Global temperatures will rise 6C by end of century, say scientists

[joshcryer]

Most comprehensive CO2 study to date is expected to give greater urgency to diplomatic manoeuvring before Copenhagen

Global temperatures are on a path to rise by an average of 6C by the end of the century as CO2 emissions increase and the Earth's natural ability to absorb the gas declines, according to a major new study.

Scientists said that CO2 emissions have risen by 29% in the past decade alone and called for urgent action by leaders at the UN climate talks in Copenhagen to agree drastic emissions cuts in order to avoid dangerous climate change.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/17/global-temperature-rise

I believe this is the paper but VPN access to the school is down, will post excerpts later if this is it: http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/abs/ngeo689.html

[kristopher]

1. That's probably not it. - But I'm downloading it now to see

Nature Geoscience
Published online: 17 November 2009 | doi:10.1038/ngeo689

Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide

Corinne Le Quéré, Michael R. Raupach, Josep G. Canadell, Gregg Marland et al.24

Abstract

Efforts to control climate change require the stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This can only be achieved through a drastic reduction of global CO2 emissions. Yet fossil fuel emissions increased by 29% between 2000 and 2008, in conjunction with increased contributions from emerging economies, from the production and international trade of goods and services, and from the use of coal as a fuel source. In contrast, emissions from land-use changes were nearly constant. Between 1959 and 2008, 43% of each year's CO2 emissions remained in the atmosphere on average; the rest was absorbed by carbon sinks on land and in the oceans. In the past 50 years, the fraction of CO2 emissions that remains in the atmosphere each year has likely increased, from about 40% to 45%, and models suggest that this trend was caused by a decrease in the uptake of CO2 by the carbon sinks in response to climate change and variability. Changes in the CO2 sinks are highly uncertain, but they could have a significant influence on future atmospheric CO2 levels. It is therefore crucial to reduce the uncertainties.

[kristopher]

2. For some reason it won't accept our library's access..

have to work it out later.

[joshcryer]

4. Ahh, then it may be a problem with their site, they're not accepting UCCS either...

...herm.

[joshcryer]

3. Only one that I saw with Corinne Le Quéré as an author. I wish these articles would give up DOI....

...so we wouldn't have to scrounge for the proper paper.

[kristopher]

5. That is the referenced paper.

It is the same title; I hadn't read the guardian article before I tried to download as I always prefer original material.

That number is an extreme outlier, so it needs to be vetted.

[joshcryer]

6. "That number is an extreme outlier, so it needs to be vetted."

Is it cited in the paper or is this an opinion from a scientist being interviewed by a newspaper?

If it is cited in the paper is it the upper bound of a number?

My impression is that it has been observed that the sequestering ability of nature has been or will be soon compromised. Where she gets the 6C figure is not for me to assume because I cannot get access to the paper.

[joshcryer]

7. Reading Wolfgang's paper I was amused by this bit:

Another possible approach is to add more data through the combination of many detailed regional studies such as the ones by Schuster and Watson (2007) and Le Quéré et al.

This paper is exactly that. :)

[joshcryer]

8. Still haven't accessed the paper...