7/23 8:00 EDT TS Bonnie 75 E Marathon FL Max Sust 40 1008 Mb - Heading Right For Deepwater, MS Delta

[hatrack]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT03/refresh/AL0310W_NL_sm2+gif/085015W_NL_sm.gif

000
WTNT33 KNHC 231138
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

...BONNIE NEARING SOUTH FLORIDA...HEAVY SQUALLS APPROACHING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 79.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF MARATHON FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 19 MPH...31 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD
INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER
INLET AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM DESTIN FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY
LOUISIANA


INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF BONNIE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST. BONNIE IS
MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 19 MPH...31 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY...AND MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BONNIE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...IN A SMALL AREA NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE BONNIE MOVES OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHEN
THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER..

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS
1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TODAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAINLY IN SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF THE KEYS IN THE
WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
FLORIDA LATER TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS


END

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/231138.shtml?

[madrchsod]

1. it`s going to be interesting to see what is in those rain drops...

[hatrack]

2. 7/23 11:00 EDT Bonnie 130 SE Ft. Myers Max Sust 40 1008 Mb - Destin To Morgan City Now Under Warning

000
WTNT33 KNHC 231450
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 23 2010

...CENTER OF BONNIE OVER BISCAYNE BAY...MOST OF THE WEATHER ALREADY
INLAND...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 80.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF MIAMI FLORIDA
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SE OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM DESTIN
FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD
INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD
* DESTIN FLORIDA TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA...INCLUDING LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER
INLET AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AT 1100 AM EDT...1500
UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS APPROACHING THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.3
WEST. BONNIE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30
KM/HR. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF BONNIE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AND MOVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BONNIE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO IMPORTANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST WHILE BONNIE IS
CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. AN ELEVATED AUTOMATIC
STATION AT FOWEY ROCKS OFF THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA JUST
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 46 MPH...74 KM/HR WITH GUSTS TO 52
MPH...85 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BUT SHOULD DIMINISH TODAY. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS MAINLY IN SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER SOUTHERN
FLORIDA AND PORTIONS OF THE KEYS IN THE WARNING AREA TODAY.

RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF
WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
FLORIDA LATER TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/ROBERTS