Importing oil in 20 years??

[4dsc]

Think about out it as this author has posted a very interesting question.

http://www.whiskeyandgunpowder.com/Archives/20060426.html

Could the United States be "just like Sweden" and become oil independent within 20 years? The realist, if not the cynic, in me says probably not. And I never said that America even ought to try to go Swedish. The United States is not, after all, Sweden.

But then again, dear readers ("take-away point" here), I have to wonder from where and from whom the United States will be importing oil in 20 years, in any event. We in America might just turn Swedish over the next 20 years without having any choice in the matter.

Back to Depletion

Huh? "Turn Swedish?" What do I mean, bringing up the rather impertinent question of "from where and from whom the United States will be importing oil in 20 years?" Aren't we just going to, as the expression goes, "buy it" from people? Not so fast, pilgrims.

Let me spell it out for you. It all goes back to the geologic concept of depletion, which is not for amateurs, but neither is it some black art of the gray wizard. Let's take a look into the crystal ball of future crude oil production. We can do this with a relatively good sense of mathematical certainty, because 90% of all the oil that will ever be discovered in the crust of the Earth has already been found.

So where will we be importing oil from in 20 years?? DO you get an understanding how depletion is going to effect us all in the near future??

[NNadir]

1. Sweden has done nothing more than make a prediction.

Twenty years ago, Sweden announced it would phase out nuclear power.

Last year it approved an uprate for the Ringhals nuclear station. It still produces almost half of its power by nuclear means.

Talk means nothing.

[4dsc]

2. Its more than what's happening here

At least they are talking about, cannot say that about Americans. Most American's somehow believe for the most part that oil is a finite resource and that our high gas prices are temporary. We are not engaged in a national debate over energy at least in the direction it should be.

[NNadir]

3. If the point is to say that the US is a wasted, dissolute oligarchy,

with a distractable poorly educated public, I'm OK with that.

If on the other hand, the point is that we should make even more infantile pronouncements about the future, I disagree.

The public discourse on energy is increasingly absurd. There is not one country in the West with a public that views the subject through the hard eyes of reality, Sweden included, unless you wish to discuss France. I note that Sweden has not formally announced its intention to abandon the No Nukes promise, although everyone who knows anything about the nature of energy and the environment in Sweden believes this historical committment to be irrelevant.

Almost of all of the sensible approaches to mitigating the castastrophe of over-population/energy/environment are now limited to Asia, where, in fact, the crisis has long been exigent.