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But I actually understand the elements quite well, being an engineering type. You are neglecting transmission grid losses, for example. 30 % out of a coal fired plant? Without MHD? Burning at 1800 deg C? Wow. Not sure I believe that. The newer equipment might be getting as much as 30% ... I can't swear it isn't ... we do have better designs now ... but that older legacy gear doesn't operate that well for sure and is unlikely to be decommissioned any time soon. (Not sure where it stands today but back in the late 80's it took an average of 11 years to get a power plant turbine blade assembly delivered ... from award of contract to initial operating capability. I'm pretty sure it isn't that bad now ... but I have not been close to power production as an engineering discipline in a long time. It was never my field, really, but I studied it in grad school and had lots of friends in the biz. But I digress.)
You are leaving out a lot of steps from lighting the big burner to charging that battery. Transmission grid losses are significant to the equation. There are additional thermal losses incurred in the charging equipment itself. Transformers get hot. That energy comes from some where ya know. And transformers, too, lose efficiency as they age. Batteries themselves degrade with charging and draining, introducing more inefficiencies expressed as thermal losses and dwindling performance. And I think you are basing your estimates on bright, shiny new gear, but any real systems analysis has to be based on average performance over the operational life time of the system. (30%? That amazes me. I haven't kept up on power plant technology ... how do they GET that? Back in 1977, I was doing trying to thesis work on Magneto Hydrodynamics. Burn that stuff at more like 2700 deg C or so and Q is a lot higher. The exhaust is a plasma. Run the plasma through a direct energy conversion grid ... the charged flowing gas is a kind of electric current so we can induce voltage, drawing out energy as electric potential which cools the gas down enough to not burn through the heat exchanger system that delivers steam to the turbine. That got your natural gas fired fuel burning plant into the 30%-35% thermo efficiency range, if I recall correctly. The Soviet Union actually built one or two of these ... not sure how it worked out for them. We dropped it early in the Reagan years. **sigh**)
And while I agree algae seems promising, my support amd enthusiasm for it largely derives from my perception that it has been under-studied. (I cheer lead for it whenever I can, for that reason.) I am not sure I buy your C02 argument, since I have read a couple of articles about techniques for concentrating atmospheric C02 that looked promising, etc. But there are a lot of ways for that concept to NOT pan out, so I'm not sure you are wrong, either. I just think the basic features of the solution (snag C02 from the air) are really exciting, and it deserves further study.
I concur with you re hydrogen. Expensive to make, tricky to store, etc.
Wind power and solar have promise, but we have little experience at building them up to scale and so it is difficult to predict at what rate they can take grid load off the shoulders of fossil fuel burners and what the life cycle costs are.
Life cycle costs are measured in energy, too. Back in the 70s, when I was a physics and mechanical engineering grad student a big debate broke out between certain engineering cliques on campus. It was an argument fueled by a couple of articles in trade journals. The basic question was this: When you add up the energy cost of constructing a nuclear power plant, fueling it, operating it, and disposing of its waste over the course of its operational life time, do you wind up getting more energy out of the system than you put in? Now, I would have thought that would have been an easy question to answer, and that it would be a slam dunk win for the nuclear engineering boys. But it apparently wasn't. As the discussions dragged out over coffee in the commons room and in lecture halls over a period of about a year, it became clear the answer was ... uncertain. Both sides of the case were able to present strong arguments for their point of view and lots of data and crunched numbers to back up their case.
And that was shocking to me, especially given the magnitude of investment. Then Three Mile Island happened and the debate kinda went away.
There's a moral in that anecdote. Not sure it applies directly, but it might help you understand why I regard nuclear power with more suspicion than any of the other options we have regarded in this thread. And we haven't even started talking about its political down sides, which include issues of weaponization and proliferation of weapons technologies.
Trav
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