Scientific Concern Builds As Arctic Basin Meltdown Accelerates

[hatrack]

WASHINGTON – Alarmed by an accelerating loss of ice in the Arctic Ocean, scientists are striving to understand why the speedup is happening and what it means for mankind. If current trends continue, as seems likely, the sea surrounding the North Pole will be completely free of ice in the summertime within the lifetime of a child born today. The loss could point the way to radical changes in the Earth's climate and weather systems.

Some researchers, such as Ron Lindsay, an Arctic scientist at the University of Washington in Seattle, fear that the polar region already may have passed a "tipping point" from which it can't recover in the foreseeable future. Others, such as Jonathan Overpeck, director of the Institute for the Study of Planet Earth at the University of Arizona in Tucson, think the Arctic ice pack is nearing a point of no return but hasn't reached it yet.

The National Science Foundation, a congressionally chartered agency, announced an urgent research program last month to determine what "these changes mean for both the Arctic and the Earth." "The pace of Arctic change has accelerated," the foundation declared. "Because of the Arctic's pivotal role in the Earth's climate, it is critical – perhaps urgent – that we understand this system in light of abundant evidence that a set of linked and pervasive changes are under way."

The concern has heightened because last summer brought a record low in the size of the northern ice pack. "The degree of retreat was greater than ever before," said Ted Scambos, chief scientist with the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo. Previous lows were set in 2002, 2003 and 2004.

EDIT

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/news/nation/stories/DN-arcticicedog_22nat.ART.State.Bulldog.3e6cb31.html

[acmejack]

1. I think the evidence is conclusive that it is a self feeding phenomenon

Clearly accelerating and gaining in intensity as it does so. We have passed the point of no return already and have doomed ourselves through our willful disregard.

[NNadir]

2. What is really alarming about this alarming alarm is this remark:

"striving to understand why the speedup is happening..."

It would be better if scientists were striving to understand why things are better than they're supposed to be.

If things are getting worse quicker than the already dire model suggested, we're really in for it.

[hatrack]

3. The contrast is quite striking, isn't it?

Soothing, clucking noises from politicians all too ready to assure us that, yes, what we're doing can indeed go on forever, and we'll all get digital cable and plasma-screen televisions and free ponies, too.

And on the other side of the ledger, scientists who are really and truly worried that all their indicators are far worse than worst-case projections, but whose scientific discipline (in nearly all cases) doesn't allow for much rooftop-shouting. You have to kind of read between their lines to catch the desperation.

[phantom power]

5. My favorite climatologist statement...

"I don't mean to be alarmist, but I'm alarmed."

And that was back in the days of innocence, circa 2001.

[Boomer]

4. In a matter of just a few years...

I've noticed that in a matter of just a few years, the scientists derided for being doomsayers and alarmists have turned out to be too optimistic. Invariably, every adjustment to predictions has been to admit the changes are more drastic and occurring much sooner than anyone predicted, even the most pessimistic.

Can we say "uh oh."

[phantom power]

7. I wonder what the climatologists predict amongst themselves, in private.

How long would they say the ice is going to last, if you got a few beers in them? What visions do they have, when they lie awake at 3am?

[htuttle]

6. If the northern ice cap melts within the next 50 years

...then it's almost certain that almost all of the Greenland ice cap will melt as well. That means a sea level rise of 20+ feet. That means that almost EVERY COASTAL CITY ON EARTH will be under water (some more than others). Several entire nations might disapear (Bangladesh for one, several island nations for another). New Orleans will be only the first city lost to global warming -- there will be many, many others.

We've been warned.

[Odin2005]

8. The loss of the Arctic sea ice...

...will cause the climatelogical equator to shift northward to an average latatude of 10 to 15 degrees north. It is currently at 5 degrees north as a result of the Antarctic continental ice sheet having more climatological influence than the comparatively small region of permanent arctic sea ice. With the arctic sea ice gone the influence of Antartica will shift the climatological equator northward. This will have a huge affect on the tropics; the Southern tropics will become much drier and the Northern tropics and subtropics will become much wetter. Arabia, Pakistan and the Sahara will bloom, while Indonesia, southern Aftrica, Northeastern Australia, and sections of the Amazon will wither. It'll be a absolute disaster for the 3rd world.

:cry:

[MrMonk]

9. "Climatological equator"

Could you explain this concept? I had thought that the only equator was the one defined as 0 degrees.

[htuttle]

10. I think it's also called the "Zone of Intertropical Convergence"

In the northern hemisphere, winds spin one direction, in the southern hemisphere, winds spin the other direction. The north and south prevailing winds meet in the middle at the equator, and mix (and neutralize each other, I suppose). It creates the 'doldrums' you hear sailors speak of, and prevents weather from crossing from one hemisphere to the other.

What the other poster is suggesting, I think, is that the loss of the Arctic ice cap will cause this zone between the trade winds at the equator to get larger.

on edit:

Upon re-reading the other post, I think they are suggesting that the intertropical convergence will shift north of the equator, not get larger.

Here's an interesting page of class notes on atmospheric circulation that has lots of maps about this:
http://www.ux1.eiu.edu/~cfjps/1400/circulation.html

[Odin2005]

11. Yep.

It's the zone of low pressure where the North and South trade winds meet and give the constant hight rainfall on the equator and it's seasonal movement causes the wet season/dry season cycle further from the equator.