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Over the past century, dams made in the West have become more mismatched with their ambient climate. The Hoover Dam, for instance, was designed based on a 30-year period that had markedly higher precipitation levels than today. As a result of a decade of drought, the dam is now operating at only 30 percent of its capacity, said Matthews, and new mechanisms have been added to cope with the lower water levels. When infrastructure plans are based on a set climate scenario, rather than a flexible one, it can be very costly in both human and economic terms, especially in the developing world, the paper argues.
Less-developed areas, particularly parts of East and South Asia, are now entering a period of rapid hydro infrastructure development. Since water managers are largely following the West's rigid planning model, these countries are going to have difficulty adapting to changes in water availability.
According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 40 percent of all development investments are at risk due to climate change, write authors in the PLoS paper. If a hydropower project fails to fulfill expectations due to the effects of climate change, governments could struggle to pay back loans from development investors.
Masses of people could also face prolonged brownouts. Matthews saw this take place in Nepal, where low water levels rendered a brand-new dam project ineffective and cut off the water supply farther downstream. "
are likely to make themselves poorer and make species and ecosystems decline at the same time, and I think that's a huge crisis," said Matthews. The solution is to build new water infrastructure in stages, say the authors of the PLoS paper. Using that approach, managers can adjust their strategy as climate patterns become clearer. Another step is to integrate ecosystems into infrastructure development -- by "building with nature" rather than on top of it, using a system that will be more adaptive.
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http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=worlds-dams-unprepared-for-climate-change