The Simmons-Tierney Bet

[bananas]

I didn't even know about this. Or maybe I forgot about it.
Who do you think will win?
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3738
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simmons%E2%80%93Tierney_bet

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornucopian

In the "peak oil" debate, the views of those labeled as cornucopian are very diverse, ranging from the simplistic "we will never run out of oil" to pessimistic views such as "we might transition to alternatives fast enough to barely avoid the collapse of civilization". The spectrum is broad enough that some who are characterized as cornucopians by doomers might be characterized as peakniks or even doomers by other cornucopians. A typical cornucopian view might be characterized as "there exist viable solutions to the problem of peak oil" or "there is oil for at least 800 years".

[bananas]

1. So far, 7 for Simmons, 2 for Tierney

Poll result (9 votes)
I'm a peak oiler - Simmons will win (7 votes, 78%)
I'm a cornucopian - Tierney will win (2 votes, 22%)

[NoNothing]

2. Guys, be realistic

Regardless of your viewpoint, Simmons is not going to win. For him to win, oil prices would have to more than TRIPLE every day of the year starting tomorrow.

[Nederland]

3. Are people around here that stupid?

I can see agreeing with Simmons a few years back, but at this point it's so obvious he's going down in flames I just have to assume no-one has done the math...

[zipplewrath]

7. Less about the bet than the preambles

I think more of the voting is probably about whether one is "peak oil" or not.

[bananas]

11. Which makes Nederlands question even more pertinent.

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/pertinent

per·ti·nent (pûrtn-nt)
adj.
Having logical precise relevance to the matter at hand.

[phantom power]

4. I wonder if they defined how they would account for inflation.

[NoNothing]

5. If you were to click on the linked WP article, your question would be answered:

"Tierney focused upon that one detail and the two men fashioned the bet accordingly. Their final agreement was a commitment to tabulate every closing price-per-barrel of oil for each market day of 2010, then average out those prices for the entire year from January 1 through December 31, adjusted for inflation to 2005 prices."

[phantom power]

6. Well, yes, but my question is: adjusted how?

[NoNothing]

8. There are published statistics that calculate the rate of inflation

So if the statistics show, for example, that the rate of inflation over that time period was 10%, you simply subtract 10%.

[phantom power]

9. Yes, but inflation stats are like unemployment stats. There are different ones to choose from:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation#Measures

I assume Simmons won't win regardless, but it will make a significant difference in their final numbers. In some price range, it would make the difference between who won or lost. Just wondering if they agreed on a rate to use.

[GliderGuider]

10. Speaking as one who won such a bet by a fluke

I no longer think that problems like this are amenable to single-factor analysis like simple cost tabulations, whether inflation-adjusted or not. There's a complex multivariate feedback between global economics (itself a system of undecidable complexity), oil production, technology in a variety of arenas, psychological and social adjustments etc.

All I'm willing to say any more is that oil is still crucial to the global economy, and static or declining production levels will have a wide variety of unpredictable, discontinuous and non-linear effects -- most of which will be recognized only in hindsight and few of which will be seen as "good" when viewed from street level.

[Nederland]

13. Speaking as one who lost that bet...

...I agree :)

It's a shame the PeakOil forum got deleted and all those posts are now lost. At least, I can't find them.

[anthroguy101]

12. I voted Simmons because I wish for it...

I know he's going to lose, though, unless something epic happens in the next few months.