Cross link: Tropical Storm Zeta.

[NNadir]

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=5715775&mesg_id=5715804

Has anyone noticed a change in the weather?

[hatrack]

1. "Although the atmosphere seems to want to develop t. storms ad nauseum" .

NHC Update - 5:00 PM AST

000
WTNT45 KNHC 302034
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST FRI DEC 30 2005

DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 18Z WERE T3.0...OR 45 KT...FROM TAFB AND
SAB...WHILE AFWA GAVE ZETA A SUBTROPICAL T2.5 CLASSIFICATION.
BASED ON THESE CLASSIFICATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT
45 KT. THE WELL-DEFINED BANDING STRUCTURES SEEN THIS MORNING HAVE
ALREADY BECOME RAGGED...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
WESTERLIES BEGINNING TO IMPINGE ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION. WHILE THERE COULD BE BRIEF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
DURING TONIGHT'S CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM...STRONG WESTERLIES ARE NOT FAR
FROM THE CYCLONE AND SHOULD OVERTAKE ZETA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/6. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST REASONING. ZETA IS STILL MOVING AROUND A MID-LEVEL LOW TO
ITS SOUTHWEST...BUT THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE
WESTERLIES MOVE IN DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. ASSUMING ZETA
WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN SHEAR...IT SHOULD THEN TURN
WESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND
OF THE MEDIUM AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS...AND THE 12Z GFDL.

THE HISTORICAL RECORD SHOWS THAT ALICE OFFICIALLY BECAME A TROPICAL
STORM AT 1200 UTC 30 DECEMBER 1954. MY WORKING BEST TRACK FOR ZETA
CURRENTLY SHOWS STORM STATUS BEGINNING AT 1200 UTC THIS MORNING...
WHICH TENTATIVELY ALLOWS ZETA TO TIE ALICE FOR THE LATEST FORMING
TROPICAL STORM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. HOWEVER...A CASE CAN BE MADE
FOR CONSIDERING ZETA A TROPICAL STORM AS EARLY AS 0600 UTC THIS
MORNING. WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE FINAL ANALYSIS OF ZETA'S TRACK
TO SEE EXACTLY WHERE ITS FORMATION FALLS RELATIVE TO ALICE'S.

ALTHOUGH THE ATMOSPHERE SEEMS TO WANT TO DEVELOP TROPICAL STORMS AD
NAUSEAM...THE CALENDAR WILL SHORTLY PUT AN END TO THE USE OF THE
GREEK ALPHABET TO NAME THEM.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 25.3N 37.3W 45 KT
12HR VT 31/0600Z 25.6N 38.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 31/1800Z 25.8N 39.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 01/0600Z 26.0N 40.4W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
48HR VT 01/1800Z 26.0N 42.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED


Unbelievable. Just fucking unbelievable.

[NNadir]

2. Yeah. I hate such a mean spirited atmosphere.

It should be subject to fines and imprisonment for its disregard of ethics and grace.

In two days we get to return to hurricanes with human names. I am so thrilled.

[hatrack]

3. Alberto - is he the first up?

I think that was on the GD thread.

[NNadir]

4. I suspect it may not be long before we find out.

[hatrack]

5. Shit, it's starting to look like "Oryx and Crake"

The afternoon tornado, summer resorts on Hudson Bay, etc. :eyes:

[Dogmudgeon]

6. Meanwhile, Europe is having an ass-bitingly cold Winter

And here's the kicker -- while most of us are now aware that a decrease in the thermohaline activity in the North Atlantic would reduce temperatures in the British Isles and Scandinavia, the main area of abnormally cold air runs from Iberia through South and Central Europe into Central Asia. There was snow in Lebanon last week.

I've also read in a couple of weather blogs that the Arctic, which was about 10F above normal this past Summer, is now about as far below normal. Once the jet stream system moves a bit, we in the States should get a taste of this.

--p!

[Boomer]

8. Start of a new Ice Age, anyone?

Guess the only way we'll know for sure is if Spring doesn't arrive this year.

[Dogmudgeon]

11. Actually, this is a real anomaly

In a few years, we might look at it as something we could have expected, but not now.

The next big indicator I'm keeping watching for is the formation of cyclonic storms in the Arctic Ocean during the Summer. In other words -- "tropical" storms and hurricanes. It's possible, and smallish cyclonic storms have been recorded in the area, but no big warm-core storms.

Inuit and Chukchi legends speak of strange spirit-posessed weather during periods of climate change (usually spoken of as wars of the gods and other mystical events), including "Dancers" (sometimes called "Katchinas", though I think "Katchina" is a word from Navajo/Diné), which fit the description of tornadoes that form during blizzards. Since the Siberian/Alaskan peoples had several origins and have splintered into dozens of smaller groups, these stories all have different details, and commonalities among them may go back thousands of years.

Since Central Asia is also one of those places that feels the brunt of climate change, and has been contiuously inhabited since shortly after the first human diaspora took early Homo sapiens out of Africa, it might be interesting to check some of their legends -- before the great Christian/Islamic Crusade/Jihad kills all the people off who live there.

When the actual cooling phase occurs, I expect it will involve major changes in the atmosphere over the Arctic. Perhaps there will be a super-warm Summer that lasts long into the Winter -- a massive "air temperature inversion", as meteorologists call the phenomenon. When this inversion breaks down, a lot of water vapor may need to go somewhere very fast, and lines of blizzards could take care of that problem over the course of a couple weeks. It won't be The Day After Tomorrow, but the storms could lay down an ice pack that doesn't melt during the next Spring and Summer, setting the stage for a new era of ice-building.

--p!

[Boomer]

12. Fascinating to speculate

Your comments about the human diaspora and its encounter with climate change comes at the same time that I've been reading about those very events on The Genographic Project web site (https://www3.nationalgeographic.com/genographic/index.html). My own DNA sample is winging its way to the their labs so I can trace my own deep ancestral lineage in that disaspora.

The web site makes several references to origin myths and the clues they provide about encounters with glaciers and other climate conditions at the time of the first settling of the Americas.

However, there's a limit to how much these stories can illuminate our own fate since we seem to have tilted the CO2 meter waaaay beyond that experienced by homo sapiens. We're treading new territory for our species, reaching back some 650,000 million years into the past.

Ah, brave new world....

[phantom power]

7. Yesterday it was 79F in Phoenix. WTF?

A normal daytime high for January is more like 65F.

[phantom power]

9. Hurricane Zeta?

Not only is Zeta still alive, it might become a hurriane. In January.

The Hurricane Season of 2005 refuses to quit. Tropical Storm Zeta has not changed much since yesterday, but the forecast for its future has changed considerably. Zeta may become a hurricane by tomorrow. The upper-level trough approaching Zeta is splitting in two, leaving a area of low wind shear just in front of the storm. Wind shear analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that Zeta's westward motion is carrying the storm into an area of low wind shear less than 10 knots, and this reduced wind shear has the potential to allow Zeta to intensify into a hurricane, something the GFDL model has been consistently predicting for three days.

The reduced wind shear also means that Zeta will hang around much longer than previously thought. A trough of low pressure just to Zeta's west is expected to turn the storm northwards tomorrow, but this trough will probably not be strong enough to completely recurve the storm. Zeta will have to wait for the next trough late in the week before finally recurving and dissipating. During that period, Zeta may reach hurricane intensity for a day or so before increasing shear knocks it back down to a tropical storm.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=274&tstamp=200601

[Dead_Parrot]

10. That's some fucked up weather. nt.