Aus. Bureau of Meteorology - El Nino Could Develop Within Weeks - Odds Better Than 50% @ Present

[hatrack]

El Nino is driven by an abnormal warming of the eastern Pacific and the forecaster said conditions were favorable for a switch to El Nino conditions during June to August 2009.

The forecast is the latest warning of the increased chances of El Nino developing after months of rising ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific. Australia's Bureau of Meteorology said on Wednesday that if recent trends in Pacific climate patterns held up, there was an above-50 percent chance an El Nino event would be established by July.

El Nino occurs when the eastern Pacific Ocean heats up, with warmer, moist air moving east, leaving drier weather in the western Pacific and Australia and putting crops at risk of failure.

The most devastating El Nino was in 1997/98, when it caused drought in Australia and Indonesia and floods in Peru and Ecuador. El Nino can also bring wetter weather to parts of the United States and can affect the monsoon in India.

EDIT

http://planetark.org/enviro-news/item/53281