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As a result of the insufficient February to August 2009 long rains, humanitarian agencies have forecast a 2010 main maize harvest of 1.9 million metric tonnes, about 25 per cent below the four-year average. The Usaid-funded Famine Early Warning Systems Network (Fews Net) that prepared the report says that the main harvest, which typically occurs between October 2009 and January 2010, constitutes more than 50 per cent of Kenya’s annual national maize production.
The Kenya Food Security Steering Group projects that 3.8 million individuals require emergency food aid between September 2009 and February 2010, representing a 32 per cent increase since February 2009. Of this, about 2.5 million are chronically food insecure individuals in urban areas, 100,000 displaced people, 1.5 million primary school pupils in drought-hit areas and 2 million rural HIV/Aids patients.
The short rains from September to date, the report says, though moderately improving water and pasture availability in some pastoral areas, cannot help the country attain rapid or long-term food security. "Consecutive seasons of sufficient rainfall are required for pastoral populations to replace livestock.”
Humanitarian aid agencies including Fews Net are predicting only limited and temporary food security improvements following the main maize harvest in early 2010, with subsequent declines in food security starting in April 2010 when limited food stocks associated with a poor crop production are depleted.
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http://www.nation.co.ke/News/-/1056/824730/-/vo4hq8/-/