Scientists Issue Unprecedented Forecast Of Next Sunspot Cycle

[phantom power]

I'm impressed that they can do this.

The next sunspot cycle will be 30 to 50 percent stronger than the last one, and begin as much as a year late, according to a breakthrough forecast using a computer model of solar dynamics developed by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colo. The research results, funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and NASA, were published on-line on March 3 in the American Geophysical Union journal Geophysical Research Letters.

Scientists now predict that the next cycle, known as Cycle 24, will produce sunspots across an area slightly larger than 2.5 percent of the visible surface of the Sun. The cycle is projected to reach its peak about 2012, one year later than indicated by alternative forecasting methods that rely on statistics.

(...)

The scientists gained additional confidence in the forecast by showing that the newly developed model could simulate the strength of the past eight solar cycles with more than 98 percent accuracy.

"The model has demonstrated the necessary skill to be used as a forecasting tool," says NCAR scientist Mausumi Dikpati, the leader of the forecast team at NCAR's High Altitude Observatory. The team also includes NCAR scientists Peter Gilman and Guiliana de Toma.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/03/060307084500.htm

[mdmc]

1. I think that the Dem party should court NCAR Dads

:kick:

Does this mean that we will have hurricane Alpha, Beta, Kappa, Delta Delta Delta in 2012? Cycle 24:scared:

[phantom power]

2. I think you'll get to see Alpha and friends this year.

Whatever the connection between suspot activity and climate (if any), I would guess it's insignificant compared to runaway GHG and albedo effects here on earth.

[revree]

3. Why does that year 2012 come up an awful lot lately...

in terms of major earth changes? Hmmmm.....

[soothsayer]

4. O those trickster Mayans! Can't wait to see what the Lords of Time

look like (in 2012, the lords of time, who wrote the first Mayan calendar, return). Which Doctor Who will they look like???

[mdmc]

5. witch doctor?

:kick: