It's time to understand the potential outcomes of the ongoing crisis at the Fukushima nuclear plant. We are now seeing credible news reports and other evidence that there has been a breach of the containment vessel inside #2 and possibly other reactors. Nuclear fuel rods containing many kilograms of enriched uranium (and possibly mixed plutonium) have now burned off their protective cladding and in at least one case are reported to have melted through the steel containment and are pooling at the base of what's left of the reactor building. See,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/mar/29/japan-lost-race-save-nuclear-reactor Highly radioactive water injected at the top of the compromised pressure vessels continues to leak out, leading some experts to conclude that molten core material has holed the base of the vessel.
The worst-case scenario is that exposed molten mass, which is at least 3000 degrees C (the melting point of uranium oxide), will continue to burn through the concrete base of the containment building. If that happens, it would quickly begin to penetrate the earth, immediately below which is the water table, the plant having been sited on the edge of the Pacific Ocean.
If . . . and this only if, meltdown reaches that stage, most experts state that result of the molten rods reaching the water table below will likely be the release of a large plume of radioactive steam and particles that if uncontained would shoot upwards into the atmosphere, continuing to disperse radioactive vapor and materials over a large area until it is either cools sufficiently or is successfully capped and entombed. The initial release may appear similar to the underwater volcanic eruption pictured below, but observers certainly would not want to be so close - which is exactly the problem. The engineering and practical challenges of capping and entombing such a release are enormous and the outcome uncertain.
Before the melt pit could be capped and contained (assuming that can be done in any reasonable time while a column of high-pressure radiation is still boiling upwards), however, it will likely emit a large amount of particles of molten sand (silicate) and other materials. Seawater, itself, when vaporized, also contains minerals such as potassium which are readily absorbed into the human body. The health effects of breathing or ingesting particles put up by this plume will be extremely serious.
Now, check out this Dept of Energy publication about the long-term human health effects of a radioactive plume that disperses radioactive silicate particles (sand) containing trace potassium (K, that gets absorbed into the body) over a wide area. With Fukushima, we're talking about dispersion over one of the most densely populated areas in the world, and one which the Japanese people depend upon for food production:
http://www.osti.gov/energycitations/product.biblio.jsp?...Title Effect of Potassium on Uptake of 137Cs in Food Crops Grown on Coral Soils: Annual Crops at Bikini Atoll
Creator/Author Stone, E R ; Robinson, W
Publication Date 2002 Feb 01
OSTI Identifier OSTI ID: 15002342
Report Number(s) UCRL-LR-147596
DOE Contract Number W-7405-ENG-48
Other Number(s) TRN: US200410%%78
Resource Type Technical Report
Resource Relation Other Information: PBD: 1 Feb 2002
Research Org Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (US)
Sponsoring Org US Department of Energy (US)
Subject 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY; AMERICIUM 241; ANIMALS; CESIUM 137; CLAYS; CORALS; CROPS; FALLOUT; FOOD; FOOD CHAINS; MARSHALL ISLANDS; NUTRIENTS; PLUMES; POTASSIUM; RADIOACTIVITY; SILICATES; SOILS; STRONTIUM 90; THERMONUCLEAR DEVICES
Description/Abstract In 1954 a radioactive plume from the thermonuclear device code named BRAVO contaminated the principal residential islands, Eneu and Bikini, of Bikini Atoll (11{sup o} 36 minutes N; 165{sup o} 22 minutes E), now part of the Republic of the Marshall Islands. The resulting soil radioactivity diminished greatly over the three decades before the studies discussed below began. By that time the shorter-lived isotopes had all but disappeared, but strontium-90 ({sup 90}Sr), and cesium-137, ({sup 137}Cs) were reduced by only one half-life. Minute amounts of the long-lived isotopes, plutonium-239+240 ({sup 239+240}Pu) and americium-241 ({sup 241}Am), were present in soil, but were found to be inconsequential in the food chain of humans and land animals. Rather, extensive studies demonstrated that the major concern for human health was {sup 137}Cs in the terrestrial food chain (Robison et al., 1983; Robison et al., 1997). The following papers document results from several studies between 1986 and 1997 aimed at minimizing the {sup 137}Cs content of annual food crops. The existing literature on radiocesium in soils and plant uptake is largely a consequence of two events: the worldwide fallout of 1952-58, and the fallout from Chernobyl. The resulting studies have, for the most part, dealt either with soils containing some amount of silicate clays and often with appreciable K, or with the short-term development of plants in nutrient cultures.
