It's possible that Kiribati has failed to make much of an impression on many people. The most easterly island in the world, it reached its apotheosis in popular recognition at the start of this millennium, when wealthy travellers flocked there in order to see the first sun rise on a new century. The chances are the island will fail to make any impression by 2100. For Kiribati (pronounced Kiri-bas) is one of a group of islands at risk of disappearing beneath the waves over the coming decades as a direct result of dramatic climate change - and the local people are facing a hard battle to have their concerns heard on a world stage.
Kiribati won't be the first casualty of global warming. One islet, Tebua Tarawa, has already disappeared; another, Tepuka Savilivili, no longer has any coconut trees.
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But, the threat of the advancing sea isn't just about being submerged. More immediately, the salt water is seeping into the soil, making it increasingly difficult for the islanders to grow crops. (Farmers have to use tin containers, filled with compost, instead.) In 2002, Tuvalu was hit by a record high tide, which covered much of the island and flooded its airport. The situation is deteriorating rapidly.
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The CHC (ed. - Cooler Heads Coalition) argues that adopting Kyoto would damage America's interests, and that the effects about which Aosis have raised the alarm aren't all visible - and those which are can be the reverse of expectations. "New research has shown that sea level
has fallen by about 2.5 inches in the last 2 or 3 years," it argues on its website, "an apparently dramatic reversal from the 1.5 inch per year rise experienced throughout the earlier 1990s." It does somewhat spoil its triumphal tone by adding that: "Any potential global warming will actually cause sea levels to drop in the short term." Which surely means that the falling sea levels it reports confirm that global warming is happening. But the undated page of the CHC's website doesn't identify the source of its research. And studies released by the South Pacific Sea Level and Climate Monitoring Project in October 2000 have contradicted this analysis, suggesting instead that while sea levels around Tuvalu dropped in the mid-1990s, they began climbing again in 1998, and have continued to do so. The best studies suggest that global sea levels are rising by between 1mm and 2mm per year. Which doesn't sound significant, until the Monitoring Project scientists point out that "this rate of change is about 10 times more rapid than the average over the previous 3000 years, as determined from the geological record".
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Link to Independent