Next victim: The Dakotas to experience 100F + temperatures this week.

[NNadir]

Elsewhere, high pressure will begin to build across much of the plains and parts of the Midwest bringing sunny to partly cloudy skies. Afternoon temperatures today will range from the 80s across the Ohio Valley to the middle and upper 90s into the central plains. The high plains will see temperatures into the lower 100s. As we head into the weekend, heat will come to dominate the Plains and Midwest with record setting 100-to-110-degree readings in the Dakotas and Nebraska. The front will languish close to Canadian border. Clusters of thunderstorms, a few severe and with torrential rains will roam from northern Minnesota to Michigan. Also, scattered thunderstorms will pop Saturday through Monday from the Ohio River southward.

This is the Weather Channel forecast for 7/28/06. http://www.weather.com/newscenter/fcstsummary.html?from=wxcenter_news

[mike_c]

1. my friend liberalhistorian accuses me of responsibility....

I'm visiting in Rapid City-- she says I brought the high temps with me. From northern California, where it was 60F on the day I left, LOL.

Needless to say, this norcal acclimatized fellow is DYING of the heat out here!

[Buttercup McToots]

2. Sheeeeesh

My son is headed to Oskash right now for the weekend airshow...
Glad I packed him a hat...

[uppityperson]

5. Oshkosh airshow, how fun

what a great place to go.

[XemaSab]

26. What the hell are you doing THERE?

Do they even HAVE ents there????

[mike_c]

32. LOL-- I was visiting LH and sweating my ass off....

Just pulled back into Nazarath about 20 minutes ago-- luckily I took 20 across from Sac, 'cause there's apparently a fire blocking 299 that I wouldn't have found out about until I got to Redding.

South Dakota was very nice, but VERY HOT, expecially when you're acclimatized to the north coast!

[phantom power]

3. Holy shit, *look* at that map. Holy holy shit.

[NNadir]

4. Worse than expected I think.

The models are breaking down.

[uppityperson]

6. what is this doing to crops, food supply?

[agates]

7. Crops and livestock dying

Small grain harvest here in the Dakotas is a disaster. Ranchers are selling off livestock because they can't find or afford hay. Retail beef prices should drop locally but haven't.

[BadgerKid]

8. livestock exports?

Maybe there isn't a local drop because the beef is going abroad? I thought Japan was accepting beef again.

[kestrel91316]

10. You get one guess.

[NickB79]

15. My dad's corn and soybeans are dying in central Minnesota

It hasn't been this bad since 1988, and if anyone remembers the drought of '88, that means a lot. That was the year many small family farmers lost their farms and Farm-Aid was launched.

This is really, really bad for US crop production.

[NNadir]

30. What's the temperature up there today?

[hankthecrank]

9. Before we get in a panic read thru crop and beef reports

I'm not going to do it because its like reading tax info booklets

There is good carry over from last year crops

I travel thru most of those areas

Crops look good and livestock good shape too, some areas that where dry are just a little more dry.

Things could change as the summer goes on.

Now if the future models are right then the drought map will stay like it is now

Let stop building on crop land. Once its gone can not be put back.

We have farmers right here on this board if they get in a panic then the show is over

Guess those Mac Mansion jerks can help out Yeah right!!!!

[kestrel91316]

11. Ok, dear optimist - so what happens when we get two or three or a

dozen years in a row like this in our breadbasket???

"Let stop building on crop land. Once its gone can not be put back." ............ Might want to say a word to the major housebuilding corporations and their Republican shareholders/officers about this. They apparently either don't know or don't care.

[hankthecrank]

13. I did say that what future models I've seen match the Drought map

So there will be less rain in the future

With the oceans fished out and lakes fished out there are very little places to get food to replace what is being lost. But we are far from eating grain dust or paper like the people in Moscow did during World War II.

We still waste more than we need too. We also can go lower on the food chain and eat the grain ourselves. Not feed it thru cattle first. Some parts of the country the only way to harvest what is there is thru grazing cattle. They just won't be fatten up with grain.

