Oil sands output to double by 2013: report

[Javaman]

http://www.nationalpost.com/todays-paper/story.html?id=1957368

Output from Canada's oil sands will double and profits in the oil business will triple by 2013 as rising crude prices kick-start mega-projects delayed by the economic downturn, the Conference Board of Canada said yesterday.

The board's summer outlook for the Canadian oil-extraction business forecasts that crude prices driven south by the economic downturn will slash pre-tax profits for Canadian producers by 24% from the record $15.3-billion in 2008 to $11.6-billion in 2009.

But as the U.S. economy recovers, rising oil demand will lift prices to the point that Canada's expensive and controversial oil sands projects become profitable again, said board economist Todd Crawford.

"The Canadian oil industry has long been a boom or bust industry, and that has been the case over the past year ... but stimulus packages around the world will lead to improved performance starting in 2010.

(Given the fact that currently EROEI is rougly 1.5 to 1, how they are going to "triple" profit is beyond me. The only thing, to me, that will be tripled will be the damage on the local environment up there.)

[Dogmudgeon]

1. How they'll triple profit

All they have to do is to wait until the price of oil hits $100/bbl or so, which is a good guess for the next (semi-) stable price.

Shale and sand oil are only profitable when the price of oil is high. But they are by far the most common forms oil comes in.

--d!

[JohnWxy]

2. I guess that means we will be doubling our imports of Alberta tar sands oil. GHG emissions 3x

deep drilled "sweet" crude. NOTE to EPA: Be sure to ignore this when evaluating petroleum GHG emissions.

[Dead_Parrot]

3. EROEI...

They tend to use gas to power the extraction process, which costs a lot less than oil per GJ. If you use 1GJ of gas to produce 1GJ of oil you have an energy return of 1:1, but a financial return of about 3:1.

It's not sane, but it makes money. :(

[joshcryer]

4. These secondary sources for oil are the worst. Wait until they tap the Green River Basin.

Going to be fun times then. Beetles and lack of rain will be the least of our worries. :(