NHC - "Hurricane Epsilon Refuses To Weaken - Future Intensity Uncertain"

[hatrack]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 051434
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST MON DEC 05 2005

...HURRICANE EPSILON REFUSES TO WEAKEN...FUTURE INTENSITY
UNCERTAIN...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 33.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 35.1 WEST OR ABOUT 545
MILES... 880 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

EPSILON IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND A
TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST IS LIKELY IN A DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...33.6 N... 35.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
5 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/051434.shtml

Graphics: It's heading south. Great.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/150615.shtml?3day

[htuttle]

1. And Earth's 'Great White Spot' is born!

With warm enough oceans, do you suppose a permanent hurricane, bouncing around the Atlantic like a billiard ball, is possible? I asked that a few months ago, and was assured that it wasn't possible. Maybe it is after all!

[graywarrior]

2. It's CRAZY, man!

http://vortex.plymouth.edu/hur_dir/hur_pos_nt4.html

[Boomer]

3. "FUTURE INTENSITY UNCERTAIN"

You could say that again.

Epsilon is like Jason from "Halloween" -- no matter how many times he falls to the ground, he always gets back up... and kills something.

All bets are off for this hurricane.

[shraby]

4. When is the last time a hurricane headed south?

That really looks weird.

[Dogmudgeon]

5. It's pretty common

But nothing is common after December 1st when it comes to Hurricanes.

We could theoretically have three or four more of these things, too.

Where I live -- right above Philly -- a small snowstorm has just started. We're supposed to get anywhere from one to eight inches, depending on the forecast you listen to. Why the discrepancy? Because the Atlantic Ocean is still relatively very warm; the warmer the climate, the more chaotic the weather. So we could be snowed in, or just get a little bit more for Santa Claus. :)

This Christmas, it could be -20F with three feet of snow on the ground; next Christmas, it could be 92F with afternoon thunderstorms and a cat-4 hurricane in the Florida Keys. We should expect this kind of thing in the years ahead, until a climatic mode change has stabilized -- probably toward a mini-ice-age, though the eventual state is anyone's guess at this point.

--p!

[Boomer]

6. In case you were wondering, Epsilon isn't dead yet...

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Epsilon has now remained a hurricane for five days, making it the longest lived December hurricane on record. The previous record was just over four days, set by an unnamed 1887 hurricane. Epsilon has been a hurricane long enough to push the Hurricane Season of 2005 into sixth place for the most number of days a hurricane has been present--50.25 days. The record is 1893, with 72 days. If Epsilon can hang around until the 4 pm advisory on Friday, 2005 will tie 1995 for the second highest number of days with a named storm in the Atlantic, 120.5. The record is 136 named storm days in 1933. Not bad for a storm that was expected to be a remnant low four days ago, according to the first NHC forecast predicting its demise!

Epsilon is not done with us yet--the satellite presentation looks excellent, and there is still no sign that the strong westerly winds associated with a trough just to the cyclone's west are beginning to shear the storm apart. This is expected to happen on Thursday and Friday, but we've heard that before! The current best guess is that Epsilon will be destroyed by wind shear from the trough by Saturday. However, several models are indicating that Epsilon may reform into an extratropical low pressure system west of the Azores Islands early next week, then drift southwestward and gradually acquire tropical characteristics, potentially becoming a tropical storm again. There is also a slight chance a tropical storm could form in the ocean waters just north of Panama next week. Overall, I estimate that there is a 30% chance we'll be watching an Atlantic tropical storm at this time next week, either Epsilon or Zeta.

[NNadir]

7. That is in-fucking-credible.

[Dead_Parrot]

8. Personally, I'm glad...

... that we don't actually know that adding CO2 to the atmosphere may contribute to global warming that may be happening and if so may cause a stronger hurricane season. I mean, if was really true - like things in the bible are - then we'd have to do something about it...

I'm even more glad I live 7,000 miles away. :P

[Boomer]

9. Going, going.... gone?

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Epsilon is finally dying. Fifty knots of wind shear have ripped away Epsilon's deep convection, and Epsilon is now just a swirl of low clouds. Today will be the final day of Epsilon's life, and likely the final day of the Hurricane Season of 2005. There is still a possibility that an extratropical low expected to form from Epsilon's remnants and drift slowly westward may be able to generate into Tropical Storm Zeta by the middle of next week, but I give this only a 30% chance of happening. Water temperatures are a cool 22-23C in the region. While both Delta and Epsilon did form from similar extratropical lows in the same region, the computer models are predicting that the new storm will have a more limited amount of time to develop (four days) before it gets recurved northeastward by a trough of low pressure. This probably is not enough time for it to make the transition to a tropical storm.

Jeff Masters

[phantom power]

10. Huh. "Only" 30% chance of another. In mid-December.

I say we get to meet Zeta before it's all over.