Country of Publication United States
Language English
Format Medium: ED; Size: PDF-FILE: 69 ; SIZE: 1.7 MBYTES pages
System Entry Date 2008 Feb 12
While you're at it, you might also want to read this publication about the physical properties and the radiological effects of Potassium-40: #
Potassium-40
File Format: PDF/Adobe Acrobat - Quick View
concentration associated with sandy soil particles estimated to be 15 times higher ... What Happens to It in the Body? Potassium-40 can be taken into the body by ... Hence, what is taken in is readily absorbed into the bloodstream and ...
www.ead.anl.gov/pub/doc/potassium.pdf - Similar
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And, this on respirable crystalline silica:
http://www.ashkinlaw.com/silicosis.htmlFinally, a large mass of melt-down material would cause a plume of water vapor mixed with silica and other ground materials, producing a "mushroom cloud" type vapor tower, and resulting fallout in some ways similar to that produced by a weapon detonation. While there would be no huge explosion and "fireball" associated with a nuclear detonation, most of the physical effects of a plume from a meltdown of a large mass of high temperature fissionable materials would be the same.
That characteristics of such a radioactive cloud, according to the Wiki,
"the cloud contains also vaporized, melted and fused soil particles. The distribution of activity through the particles depends on their formation; particles formed by vaporization-condensation have activity evenly distributed through volume as the air-burst ones, larger molten particles have the fission products diffused through the outer layers, and fused and non-melted particles that were not heated sufficiently but came in contact with the vaporized material or scavenged droplets before their solidification have a relatively thin layer of high activity material deposited on their surface. The composition of such particles depends on the character of the soil, usually a glass-like material formed from silicate minerals. The particle sizes do not depend on the yield but instead on the soil character, as they are based on individual grains of the soil or their clusters. Two types of particles are present; spherical, formed by complete vaporization-condensation or at least melting of the soil particles, with activity distributed evenly through the volume (or with a 10–30% volume of inactive core for larger particles between 0.5–2 mm), and irregular-shaped particles formed at the edges of the fireball by fusion of soil particles, with activity deposited in a thin surface layer. The amount of large irregular particles is insignificant.<8> Particles formed from detonations above or in ocean will contain short-lived radioactive sodium isotopes, and salts from the sea water. Molten silica is a very good solvent for metal oxides and scavenges small particles easily; explosions above silica-containing soils will produce particles with isotopes mixed through their volume. In contrast, coral debris, based on calcium carbonate, tends to adsorb radioactive particles on its surface.<14>
The elements undergo fractionation during particle formation, due to their different volatility. Refractory elements (Sr, Y, Zr, Nb, Ba, La, Ce, Pr, Nd, Pm) form oxides with high boiling points; these precipitate the fastest and at the time of particle solidification, at temperature of 1400 °C, are considered to be fully condensed. Volatile elements (Kr, Xe, I, Br) are not condensed at that temperature. Intermediate elements have their (or their oxides) boiling points close to the solidification temperature of the particles (Rb, Cs, Mo, Ru, Rh, Tc, Sb, Te). The elements in the fireball are present as oxides, unless the temperature is above the decomposition temperature of a given oxide. Less refractory products condense on surfaces of solidified particles. Isotopes with gaseous precursors solidify on the surface of the particles as they are produced by decay.
The largest and therefore the most radioactive particles are deposited by fallout in the first minutes to hours. Smaller particles are carried to higher altitudes and descend slower, reaching ground in less radioactive state as the shortest-time isotopes providing the most activity decay the fastest. The smallest particles can reach stratosphere and stay there for weeks, months, even years and reach the entire hemisphere by atmospheric currents. The high-danger, short-term, localized fallout is deposited primarily downwind from the blast site, in a cigar-shaped area, assuming a constant-strength, constant-direction wind; crosswinds, wind changes, and precipitation greatly alter the fallout pattern.<16>
The condensation of water droplets in the mushroom cloud depends on the amount of condensation nuclei. Too large number of condensation nuclei actually inhibits condensation, as the particles compete for too low relative amount of water vapor.
Chemical reactivity of the elements and their oxides, adsorption properties of their ions, and solubility of their compounds influence their further distribution in the environment after deposition from the atmosphere. Bioaccumulation influences the propagation of fallout radioisotopes in the biosphere.
Radioisotopes
The primary radiation hazard of the fallout is gamma radiation from short-lived radioisotopes, which present the bulk of activity. Within 24 hours from the burst, the fallout gamma radiation level drops 60 times. Longer-life radioisotopes, typically caesium-137 and strontium-90, present a long-term hazard. Intense beta radiation from the fallout particles can cause beta burns shortly after the blast to people and animals coming in contact with the fallout. Ingested or inhaled particles cause internal dose of alpha and beta radiation, which may lead to long-term effects, including cancer."
One can only hope that the Japanese authorities are willing and able to take the most heroic possible measures to prevent a full-scale meltdown of one or more of the GE Mark-1 reactors at Fukushima. It is, however, not clear what can be done at this point. In the longer term, let us hope that no matter what the outcome, people around the world will learn from this experience, following Three Mile Island and Chernobyl, to finally pursue alternatives to nuclear power.