But if the future models are right and it starts to heat more and rain less than we will get to a point of less food than people need.

[kestrel91316]

18. I'm a little concerned that, as grains and other staple crops get scarcer,

we Americans will not be able to compete price-wise with other, wealthier, non-American buyers. And we KNOW that producers in the US will sell to the highest bidder because they are all major multinational corporations with no particular loyalty to America. We could become like the poor folks in third-world countries, unable to afford to buy for themselves the crops they produce for export, and because of their increasingly urbanized lifestyles, unable to produce their own personal food anymore.

[Dead_Parrot]

25. I'm sure the neocons could think of something.

Probably along the lines of "give us your food or we'll nuke your cities".

(I hope I'm joking, but it's difficult to tell these days)

[NNadir]

12. With due respect to your comments on McMansions and farmland,

here is what I get when I google "crop reports"

Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.28 billion bushels. This is up 1 percent from last month but 15 percent below 2005. The U.S. yield is forecast at 41.1 bushels per acre, up 0.6 bushel from last month but down 3.3 bushels from last year. Area harvested for grain totals 31.1 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report released on June 30, 2006, but down 8 percent from last year.
Hard Red Winter, at 660 million bushels, is up less than 1 percent from a month ago. Soft Red Winter, at 375 million bushels, is up 5 percent from the last forecast. White Winter is down 1 percent from last month and now totals 245 million bushels. Of this total, 19.9 million bushels are Hard White and 225 million bushels are Soft White.
Durum wheat production is forecast at 60.4 million bushels, down 40 percent from 2005. Area harvested for grain totals 1.82 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report released on June 30, 2006 but down 33 percent from last year. The U.S. yield is forecast at 33.1 bushels per acre, 4.1 bushels less than last year. If realized this will be the lowest harvested area since 1961 and the lowest production since 1988. Other Spring wheat production is forecast at 465 million bushels, down 8 percent from 2005. Area harvested for grain totals 14.2 million acres, unchanged from the Acreage report released on June 30, 2006. The U.S. yield is forecast at 32.9 bushels per acre, 4.2 bushels less than last year. Of the total production,
425 million bushels are Hard Red Spring wheat, down 9 percent from last season...

http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/reports/nassr/field/pcp-bb/2006/

The bold is mine. You unquestionably know far more about farming than I can ever hope to know. On the other hand, I am not relieved by your consoling words. I'm sorry but when I see words like "lowest production" I am concerned.

Of course, we are talking about data accumulated before the latest round of heat.

Panic is never wise, but we really need to bring home the magnitude of the problem. The situation is partially retrievable perhaps, but there is no question that it is an international emergency.

The disappearance of farmland is of course tragic but there are more means for it to disappear than through the building of McMansions. This is historically obviated by reading the history of the 1930's. My thing is a concern for the atmosphere, a concern I've had for some decades now. Whatever role the land plays is certainly matched by the atmosphere.

[hankthecrank]

14. I agree with your post

If we get even more spikes in the amounts of heat followed by less rain we will be in a pickle. So every acre is needed for farming. Not Mac Mansion or golf courses.

The two charts of people need for food and amount produced is still good. The lines on the two charts are not headed in good directions.

Long time ago I thought that I could by looking at all the reports tell which way the price was going to go for grains. Not

It is very hard to tell how much grain is going to raised every year. This was before you add changes in weather.

We have had post of sell off of cattle and low yields but it doesn't match what I see and I travel most of the map. Along with the yield per year you also have to look at the carry over. Now if the future for cast of chang coming hold true we are going to get amount produced and the amount consumed are in negative numbers.

[Dead_Parrot]

17. Durum wheat production is... down 40 percent from 2005

:scared:
Loosing Banana Daiquiris is one thing (sounds more like Mint Julep weather anyway) but without lasagne the whole fabric of society will unravel...

As an aside, is there anywhere getting a normal harvest? we seem to be loosing our ability to grow staple foods in bulk, which could be troublesome.

