtml

[NNadir]

3. Here is what Jeff Masters wrote about this system yesterday:

A tropical wave near 16N 57W, about 300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, continues to be a threat as it moves west-northwest at 15-20 mph. Visible satellite imagery shows a very robust surface circulation, but little thunderstorm activity associated with the wave. Strong upper level winds from the northwest are creating about 20 knots of wind shear over the low, and this is keeping what little thunderstorm activity it has confined to the southeast quadrant. A 5:30 am EDT pass from the QuikSCAT satellite revealed surface winds of about 30 mph in this region. The low is embedded in a large area of dry, dust-laden Saharan air that moving west along with the low, limiting any chance the system has for intensification. In addition, wind shear is increasing in the region just ahead of the low's track, and should be high enough to prevent it from becoming a tropical depression today. The shear may relax down to the 15-20 knot range on Tuesday as the storm passes through the Lesser Antilles Islands near Guadaloupe, but dry air should still be a problem for it then. We still have one model that develops the system into a tropical storm--the GFDL model predicts that the system will hit Puerto Rico as a tropical depression on Wednesday, then intensify into a tropical storm that hits the Dominican Republic on Thursday. None of the other models buy this solution, and neither do I. Wind shear and dry air will probably combine to keep this wave from developing. Even if the wave does develop, a strong upper-level cold low north of the Bahamas will bring very hostile wind shear to any storm that tries to approach the U.S. East Coast through the Bahamas. The only chance the storm appears to have is if it can stay south of the Dominican Republic in the Caribbean Sea.

The Hurricane Hunters are on call this afternoon and tomorrow in case a reconnaissance flight is needed into the system. Let's hope they get to enjoy the beach instead!

It seems that Dr. Masters has spent the last year or so eating his words. He puts the chance of it developing to hurricane strength, today, at 10%.

I look forward to PP's comments.

[skids]

6. Ooh, is that yellow I see on the tracking charts...

Sorry Jeffy-boy. No time to go inhale neurotoxins at the beach for you!

[phantom power]

9. Well, I must admit I've spent the 1st part of this season eating MY words.

Wind shear and dry air have certainly kept storms from forming til now. JM has been right on that count so far. I still say that their models are breaking down, but clearly the new climate has not thrown ALL the rules out the window.

I wonder what the northern hemisphere droughts are doing to this season. Is there more continental dry air available to suck the life out of a hurricane? Do we get to choose between monster hurricane landfalls and crop failure?

[NNadir]

11. I don't think anyone knows what's going to happen.

I can't find a link to it, but if I remember well, somewhere back in 2001 the World Meteorological Organization simply stating that the weather was becoming more extreme.

I don't think, melted glaciers notwithstanding, that all of the events will be unprecedented. Certainly there were unusual hurricanes in historical times. However the frequency of extremes will grow.

I think a case is pretty well established that things are not normal.

[hatrack]

4. 5PM AST 8/1 - Chris Slightly Stronger 55 NE Antigua Max Sust 45 1007 MB

000
WTNT33 KNHC 012042
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
500 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

...CHRIS A LITTLE STRONGER...APPROACHING NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD
ISLANDS...

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

ALSO AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.2 WEST OR ABOUT 55
MILES... 90 KM...NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE STORM WILL BE PASSING
NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45
MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN
STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OBSERVED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...17.7 N...61.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/012042.shtml

[jpak]

5. The NHC has Chris strengthing to near CAT 1 in 72 hours

000
WTNT43 KNHC 012128
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
530 PM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/012128.shtml?

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO ADJUST THE INTENSITY UPWARD
TO 50 KT...BASED ON A 64-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND RECENTLY MEASURED BY
THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS. ALSO...THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 1003 MB. THE FORECAST WIND
SPEEDS HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD SOMEWHAT. ONLY A SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENT TO THE INITIAL AND 12-HOUR FORECAST LOCATIONS IS MADE
USING THE MORE RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA...AND NO CHANGES TO THE
WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/2130Z 18.0N 61.1W 50 KT
12HR VT 02/0600Z 18.5N 62.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 02/1800Z 19.1N 64.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 03/0600Z 19.9N 66.6W 60 KT
48HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 68.7W 60 KT
72HR VT 04/1800Z 21.5N 73.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 05/1800Z 22.5N 77.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 06/1800Z 23.5N 80.5W 65 KT

[hatrack]

7. 8PM AST 8/1 Chris ENE Barbuda Max Sust 60 MPH WNW 10 MPH 1003 MB

000
WTNT33 KNHC 012359
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
800 PM AST TUE AUG 01 2006

...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS FROM CHRIS SPREADING OVER THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...SABA...ST.
EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.6 WEST OR ABOUT 45
MILES...75 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BARBUDA.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER
THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS STILL INVESTIGATING CHRIS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MOST RECENT MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT
WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES
OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...18.3 N...61.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/012359.shtml

5-day cone:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/000542.shtml?5day?large

[hatrack]

8. 5PM AST 8/2 Chris 115 NNE St. Thomas WNW 10 MPH Max Sust 60 1005 MB

000
WTNT33 KNHC 022029
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
500 PM AST WED AUG 02 2006

...CHRIS SLIGHTLY WEAKER...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.3 WEST OR ABOUT 115
MILES...180 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ST. THOMAS.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STRONG RAIN BANDS ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHRIS MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...19.9 N...64.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/022029.shtml

[jpak]

10. Up 2 MB from the last report

:)

[hatrack]

12. 8/3/ 11:00 AST - Chris 125 ESE Grand Turk W. 12 MPH Max Sust. 40 1012 MB

Still hanging in there, and headed right for the Gulf - we'll see if he makes it.

000
WTNT33 KNHC 040248
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
1100 PM AST THU AUG 03 2006

...CHRIS MAINTAINS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS UPGRADED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE TURKS
AND CAICOS...AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AT 1100 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR LONG ISLAND AND THE EXUMAS IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 1100 PM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN
COAST OF HAITI FROM LA MOLE ST. NICOLAS EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI EASTWARD TO SAMANA. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.3 WEST OR ABOUT 125
MILES...200 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK
THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL PASS NORTH OF HISPANIOLA... AND NEAR OR
OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110
KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 5 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...20.8 N...69.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/040248.shtml