[NNadir]

19. You of course have nothing to worry about.

You have sheep. I'm sure there must be a way to make both daiquiris and lasagna out of sheep.

Of course we have sheep here but we don't rely on them to eat since there is broad confusion between sheep and voters.

[Dead_Parrot]

20. Well, if it's possible, we'll be the first to find out.

As for sheep vs voters, that brings nicely back to Soylent Green.

Again.

Funny how it keeps popping up...

[NNadir]

21. Well, if I ever get to New Zealand, maybe we can visit a pub and watch

how they make the Sheep daiquiris.

That will be a blender to remember.

[Dead_Parrot]

22. The internet nevers fails to amaze me.

I wonder if they would consider a franchise?

http://www.angelfire.com/weird/sheeplaunchers.moved-to-lid-hash/

This Week's Recipe:
Sheep Smoothie
Good Day. Now, today, from our kitchen, we
have the best recipe available anywhere.
Let's get started. Are you tired of having to throw
out your dead sheep? If so, your troubles
are over. After you launch your sheep,go find it
and carry it back home. Shearing the sheep is
optional. If you want a hairy smoothie, do not
shear the sheep. If you want a smooth smoothie,
shear it. Next, stuff the sheep into a strong
blender. Add the following ingredients:

Add 1 Cup of Milk
Add 2 Tbl. Spoons of Olive oil.
Add 2/3 Cups of Codliver Oil
Blend until smooth. Enjoy!

[NNadir]

23. Famine? Who's worried about famine with such wonderful fare?

[Dead_Parrot]

24. I guess the sheep might be... :-) nt

[jpak]

29. 2004 and 2005 were record ag production years

http://www.stopsoybeanrust.com/viewStory.asp?StoryID=506

http://www.axcessnews.com/business_081505.shtml

Aug 15, 2005 (AXcess News) Springfield IL - The USDA's August forecast of the 2005 U.S. corn and soybean crops were near the expected levels, but corn prices declined on prospects of adequate stocks. Soybean stocks are expected to be tighter and there continues to be more uncertainty about the actual size of the soybean crop.

At 10.35 billion bushels, the 2005 U.S. corn crop is projected to be 1.457 billion bushels smaller than the record crop of 2004, but marginally larger than the average pre-report guess. The national average yield is projected at a below-trend value of 139.2 bushels, down from the record yield of 160.4 bushels in 2004. The largest yield declines are expected in Illinois (down 55 bushels) and Missouri (down 63 bushels). With September 1, 2005 stocks of corn projected at 2.11 billion bushels, the supply of corn for the 2005-06 marketing year is projected at 12.47 billion bushels, 305 million less than the record supplies of a year ago.


and other areas of the country did quite well too...

VIRGINIA'S CROPS THRIVE UNDER WET WEATHER CONDITIONS IN 2004

http://www.vdacs.virginia.gov/news/releases-b/011205usda-va.html

The 2004 growing season started off warmer than normal. However, by mid-August hurricanes Bonnie and Charley left Virginia wet and cold. Temperatures quickly recovered to near normal, but heavy rains persisted throughout the rest of the growing season. Virginia's corn, soybean, cotton, and tobacco thrived crops under the wet weather patterns. Near record- breaking corn and record soybean yields have left many farmers looking for storage facilities, according to the Virginia Agricultural Statistics Service's year end report.

Virginia's corn producers harvested an average of 145 bushels per acre for grain this season, 30 bushels higher than the previous year and the second highest yield on record. Corn for grain production is estimated at 52.2 million bushels, up 38 percent from the 2003 production. Corn silage production at 2.7 million tons, was up 14 percent from last year. Acres harvested for silage totaled 135,000, with a yield of 20.0 tons per acre.

Soybean yields averaged a record 39.0 bushels per acre from 530,000 acres. Soybean production is estimated at 20.7 million bushels, 27 percent above the 2003 production.

Cotton production is estimated at 150,000 bales, up 26 percent from last year. The cotton yield for 2004 averaged 889 pounds per acre, up 215 pounds per acre from 2003's 674 pound average.

<more>

I do not doubt for a moment that global warming will affect US crop production.

Some areas will suffer while others will thrive.

But cherry picking weather and crop production data to "prove" something is wrong.

It's as stupid as pointing to the record crop years of 2004 and 2005 and saying there's nothing to worry about.

2005 was also a record hurricane year - we were into the G storm by this time last year with two CAT-4 storms recorded in July (first time ever).

How many hurricanes this year???? Zero, and only 2 weak tropical storms so far.

What does that prove????

Not a fucking thing.

Climate is a long term phenomenon. It will take many years or decades for the effect of global warming on US agricultural production to emerge.

Oil and gas prices and availability will have a greater impact on US ag production in the near term than inter-annual variation in weather patterns resulting from global warming.

...and nuclear power will not save us in THAT department...

Just sayin'

[hankthecrank]

33. Wheat is a bad choice too prove drought for another reason

Wheat is mostly farmed where the land gets its moisture during fall and winter and early spring. When it headed out and starting to dry out the land is also getting to dry season. When the land is at it hot part of the season and dry the wheat is already done.

Some area it takes two years for it to build up enough moisture. So wheat is only farmed every other year.

[NickB79]

16. Looks can be decieving

For example, soybeans look wonderful right now from a distance, even in areas of severe drought. The problem is that they are aborting their beans and dropping the pods to conserve water. Up close, you find very sparse bean production on the individual plants.

Similarly, the corn crops look decent judging by leaf conditions, but the drought hitting during tassling and early cob production will seriously impact pollination and kernel production as the summer progresses.

Here in Minnesota, we aren't expected to recieve any substantial rainfall until Mid-August, while at the same time enduring 100F weather. This is a horrible combination for farmers here.

[DemsRBetterLovers]

27. So begins the desertification of the widwest...

Fertile grasslands are just a step towards desertification. Remember, the plains used to be covered with trees at one time.

[NNadir]

28. Pierre, South Dakota, current temperature, 110F

From the Weather Channel

Here's the heat advisory:

A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING.

VERY HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REACH OR EXCEED 110 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS. EVEN THOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE...THE HEAT INDEX IS STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 105 DEGREES OR HIGHER FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON..

HIGH HEAT INDICES WILL BRING VERY UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. AVOID PROLONGED WORK OUTSIDE OR IN A POORLY VENTILATED AREA. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS.

Here's the grassland fire advisory:

...EXTREME FIRE DANGER... THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL REACH THE EXTREME CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES FROM 101 TO 109 DEGREES... AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES FROM 55 TO 65 DEGREES...WILL PRODUCE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW...EXTREME.

Outlook for tomorrow...extreme.

There's nothing more to say that that.

[Odin2005]

31. Fargo's supposed to hit 103 tommorow.

We haven't had a summer like this since '88. before this summer the last time we hit 100 was in '96.

The climate is going insane.

[mainegreen]

34. Ummmmm. K. That weather map is rather .... extreme.

I don't think I've ever seen such a big blob of '100s' on a weather map before.
This is one of those times I'm glad I live 1/8th of a mile away from very, very cold north atlantic ocean water. The temperature in my city where I am is often 15-20 degrees colder than even the next town inland when its that hot.

[eppur_se_muova]

35. Then it moves east ... Toledo is predicted to have highs of 99, 98, 96

Mon, Tue, and Wed.

[NNadir]

36. It's coming here to New Jersey, this "normal fluctuation."

At least the hurricanes aren't happening at the same rate as last year, knock on plywood.

The lack of hurricanes obviously disproves the thesis that the climate is warming.

[eppur_se_muova]

37. If this were a stock, how many people would be investing?

(Because they just KNOW it's gonna go up a lot more!)

[NNadir]

38. You're right.

It's here right now. I just went outside.

My home office is in my basement, which is naturally cool. (My house is in the shade still, but that is changing as storms destroy my trees this summer.) It is hot out there.